Lessons Learnt – Matchday One

With Matchday Two kicking off tonight, we cast are eye back over the opening games of Matchday One so far and assess the lessons learnt from the World Cup so far, including the death of tika-taka football, the Dutch new breed of total football and the big name star players producing for Fantasy teams.

Goals, goals and more goals

This world cup has been filled with goals. An incredible 44 times the ball has found the back of the net and the goals per game average is three. There has only been two games with less than three goals scored and only the one goalless draw. Compared to 2010 where a total of 25 goals were scored in the opening 16 matches the 2014 edition has been a goal fest, in fact if the scoring rate continues this will be the highest scoring World Cup ever.

On the flipside these high scoring games have left defences conceding often, only four teams have managed a shutout thus far and in games that only reward defensive points for clean sheets there are few defenders that have scored fantasy points, even if you splashed the cash on the expensive attacking defenders like Dani Alves, Alba and Zabaleta you were doubly disappointed they all failed to keep a clean sheet in their opening games and were unable to justify their hefty price tags with no attacking points to make up for lack defensive returns. With all the goals scored so far and the heat, humidity and weather conditions not as much of an issue than predicted, fantasy managers should continue to target the big name goal scorers and look to mid-price and budget defenders to fill out their Matchday Two squads.

The big names have delivered

Lionel Messi, Neymar, Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben they have all lived up to their big expectations and their hefty price tags, delivering goals a plenty. Even the lesser star names if you can call them that in Mario Balotelli, Karim Benzema, Alexis Sanchez, Thomas Muller & James Rodriguez have delivered goals. With star players actually performing at this World Cup, it may favour the casual fantasy manager over the more involved manager. Anyone who splashed the cash on as many big name players as possible before filling out the rest of the team with cheapest possible options have been rewarded with this tactic. Whilst those more involved managers who attempted to flesh out a well rounded squad with sleepers and underrated players, valuing depth on the bench have likely been disappointed by their points totals, especially from mid-price defenders.

The exception to the big names performing is Christiano Ronaldo. The current Ballon D’or holder was unable to carry Portugal single handily past a strong Germany side as he did against Sweden to take the Portuguese to the finals. He wasn’t helped by Pepe’s first half dismissal, but whilst Messi popped up with the winning goal and Neymar notched twice, Ronaldo and his owners will have been left disappointed.

The death of tika-taka?

That statement may be slightly premature but it has been suggested that there has been a decline in the efficiency of a tika-taka game plan. Two years ago Barcelona famed for their reliance of the tika-taka game plan were destroyed 7-0 over two legs by the more direct approach of Bayern Munich in the champions league semi-final, while a year later Bayern now under the guidance of Pep Guardiola who implemented the same possession based system were promptly beaten by the pace on the counter attack and clinically finishing of Real Madrid 5-0 on aggregate in another semi-final.

The Spanish national side is not immune to this either,  their championed possession based game has won them three major tournaments in a row but being beaten emphatically 3-0 in the Confederations Cup last summer by an imposing physical Brazilian side that were able to counter attack at pace now seems to be the blueprint on how to defeat the Spanish national team. On their run to their world cup final victory four years ago Spain won four consecutive knockout games without conceding. Two years later they won five consecutive games without conceding to be crowned European champions. Their tika-taka possession based style had provided the base for defensive shutouts, armed with that knowledge most fantasy managers filling out their defensive line pre-tournament will have gone for at least one Spanish defensive asset, possibly even two.  Managers may need to reassess their worth and may need to look elsewhere for game week two replacements as Spain come up against another fast paced counter attacking side in Chile.

Holland play a new breed of total football

After the Dutch fans, it must be the United fans that will be most happy about Netherlands 5-1 hammering of defending champion Spain. Louis van Gaal is clearly a manager with plenty of tactical nous, despite losing his most influential player Kevin Stroman pre-tournament. Van Gaal has worked with the players available and devised a formation to maximise their potential and it worked Friday evening as Holland lined up in a 5-3-2 formation and destroyed the defending champs.

Playing with two up front is a rare occurrence in modern football, Ramos and Pique are certainly not used to playing against two strikers as most teams pack the midfield in an attempt to stifle Spain’s tika-taka game plan, usually to little effect. Working in tandem Van Persie and Robben were able to tear them apart, constantly dragging them out of position leaving massive gaps to for the Dutch to exploit. Both strikers scored a brace and any fantasy managers without them in their line-ups must be seriously considering their acquisitions even if it involves a major team overhaul to afford them. The pair have Australia up next, the lowest ranked team in the tournament and knowing that a win will effectively guarantee them a place in the last 16, with this new brand of attacking total football playing two up front could be a breath of fresh in air in this tournament. Expect more goals from the Dutch.

Germany team selection becomes clearer

Probably the most eagerly anticipated lineup announcement in the opening round for fantasy managers, Germany are able to destroy teams and score plenty of goals (top scorers in qualifying with 36), yet with so many key players struggling through injuries or in poor form and questions surrounding choice of personnel and formation, many Fantasy managers will have steered clear of German assets until a preferred team selection is known, especially since their opening game was the hardest against group rivals Portugal.

The situation got clearer Monday evening as Loew named his side, lots of managers will have been instantly disappointed as popular sleeper pick Erik Durm was left out of the starting lineup. Philipp Lahm is now officially a defensive midfielder having been played in that role even though Germany are lacking options at full back. Mario Gotze was the preferred replacement on the left for the injured Marco Reus whilst Mesut Ozil was shifted wide right to accommodate Toni Kroos playing in the centre.

Ozil owners will be disappointed as penalty duties that were his during the qualifiers seem to have been passed on to Thomas Muller, who  dispatched his spot kick clinically and was the nominal striker playing in a false 9 role. Muller will clearly be integral to the team throughout the tournament. Classified as a midfielder in most games, with penalty duties and having just scored a hatrick, Muller has staked his claim to be included in everyone’s Fantasy team especially with the pair of easier games against Ghana and USA still to come.

Defensive play is rewarded in the official FIFA McDonalds game

They say defence wins championships, well in the official FIFA McDonalds game it looks like defences will win Fantasy titles. The games scoring system does seem to favour strong defensive displays with points easily accumulated for blocked shots and balls recovered, whilst the supposed hardest thing in football, putting the ball in goal, is barely rewarded with just five points. n example of this was Ramos, after being given the run around by the Dutch and conceding fove goals he still ended with nine points whilst his tormentor Van Persie only finished with 12 points after his brace. I assume this was meant to balance the game so defensive players would be as valuable as forwards, especially in the latter stages with fewer options available to choose from as team are knocked out, this would keep the game competitive allowing players lots of differential options.

So now we know how important the combative center halves and defensive midfielders are, we just need a little change of tactics heading into the transfer window before picking our last 16 squad. Fantasy managers love a challenge and this is just another as they look to exploit a slightly different scoring system. Even if goal scorers have been devalued to some extend in this point scoring system, in a World Cup that has had only one goalless draw at the time of writing and averaging just over three goals per game, surely the top goal scorers will still have some part to play in our Fantasy teams?