Community Submissions

The Case For The 8.5 Keeper Combo

With 10 weeks of the season done and dusted, I once again look at my overall rank and realize I’m not the brightest at this game. But if there’s one thing I’ve learned it’s to never spend more than 8.5 on goalkeepers before the January transfer window again.

Over the course of a season, goalkeepers who play full minutes will typically wind up with fewer than 25 points separating them, as was the case last season. There really is little to be gained in getting better keepers, particularly early in the season. This research aims to show how investing in a 4.5 keeper and his 4.0 deputy from the same team can still offer strong points potential and free up cash for more explosive assets in outfield positions.

Here are the top  8.5 goalkeeper combinations.

Ben Foster and Boaz Myhill

Team: West Brom

Total Points: 37

Ten games in and my gambit on the 8.5 combination of West Brom’s number one and two stoppers Ben Foster and Boaz Myhill has worked ridiculously well.

The points tally for my budget  combination shows its potency. Foster and Myhill are currently tied fourth in goalkeeper scoring with Manchester City’s Joe Hart. And the Foster-Myhill axis is just eight points behind the top-placed keeper, Southampton’s Frazer Forster.

The combination also stacks up well against those opting for a more expensive rotating combination of Foster and another 4.5 goalkeeper. Arguably those favouring this rotating option would have missed out on Foster’s surprise away clean sheet points against Southampton and Tottenham.

Tom Heaton and  Matt Gilks

Team: Burnley

Total Points: 33

So far Gilks has not been called into action, with all 33 points from this combination coming from Heaton. He is another who has benefited from a shaky defence, gaining eight points from his 32 saves so far this season. But early on he also earned surprise clean sheets. Of his three shut-outs, one was against Manchester United and another was against Crystal Palace away. With a kind run of games from Gameweek 11 there is every chance further clean sheet points could be forthcoming.

Rob Green and Alex McCarthy

Team: QPR

Total Points: 32

Another factor in the argument for a cheap goalkeeping combination is that cheaper keepers tend to be in front of weaker defences and are called on to make more saves. Rob Green (4.5), for example, sits on 30 points. He has gained just eight points from clean sheets, but an impressive 10 from saves. A combination of Green and his deputy Alex McCarthy (4.0) is another worth considering.

Tim Krul and Rob Elliot

Team: Newcastle

Total Points: 31

Newcastle are another team with a good run of fixtures after the international break in November. After a tricky start Newcastle’s defence has settled down offering strong clean sheet potential for Krul and his deputy Elliot, who has yet to be called in Premier League action this season. So far Newcastle have three clean sheets, including one against Liverpool in Gameweek 10. What lets this combination down, though, is save points compared to shakier defences. Krul has managed five save points so far, but with just 22 stops, is far behind the likes of Green.

Conclusion

The benefits of the 8.5 combination are:

  • No rotation angst trying to decide which keeper to start
  • You get all the away clean sheets and surprise clean sheets against good teams you would otherwise miss if rotating home-away and/or based on fixtures
  • No injury angst as if your starting keeper is injured, the backup steps in seamlessly (instead of having a non-playing 4.0 from another team, for example)
  • More money in the bank for the rest of your team
  • Most likely, at least average points from your goalkeepers compared to other goalkeepers’ points
  • No wasting transfers on keepers until the January wildcard.

The pitfalls of the 8.5m combination are:

  • It is worth pointing out there is a risk that both the starting goalkeeper and his deputy will be injured (as in Hull this season and Southampton last season). This is rare but a risk to consider.
  • The potency of a cheap goalkeeping pair compared to heavy-hitting stoppers can change markedly in the second half of the season. This tactic is best utilised before the January transfer window. Later in the season top teams tend to get more clean sheets. Plus missing and double Gameweeks come into play and it is advisable to have two playing keepers from different teams to take advantage.

Heels_Over_Head Knocks & Niggles Draft League Commissioner since 2013/14 season. This league is on Fantrax.com and unrelated to FPL. 2017/18 season membership is full up. If you are interested in joining for the 2018/19 season, read more here: http://tinyurl.com/ybefwvbd

60 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Hope you don't mind my bit of editing jiggery pokery.

