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Europa League Hangovers – Fact or Fiction

Participation in the Europa League is widely seen as detrimental to Premier League performance. Unlike the Champions League and the League Cup, which are played on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the Europa League requires sides to play on Thursday nights. This leaves teams with limited time to recover and prepare for a Premier League fixture on a Sunday, whilst they also often have to contend with long trips home. Poor results in games which fall a couple of days after Europa League action, then, are often put down to ‘Europa League Hangovers’. But is this hangover fact or fiction?

By comparing the Premier League results of Europa League sides in matches after they had played in Europe, and in those they hadn’t, I should be able to tell whether this hangover is real. I’m also interested in whether there is more of an impact on league results when teams play away in Europe. I’ve concentrated on the last couple of seasons, from 2012-13 to now. With 67 Premier League matches after a Europa League game on a Thursday in that time, I ought to have a good enough sample size to draw some conclusions. However, I’ve not looked at fixture difficulty (whether sides were winning or losing games they would be expected to) or the difference made by squad rotation in this article, which would perhaps inform it even more, as would looking at even more matches.

The specific relevance of this article to Fantasy Football, and the reason I’m writing it now, is the excellent run of fixtures for both Everton and Tottenham, going up to their meeting in Gameweek 13. These two are the remaining Premier League sides in the Europa League this season, though if Liverpool or Manchester City drop out of the Champions League, they could also feature after Christmas.

Everton’s next four:

Burnley (away), Swansea (home), Sunderland (away), West Ham (home)

Tottenham’s next four:

Newcastle (home), Aston Villa (away), Stoke (home), Hull (away)

The italicised fixtures fall on weekends after a Europa League match. If Europa League Hangovers are a genuine phenomenon, it may affect Tottenham and Everton’s performance this week, perhaps reducing the appeal of bringing in popular Fantasy targets such as Leighton Baines, Seamus Coleman, Phil Jagielka, Ross Barkley, Romelu Lukaku, Christian Eriksen and Nacer Chadli.

The 2014/15 Season

Given that the Europa League is still in its early stages, I’ve not given this season the same treatment as the previous two, though I have used its data in my overall statistics. However, here’s how the teams involved have got on so far:

Hull City

Although they failed to make it through to the group stages, Hull still had a couple of league matches after midweek Europa clashes. They drew one 1-1 at home to Stoke, and lost the other 2-1 at Aston Villa. Neither of these are disastrous results, but given that their only other defeat so far has been against Manchester City, they can both be seen as slightly disappointing, given their decent early form.

Everton

Everton have lost both games after Europa League action so far, losing 2-1 at Old Trafford, and, more worryingly, being beaten 3-2 at home by Crystal Palace. Roberto Martinez has named a fairly strong line-up in both their Europa League matches so far, and his focus on doing well in the competition may continue to have an adverse effect on their league performance.

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs are the only team to have won a Premier League match following a Europa League game so far. They have dispatched QPR 4-0, and Southampton 1-0, both at White Hart Lane. However, they have also suffered two of their three defeats so far after Europa League action, with their other reverse, like Hull, coming against a four-goal Manchester City. Their most surprising league defeat so far, 1-0 at home to West Brom, came a couple days after a trip to Belgrade.

Their 3-0 loss to Liverpool, meanwhile, was reminiscent of the 5-0 hammering they received from Suarez and co. at the Lane last season. That match also came after playing in the Europa League, as did three of their four defeats to sides that finished outside the top four last season. These were home defeats to West Ham and Newcastle, and a loss away at Norwich.

The 2013/14 Season

For each side that took part, I’ve included the number of games won, drawn and lost in the matches after a Europa League game, as well as in their remaining Premier League matches. To make things simpler when comparing the two, I’ve also included the goals per game (GPG), goals conceded per game (CPG) and points won per Game (PPG) for each, rounded to two decimal places.

