Liverpool reviewed

I have a confession to make. I still think of Liverpool as a big club, one of the top group in English football. The trouble is, in many ways they aren’t any more. Liverpool have not won the Premier League in the 23 years since it was founded. Their finishing positions in the last six seasons were 7th, 6th, 8th, 7th, 2nd, 6th. They haven’t won a European trophy since the memorable Champions League win in Istanbul 10 years ago and have slumped to 42nd place in the UEFA club coefficients. In the last 10 seasons they have won just two domestic cups and that’s it.

It is hard for those, like me, who grew up in the ’70s and ’80s to adjust to the fact that the Liverpool of legend is not the Liverpool of today. Perhaps especially so for many Liverpool fans. In some ways that may be part of Liverpool’s problem. Expectations are unrealistically high and it only takes one excellent season with Suarez to send those expectations through the roof. Talented young players like Sterling are told that they should feel privileged to play for such a wonderful club but Sterling wasn’t even born when Liverpool last won the top English league. What is all the ’70s and ’80s history supposed to mean to him, a kid that was born in Jamaica in 1994 and grew up in London?

Some will think these musings are extraneous to an article like this and some Liverpool fans may even find them offensive although they aren’t intended to be. But actually I think they are relevant. It seems to me that Liverpool FC’s history has become a dead weight around its neck and that until a new Shankly can break them free of it they are facing an uphill struggle. Overly high expectations can crush you as much as low expectations can. And personally I don’t believe Brendan Rodgers is the kind of figure that can give Liverpool the break out from the past that is needed.

Having said all that, we now know that Rodgers will still be in charge next season, after meeting with the club’s owners last week.  But as a coach rather than manager and with a transfer committee system continuing in force.

Europa Effect

Liverpool will be the first Europa League (EL) team reviewed in these articles so let’s get the Europa effect out of the way first.

Over the last 10 years, EL (or equivalent) teams that qualified through league position have finished on average 3.2 places lower in the Premier League than in the season in which they qualified. [Source: BBC]  This applies to Spurs, Liverpool and Southampton next season. Mauricio Pocchettino of Spurs says “the Europa League is a very tough competition because it affects your domestic league…having had a Europa League season I can confirm that it is very difficult to manage with the Premier League and both cups”.

This drop of 3.2 places is big. It is equivalent to a loss of 8-10 points over the season.

Regular Champions League teams can build squads with enough depth to cope. But the EL doesn’t offer anywhere near the same financial boost and doesn’t really support a deeper squad. Maybe that’s one reason for the difference. The Thursday-Sunday routine coupled with more long journeys to far-flung destinations appears to be another. But whatever the reason, the EL syndrome means that Liverpool assets will need to be considered with an additional pinch of salt in the coming season.

Second guessing specific transfers in and out for Liverpool will be a hopeless exercise at this stage. But we can nevertheless have an idea where in the squad they may be and take account of those possibilities. I will try to do this in the sections below.

DEFENCE

Liverpool’s defence was a mixed bag in the 2014/15 season with 14 Premier League clean sheets is a fair return, though seven of those came in a mid-season run of nine games. But Liverpool’s 48 goals conceded is high for a top six team, 50% more than Chelsea and more than clubs like Stoke and West Ham.

Goalkeeper Simon Mignolet was the stand out performer, his 149 FPL points (including 23 save points) compare well with other premium GKs. There is a good case for marking him out as the Liverpool defender of choice although Liverpool Echo suggests that goalkeeping  is one of the positions Liverpool is looking to improve on.

Other than that, the Liverpool defence may not be so very different next season in terms of personnel. They are apparently looking at a RB to replace Johnson (with Nathaniel Clyne among those in the transfer rumour mix) and of course  Andrew Wisdom, who spent last season on loan at West Brom, and Jon Flanagan, who was injured for much of 2014/15,  should also be available again.

Of the current outfield defenders, Martin Skrtel looks the most valuable from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) perspective, especially if he can get anywhere near his 2013/14 tally of seven goals. However, there is also the possibility that Emre Can could be re-classified as a defender and if so he could be an excellent option, especially as he’d likely be cheaper than Skrtel. But most FPL managers won’t be rushing to pay premium prices for Liverpool defenders who also have EL to contend with.