    Really good article. Those with a 8.5m combo can feel justifiably smug after reading this. I've oddly ended up with Krul and Gilks (long story involving DDG early on) so am halfway there. 😉

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I write for a living. No worries about any editing, I'm used to it 😀

      Thanks for posting the article so quick I nearly missed that it was posted !

      1. Heels_Over_Head
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Wow, I just looked at the editing. Apologies for leaving you with that much work to do Jonty. You could have just sent it back to me with comments for revision 😉

        On the other hand, maybe I should hire you to edit me whenever I actually finish one of the two books I'm now working on as that was quite well edited, actually.

  2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Yes, but who would have picked Foster and Myhill from week one? I am not convinced. Sorry.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      There are plenty that went for the 8.5m combo early on. Krul and Elliot was a popular one. Also its a good read for those wildcarding and looking to free up money.

    2. Zombie
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I did 😎

    3. Heels_Over_Head
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Well I did despite some lad who won't consider me for his long and winding road scoffing at me something fierce when I mentioned it 😉

  3. Christina.
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Heaton + McCarthy here. For a moment I thought I was onto something with Burnley being tight at the back and recently McCarthy ousting Green, then Burnley picked up injuries in midfield and started conceding bucket loads. McCarthy got injured and list his place.

    Im still hoping.

    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      *lost

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Like me with Krul I think you may get lucky as Burnley have a good run of games coming up. They won't be facing the likes of Sanchez for a while.

        1. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah, Burnley have 4/6 at home with qpr & Stoke away.

          If McCarthy breaks into QPR first team it would be brilliant as he would cover Burnley's nightmare run spurs/LIVP/manc/newc with WBA/ars/CPAL/SWA

  4. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Nice work. Shame i don't have a WC 🙁

  5. A.T
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Id be interested to know how the popular keeper combos have fared. Good article though, it's a tactic I think I'll go with next season.

    1. Shifty
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I know I was burned by keeper rotation last season, think it was Boruc+Foster who had perfect home away rotation. Ended up missing a bulk of clean sheets. Swore to never go there again.

    2. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Me too. Post January I'll probably keep Krul and go for another 4.5m, as the article points out two keepers are needed post Christmas. Foster/Krul is the combination I like....I'm not so fussed with rotation based on fixtures....just luck of the draw with some of their clean sheets so far.

      Boruc/Mannone was an outstanding combo last year post Christmas....they both got clean sheets most weeks.

    3. Albertini
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I've gone with Foster/Krul from gw1 and manage to get 37 points out of a possible 41. Not bad but I would prefer to have gone with Foster/Myhill and save those 0.5 to upgrade elsewhere.

      Good post!

  6. Shifty
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Krul + Elliott owner here and have been quite pleased. It helped me get Pelle when my rival was 0.5 short of him 😀

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      And here - though WC'd last week and got Jakupovic in for Elliott purely for this weeks game...

  7. EmreCan Hustle
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Nice article! Have Foster and McCarthy atm, will switch to Heaton soon.

  8. Dr Dream
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Another less obvious reason to go 8.5 is in the mini leagues. With so few unforced transfers of keepers in a season a replication of your rivals 8.5 combo (if it applies) nullifies that position at minimal cost.

    1. Dr Dream
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      May not help OR of course.

  9. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    A one-sided argument is a lack of discussion.

    What did the combinations greater than 8.5 Mill achieve? Can money be better spent elsewhere than in our goalkeepers?

    You have tried to simplify a complex problem and in the end achieved nothing of note in isolation. Useful statistics, but nothing can be gained from these alone.

    1. John t penguin
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      First line if this is reply fail
      😆

      1. John t penguin
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Oops
        Reply fail fail

        1. Ginkapo FPL
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          I think you've confused everyone

          1. John t penguin
            • 9 Years
            9 years, 6 months ago

            Including myself

          2. Xhaka Kahn't
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            9 years, 6 months ago

            yep

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers. I liked that article.

        A max score of 54pts after 10 games for Speroni/Fabianski.

        37 is only 69% of this.