Swansea City

Premier League Matches after a Europa League Game (EL)– Won 2, Drawn 4, Lost 4
12 Goals Scored (1.2 GPG), 15 Goals Conceded (1.5 CPG), 10 Points (1.0 PPG)

Other Premier League Matches (Other) – Won 9, Drawn 5, Lost 14
42 Goals Scored (1.5 PG), 39 Goals Conceded (1.39 PG), 32 Points (1.14 PG)

Tottenham Hotspur

After EL – Won 5, Drawn 1, Lost 6
9 Goals Scored (0.75 GPG), 15 Goals Conceded (1.25 CPG), 16 Points (1.33 PPG)

Other – Won 17, Drawn 5, Lost 5.
46 Goals Scored (1.7 GPG), 36 Goals Conceded (1.33 CPG), 53 Points (1.96 PPG)

The 2012/13 Season

Chelsea (knockout stages only after they dropped out of the Champions League)

After EL – Won 4, Drawn 0, Lost 1
7 Goals Scored (1.4 GPG), 3 Goals Conceded (0.6 CPG), 12 Points (2.4 PPG)

Other – Won 18, Drawn 9, Lost 6
68 Goals Scored (2.06 GPG), 32 Goals Conceded (0.97 CPG), 63 Points (1.9 PPG)

Newcastle United

After EL – Won 5, Drawn 1, Lost 7
13 Goals Scored (1 GPG), 20 Goals Conceded (1.54 CPG), 16 Points (1.23 PPG)

Other – Won 6, Drawn 8, Lost 12
32 Goals Scored (1.28 GPG), 45 Goals Conceded (1.8 CPG), 25 Points (1 PPG)

Liverpool

After EL – Won 2, Drawn 5, Lost 2
14 Goals Scored (1.55 GPG), 11 Goals Conceded (1.22 CPG), 11 Points (1.22 PPG)

Other – Won 14, Drawn 5, Lost 7
57 Goals Scored (1.96 GPG), 32 Goals Conceded (1.1 CPG), 50 Points (1.72 PPG)

Tottenham Hotspur

After EL – Won 5, Drawn 1, Lost 4
18 Goals Scored (1.8GPG), 15 Goals Conceded (1.5 CPG), 16 Points (1.6 PPG)

Other – Won 16, Drawn 8, Lost 4
46 Goals Scored (1.64 GPG), 31 Goals Conceded (1.11 CPG), 55 Points (1.96 PPG)

Combined Statistics

After EL –Won 25, Drawn 13, Lost 29
83 Goals Scored (1.24 GPG), 91 Goals Conceded (1.36 CPG), 88 Points (1.31 PPG)

Other – Won 85, Drawn 50, Lost 51
320 Goals Scored (1.72 GPG), 243 Goals Conceded (1.31 CPG), 305 Points (1.64 PPG)

After Home EL Games –Won 8, Drawn 6, Lost 20
28 Goals Scored (0.82 GPG), 55 Goals Conceded (1.62 CPG), 30 Points (0.88 PPG)

After Away EL Games –Won 17, Drawn 6, Lost 9
55 Goals Scored (1.67 GPG), 36 Goals Conceded (1.09 CPG), 58 Points (1.76 PPG)

Conclusions

On this evidence, there certainly is such a thing as a Europa League Hangover. Taking into account the results of every Premier League side to play in the Europa League in the past couple of years, we can see a marked difference between matches played after a Europa League game, and those which were not. On average, after playing a Europa League game, teams scored fewer goals, conceded more, and gained fewer points. It is also worth mentioning that, of the 67 Premier League matches after a Europa League game, 39 saw the Europa League side at home, and in 28 they were away from home. That the combined ‘After EL’ statistics have the benefit of home advantage and still come up short seems fairly conclusive proof to me.

Interestingly though, the Hangover is not exacerbated by away trips in the Europa League, as I expected it would be. In fact, teams performed a lot worse after Europa League games at home! They scored significantly fewer goals, conceded significantly more, and got significantly fewer points. If it weren’t for Chelsea, who won three of their four league matches after a home Europa League tie, the statistics would be even more damning. To an extent, this might be explained by the sample size, as whilst 18 of 34 league games after home Europa League matches were also at home, 21 of 33 games after away Europa League matches were then at home. This shift towards home advantage might go some way to explaining the disparity, but it is not enough on its own. On this evidence, it is no better to have a home game on a Thursday night than an away one.

Looking at clubs individually, we can see further confirmation of the Europa League Hangover. Across 2012-13 and 2013-14, five of the six sides scored fewer goals per game after Europa League involvement, whilst four of the six sides earned fewer points per game in those matches. One of the sides with a better record after Europa League matches was Chelsea, though, and the small number of games they played, as well as the favourable fixtures they had, skews the picture somewhat. Nonetheless, their quality and strength in depth ensured they had few problems with competing on two fronts.