MIDFIELD

The Liverpool Echo has been linking the club with a number of midfielders including Mateo Kovacic. Possibly this would be to play alongside Henderson, who will be Liverpool’s captain now Gerrard has left.

We now know that James Milner has agreed to join from Manchester City on a free transfer, subject to a medical. If, as expected, that goes through as planned he could be one of the best options, especially if he can retain a kind price tag of 7m or below. An uplift of his 5.5m price in 2014/15 would seem highly likely considering his reasonable return of five goals and eight assists over the season and better chance of starting matches at Liverpool. It is also worth remembering that Milner has significant FPL pedigree, scoring seven times and  notching up 12 assists on his way to finishing the 2009/10 season on 184 points.

There are a number of other  options in the Liverpool midfield, of which many seem of small interest for FPL purposes. Can (unless classified as a defender), Joe Allen, Lucas Leiva, Lazar Markovic and probably Jordan Ibe as well seem unlikely to be productive enough or have secure enough gametime to consider unless their price points are unexpectedly low. So that leaves Raheem Sterling, Adam Lallana, Philippe Coutinho and Jordan Henderson to also look at.

Sterling led this group in 2014/15 on attacking stats (per 90 minutes) in almost every area apart from conversion of shots into goals and was Liverpool’s second highest FPL points scorer with 158 points, just behind Henderson.  This is only 18% lower than Silva’s total, and the perception is that Silva had a stellar season.  In addition, he will likely come in priced around 1.5m lower than Silva.  He is at an age where improvement could be expected and surely has to be a short list contender if he settles to staying at the club. But that’s a big if.

Lallana had an injury hit season but his impressive 178 FPL points for Southampton in 2013/14 shows what he can do when given a clear run, although penalty duties significantly boosted his returns that season.  His stats were a little behind Sterling on creativity and goal threat in 2014/15 but he could easily come in at a price point around 8.0, low enough to make him a very feasible option if fit and established in the first  XI. He’s one that might benefit if Sterling leaves.

Coutinho is a serious option. He has good creativity stats and was possibly the Liverpool midfielder that suffered the most from their strikers’ poor conversion rates – with an in-form striker he could/should probably have had more assists than he did. He is also what community member Ludo has called a “shot hog” – Coutinho attempted far and away more shots per 90 than any other Liverpool midfielder, though a lot of them from outside the box. He has a fair proportion of free-kicks. A lot of FPL managers will need a midfielder or two at around the 8.0 mark and Coutinho could be one of the better choices at that level.

That leaves Henderson who is in some ways the hardest to assess. He has penalties, which is always an advantage, but his creativity stats lag quite far behind Sterling and Coutinho and he takes fewer shots per 90 than all the other ‘main’ Liverpool midfielders by quite a way. In addition, as Liverpool’s highest FPL points scorer his price will doubtless increase from this season’s bargain starting price of 6.0 and could even go as high as 8.0. At that price I’d personally rather have Coutinho (or Lallana if fit and established as 1st choice).

FORWARDS

What a mess. Daniel Sturridge injured repetitively and believing that he has a genetic pre-disposition to injury. Mario Balotelli looking a shadow of his confident self. Divick Origi was voted into Ligue 1’s ‘worst team of the season’. Rickie Lambert failing to impress.  Borini failing again to show in a Liverpool shirt the abilities he has demonstrated for other teams.

It’s not surprising that the Liverpool Echo seems certain that the club will sign a new striker with Danny Ings, Jackson Martinez and Christian Benteke amongst some of the names linked. Of those, Martinez would probably be a great FPL option in a Liverpool shirt, he is quick, deadly, mobile and proven, just what Liverpool need. But he’s also 28 and doesn’t fit Liverpool owners FSG’s model of buying players that will have resale value. In any case, as it stands right now there would seem to be no Liverpool strikers you could hang your hat on.

NEXT SEASON

Liverpool assets are going to be a tricky call, especially given the Europa League effect. Mignolet and Can (if re-classified) could be options in defence. Flanagan might also prove to be. The strikers seem to be uninspiring pending any new arrival although a fully fit Sturridge priced around 10.0 would gain some interest.  But it will probably be to the Liverpool midfield that most FPL managers will most look for options. And as it stands right now, Coutinho looks as if he might be the best of them while the situation with Sterling is still so unsettled. However, if Milner’s transfer goes through as planned and his price tag is kind he could emerge as the pick of the bunch.