        So I fail to see a strong case for 8.5 keepers.

        1. Heels_Over_Head
          • 10 Years
          9 years, 6 months ago

          How likely were you to pick Speroni/Fabianski at the start of the season.

          Fantasy is about giving yourself the best statistical chance of the most points, NOT about getting the maximum points as that is statistically nearly impossible.

          No one was talking up a Speronia/Fabianski pairing at the start of the season in my recollection.

    2. tm245
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I agree, just don't see how this is analysis. What did a 9.0m combo do, for example?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        See Skokym's post one above.

        Its the staggering endorsement from Jonty that disturbs me most. He should know better.

    3. SC not pearls before swine
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Agreed that this article doesn't really go into a lot of depth as to the usefulness of the 8.5 keeper strategy.

      My endorsement of the 8.5 million keeper strategy comes down to my belief that keeper points are not predictable, especially from the start of the season to January. The reason you see Speroni in the top 3 goalkeeper rotations is because he had 15 points in one week. If Arfield buries that penalty week 4, you're looking at a 12 point dropoff in those top 3 rotations. I'm happy to go cheap as possible and hope I get lucky with save/penalty points, because worst case scenario is I'm forfeiting about 20-30 points from the optimal keeper rotation, which I probably wouldn't have picked correctly anyway...

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        Its a good argument. Its also quite difficult to analyse as that is essentially the "human" factor.

  10. abreu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Really good article this one, cheers.

    I have opted for this combo from the start the last two seasons, as I noticed the save points og and a few surprise away CS makes it worth it, point per million wise.

    As I went with an 8.5 combo, got lucky with wisdom and hutton starting their games, and a maximum cheap 5th midfielder, and a bit of attention on the money market, I feel I know have an advantage in my mini league in fitting in the big hitters in demand.

  11. BuK II
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Convinced me to go Mannone > Heaton this week. (Have Gilks as my 4.0).

  12. Blue Lion
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Great article bud.
    I think you have convinced me to stick onto Heaton.

  13. SEASIDER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Great article.

    There is also the argument of starting the reserve 4.0. keeper ahead of the 4.5.

    Most weeks the 4.5 would be automatically subbed in. However, if he gets sent off then you avoid the -ve points for the red card and get the points from the 4.0 when he comes on to replace him.

    1. Barry Woj
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Wow this is potentially genius!

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah, people talked about that pre-season during the Krelliott bandwagon (that they would start Elliott every week for this reason). Quite a rare occurrence, but why not?

    3. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      😯 Genius!

    4. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      The 4.5 starter who gets sent off might still score better than the 4.0 who comes on in many cases...

      For example,

      4.5 has CS going and gets sent off after 61 minutes
      4.0 comes on and keeps CS alive

      Meaning that 4.5 gets 2+4-3 points for a total of 3, whilst the 4.0 gets only 1.

      Of course, without the CS it means 4.0 might outscore the 4.5, but my point is that it isn't as clear-cut and genius as it sounds.

      1. SEASIDER
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        I agree it's far from foolproof and there are many scenarios which can play out.

        However, red cards for keepers often coincide with a penalty being awarded, in which case a CS is unlikely anyway. We have however seen the substitute keeper come on and save the subsequent penalty. Rare, but it does happen.

        Another would be the 4.5 could go of injured after 75 mins with a CS, then the 4.0 comes on, concedes a penalty and gets sent off. Then they concede 3 goals with an outfield player in goal. Nightmare for the 4.0 but the 4.5 walks off with a clean sheet.

  14. Heels_Over_Head
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    If anyone has a screen shot of GK %s owned from week one, I'm happy to do more analysis, but I couldn't figure out how to back out that information.

    The GKs I remember having bandwagons on FFS preseason were:
    DDG/ 4.0
    Begovic paired with someone (Speroni? Green?)
    Begovic/ 4.0
    Mannone, of course
    Speroni/Green
    Krul/Elliott
    Krul/Mannon
    Krul/Foster

    On the surface of it, I don't think any of these are really doing that great.

