Arsenal Reviewed

Arsenal finished third in the Premier League this season and thereby completed a decade long track record of finishing third or fourth.  In maintaining their customary charge into the Champions League placings they scored  71 goals and conceded 36 against, a statistical repeat of their 2012/13 season.  This season also saw them retain the FA Cup as well as reach the last 16 of the Champions League, where they exited the competition, as they have done for the last five seasons. Same old, same old, right?

A 2014/15 Overview

Well, Arsenal fans are pretty evenly divided about that, as anyone that has watched ArsenalFanTV and its viral Claude & Ty disputes will know.  There always seems to be high potential for the Gunners in the summer, but then the same pattern of being the bridesmaid but never the bride in Europe and the Premier League continues.  So let’s have a look in a bit more depth at the current Arsenal squad.

First, the good signs…

• Arsene Wenger has bought top players for big money in the last two summer windows – Mesut Ozil in 2013 and Alexis Sanchez in 2014.  That’s a relatively new trend that Arsenal fans had been crying out for.  Both have done well as well, Sanchez especially so.  Maybe there will be another big signing this summer?
• The Arsenal manager has also, maybe for the first time, been willing to adapt tactics against big opponents rather than stubbornly insisting on the one way of playing.  This worked well in the 2-0 win at the Etihad against City and in the pragmatic 0-0 against Chelsea and 1-1 at Old Trafford but not so well in the CL 1-3 home defeat against Monaco.
• Arsenal also have some good young players coming through – Hector Bellerin and Francis Coquelin have had breakout seasons and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jack Wilshere and others are still at an age where they should be improving.

However, whilst Wenger has been willing to spend big money on attacking midfielders he has seemed reluctant to address other positions. Arsenal badly needed a top quality centreback, but instead he bought Gabriel Paulista, who has failed to impress so far. They badly needed a defensively minded midfielder, and although he brought Coquelin back from loan  is he enough?  And they badly needed a top quality striker  but instead he bought Danny Welbeck, apparently under sufferance having said he’d have preferred to loan him.

There seems to be no doubt in most pundits’ minds that Arsenal are not far away from a serious Premier League challenge.  But a lot depends on what happens this summer.  They have been linked with a number of top defensively astute midfielders – Artuto Vidal and Morgan Schneiderlin among them – and that would perhaps be a good start. Theo Walcott’s potential switch to striker may take away the lack of options up top and reminds us of what Wenger did with winger turned striker Thierry Henry.  The centre back area still looks a weak area and further investment is needed there. But whatever happens, Arsenal are a very good team and one of the most important for FPL managers, especially in terms of their attacking talent.

THE DEFENCE

This season’s 36 goals conceded and 13 clean sheets is a par return for a top four team and just about justifies premium Fantasy Premier League (FPL) prices for Arsenal defenders. The good news here is that there was an improvement after goalkeeper David Ospina came into the side and helped accrue eight clean sheets in the last 18 games.  Ospina will probably be priced higher next season – maybe 5.5m – but could well justify that kind of valuation if he keeps his place.

The big-hitter defenders – Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker – suffered by comparison with their Chelsea counterparts who scored around 50% more FPL points at only slightly higher starting prices.  Koscielny, however, missed quite a few games through injury and is something of a bonus point magnet. Given an injury free run he could be a very realistic option at a probable 6.0.

The fullbacks are also interesting – Bellerin and Nacho Monreal appeared to have nailed first choice status during the season; neither seems likely to be priced above 5.5 and 5.0 might even be possible.  They could be interesting options at that price level although their first team places could be threatened by Mathieu Debuchy and Keiran Gibbs waiting in the wings.

Having Arsenal defenders in a FPL squad is therefore a somewhat awkward call.  A good defensively minded midfielder joining during the summer might aid a defence, which improved anyway once Ospina came in.  The fullbacks could offer good value but it’s hard to know if their gametime is secure.  Koscielny is a very important player for Arsenal but has never produced a really outstanding FPL season. Maybe 2015/16 will be the one?

THE MIDFIELDERS

The Arsenal midfield has probably been analysed on this site more than any other team’s midfield over the last season and in a way I’m not sure what I can add to it.  So I’ll take another tack and offer some opinions, controversial as they may possibly be.

For a start, I think there are a number of Arsenal midfielders that can be discounted for FPL purposes right now – Coquelin, Oxlade-Champberlin, Tomas Rosicky, Wilshere.  None of these five can count on being Gametime secure if Arsenal sign a centre midfielder/defensive midfielder as expected. Wilshere might have a chance of nailing a regular first team spot, but  he has yet to show any kind of consistent FPL point-scoring potential and is injured far too often.

Theo Walcott

Walcott needs dealing with on his own really.  It seems unlikely that he will be re-classified as a striker because he has played there so little.  But Wenger is talking as if he may see him in that position next season and his stats for shots in the box, accuracy and goals were already outstanding when played wide. If he plays as a striker (which seems quite likely),  if he supplants Giroud as first choice (which is less certain) and if he comes in categorised as a midfielder at around 9.0 (unlikely to be higher) then he’d be as near essential as I can imagine. But that’s three big “ifs”.  Whether we will know all the answers before the season begins remains to be seen.

Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla and Aaron Ramsey

Viewing the season as a whole, Ozil led the others by quite a way on key passes and chances created per 90 minutes, but not on assists.  Probably he was unlucky in this regard because his FPL returns didn’t quite match how well he was considered to be playing.  The other three were much of a muchness for creativity.

On shots in the box and total shots, Sanchez led the pack by some way with Ramsey and Cazorla fairly level and Ozil trailing behind.  No surprise there either.  However Sanchez’ numbers were influenced by a long period (October to mid-January) when he was often in a more central role and produced stellar FPL returns.  After the return of Giroud, Ozil and Ramsey from injury, Sanchez mainly played wide left and his stats (and FPL returns) reduced.

In addition to this it has to be considered that Cazorla has penalties and shares freekicks and corners with Ozil and Sanchez in the main.

So which is the one to have, given that Sanchez will probably be priced around 11.5 and the others around 9.0?  Well, to be honest I haven’t a clue.  But what I do have a clue about is that I don’t expect to have any of them in my FPL team if all are fit.  I am not convinced that Sanchez will be good value, or captaincy material, when played wide left, though I know others think differently.  And I think the attempt to pick one of the others is comparable to playing a lottery, although if I had to buy a ticket it would probably be Ozil.

So, unless there are injuries or changes in tactics which clearly favour one of these four, the only Arsenal midfielder I am likely to consider for GW1 is Walcott.  And that only if he looks like nailing the striker spot on a 1st choice basis.

THE STRIKERS

Walcott has already been dealt with.  He could be re-classified as a striker but that seems unlikely as he only started a handful of games in that position in recent years.  Welbeck disappointed from a FPL perspective and doesn’t seem to have the finishing sharpness that would make him a realistic option, in addition to which he is as likely to be played in midfield as in a striker role. That leaves Olivier Giroud.

Giroud is one who divides opinions.  His 120 FPL points was not a bad return for 8.5m considering he missed around a third of the season.  Basically he was scoring at a similar rate to when he managed 187 points in a full season of play in 2013/14.  He seems to score his goals in bunches and can be frustrating when he’s not running hot.  But it’s hard to see him getting a starting value above 9.0 (maybe 8.5 as he was last time).  At that price he could offer value if starting regularly.  Which brings us back to Walcott, who while a risk remains Arsenal’s most exciting prospect for Fantasy managers.