The other surprising anomaly was Newcastle, who actually averaged a slightly better record in games after Europa League ties. They scored fewer goals per game but, notably, also conceded fewer. This tightening up can also be seen in Tottenham’s record after Europa matches last season, as they scored a lot less frequently, but also conceded fewer goals. Looking across the board, the Europa League Hangover seems to have had a marginal impact on goals conceded per game, and so it could well be that defenders will be less affected in Fantasy terms. Perhaps fatigue, or a lack of preparation, leads to a more cautious approach in matches after Europa League ties, with tired legs sitting back a little more, or simply struggling to break down the opposition.

In Fantasy terms, I think you should feel free to pick up Everton and Spurs defenders, given that goals conceded statistics aren’t particularly affected by the hangover. For attackers, however, it is definitely something to be aware of in the future. Last season, Tottenham had the biggest drop off in points per game between their record after Europa League matches and in other games. The 1-0 defeat to West Brom could be seen as a warning sign that this might continue, and I would not be too surprised to see them upset at home by Newcastle or Stoke.

22 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Fantastic analysis....especially surprised by form after home Europa games. Wonder why they take such a strain on a team? Fascinating stuff.

    1. Ludo
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 4 months ago

      It's really quite puzzling. I was initially going to look at matches all the way back to 2009-10, when the Europa League format started, but I wanted to get it done sooner. Would be interesting to see whether or not the trend would still be as pronounced with more data. Can't say I have a good explanation for it, but it's worth monitoring if Spurs slip up this weekend!

      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 4 months ago

        Great stuff ludo thanks. U think the last two years is probably the best sample anyway given teams didn't really take the EL seriously until the last couple of years.

        As someone who was contemplating doubling up on spurs midfield with chadli and eriksen this article is well worth considering.

        If wonder is there a similar effect wit the CL?

        1. Ludo
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 4 months ago

          I've not done the research, but I wouldn't have thought the CL has the same effect. Playing CL on a Wednesday and PL on a Saturday is the same as a Thursday/Sunday gap, but with Tuesday matches, you have an extra day half the time. Not to mention that CL teams often follow a Wednesday match with one on a Sunday or Monday for TV purposes. They also have bigger squads, and simply more player quality to ensure that even with a drop off, they still get results.

  2. A.
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Wow, good stuff.

    Chelsea clearly don't get an EL hangover, but id say the reasons for that are obvious, larger squad filled with more quality. Being used to coping with the demands of the CL, the EL posed no problem.

    As for the rest, well we can see that Liverpool and Spurs have been largely affected, as a Pool fan i noticed it strongly in 12/13, the squad didnt have enough quality to cope with both competitions at the time.
    Everton are playing a strong team in many of their EL games, without a huge amount of rotation, they could be in line for some fatigue issues.

  3. mookie
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Great work, thanks for sharing.

  4. The Fantastic Mr Fox
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Really good read Ludo

  5. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Been meaning to do some research on this for a long time, glad I never got round to it as this knocks whatever I'd have done into a cocked hat! 😀

  6. Think Tank
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Great analysis, thanks.

  7. John t penguin
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Well done
    If it helps my team motherwell have lost 8 out of 10 games since last Europa match

    1. Dino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 4 months ago

      LOL

  8. Hearts of Olofinjana
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Good work Ludo!

  9. Mr Pink
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Great work! The only thing that puzzles me is that it seems like playing away in EL improves the subsequent PL results, which makes little sense. It could be an indication that your sample is still a bit small to draw big conclusions yet, although I do agree that the overweight of home game in PL after away game in EL might explain some of that.

    Thanks!

  10. Ludo
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Cheers all! 🙂

  11. FPL price manipulators are …
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Brilliant. Great work

  12. OShaughnessy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    This is simply smashing...

    So glad that every time I spouted off anecdotal evidence about post Europa League let down it wasn't in vain.

  13. Saniul
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    My contender for best Community article of the month.

    I've been raring to bring Lukaku/Chadli in for Costa/Di Maria, but now, this surely makes me think again.

  14. Red Devil Swede
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Superb piece of work. Confirming the suspicions!

  15. Grumpy Camel
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Love it, great analysis

  16. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Article of the month for me. Great work taking in the past few years as well. Cheers.

  17. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Terrific work Ludo, really appreciate it 🙂

  18. AM
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 4 months ago

    Great work

    Suggestion pl ivanovic or Neil Taylor vs LEI