    Moreover, the complaint that you *could* get more out of the GK position with the right rotation is what I'm arguing against even thinking about. Sure, you *could* but you *could* also get it wrong as most pre-season bandwagons did. And then what? Then you've spent more money than needed for the same or less points from the GK position and left yourself with less money to spend on the other positions where the extra money can make more of a difference.

    How many people with more expensive goalkeeper than an 8.5 total have found themselves .1, .2, .3., .4 or .5 short of being able to transfer in Aguero, Costa or Sanchez this season among others? Having the extra funds for one of those premium guys is probably more valuable than spending .5 or 1.0 more on GKs to squeeze out an extra 2 points per week (maximum) from the GK position *if* you get it right.

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      This I would love to see. How your 8.5 combos compare to the popular choices would be great to see. Along with the 8.5 combos which have not done so well. A lovely graph perhaps?

      1. Heels_Over_Head
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 6 months ago

        The only 8.5 really "not working" is Schmeichel / Hamer of Leiceister who are on 26 and honestly, if one was going to pick a 8.5 combo from a promoted side it would have made the most sense to go with Burnley who were the best defensively last season.

        DDG/4.0 34

        Begovic/4.0 28

        Krul/Mannone on home/away: 19 for Krul at home (14 of which are in 2 of the last 3); 15 for Mannone at home; total is 34

        what were the other popular pairings with Begovic, Mannone and Speroni... I'm on 3 hours sleep and could use a reminder

        notably, I don't recall Lloris being popular pre-season

  15. Get up ya bum
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    I prefer my 8.0 combo. Save 0.5 to spend elsewhere and hope not to get unlucky with an injury

    1. TheInsideMan
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      What combo is that?

  16. Alan Hansen's Emu
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Love the article, I'm an 8.5er. However jealous of Forester.

    A question for priorities for the weekend...

    -Get rid of Sterling?

    -Swap out injured PVA/Hutton?

  17. Tiggsy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Good article. I think there's definitely merit with the 8.5 keeper combo (especially pre-January). My personal taste is to accept the rotation headache and pick two 4.5s. Then again, with a Foster/Krul combination I've scored 37 points which is the same as Foster/Myhill. I've only predicted the superior performing keeper incorrectly twice costing me 5 points.

    I guess when it comes down to it, if you pick the right 8.5 combo then it's a winner. If you miss, you can end up with next to no points and only an extra .5 in the bank over a 9M rotation.

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      great comment, cheers

  18. rickardinho
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Good article.

    I've had Begovic and Krul rotating from the start.

    Individually their totals are:
    Krul: 31
    Begovic: 26

    I've totalled 30 points by rotating them, so clearly I would have been better off playing Krul all the time with Elliott as backup. I lost Begovic's CS at City, and Krul's CS against Liverpool, so if I had matched perfectly my maximum would have been 43, but that's hard to do.

    These numbers are a strong case for going cheaper by downgrading Begovic, but I feel like he's been quite unlucky in many games and could still get some CS's soon despite tough fixtures. Not sure I can find a FT to use on GK's either, especially with other priorities and only 9-10 games until January.

    1. rickardinho
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      I also think GK situations can change very quickly, like Heaton from GW1-6 who was a favourite and now isn't, and Krul was unwanted after GW5-6 but has improved his fortunes to become a good choice again. I like the idea of having two dependable keepers in case a team goes off the rails like Newcastle did early on for example, so I can rely on the other one. After all, I did make my GK pick with a 9.5m budget to use until January and am happy to stick with it.

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      good comment, thanks for posting that

      sorry i saw it late

  19. thetinkerman
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Nice article and a great point.

    It's worth noting that DDG until GW7 then Forster from then has got me 45 points at a slight extra cost. I may switch Forster for Heaton (have Gilks) in a couple of weeks though if I need to free funds since I have Bertrand as well.

    1. Kazza_
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 6 months ago

      is heaton worth it

      will burnley be tight again

      im they need a win so will be more attacking so less chance CS

  20. SEASIDER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    One downside of this strategy is that it costs 2 transfers if you decide to change your goalkeeper.

  21. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 6 months ago

    Definitely. I like this strategy and I am going for it whole season