Aston Villa and Leicester City Reviewed

The last two articles in this series will cover four teams that left it late in the season to secure Premier League (PL) survival. In this penultimate article, we’ll take a look at the remaining pair from the Midlands – Leicester City and Aston Villa.

LEICESTER CITY

Overview

Bottom of the table in early April, Leicester produced an amazing run of seven wins in their last nine games to secure survival on an eventual 41 points. Previously they had won just four games in 29 attempts so the turn-around was startling. Why did this happen? Well, one feature was that Leicester had a run of ‘easier’ fixtures . Of the last nine games, six were at home and only one opponent was a top-seven team (the only game they lost). But they also changed their pattern of play to become more offensive, from the 5-4-1 they had often used earlier in the season to an attacking 3-4-3.

This approach resulted in 17 goals in those nine games compared to 29 goals in the previous 29. In other words, their goals-per-game ratio almost doubled. But at the same time they kept five clean sheets in their last nine games, having previously only managed five all season. So their defending seemed to improve too.

Some elements of the change in form can be related to players. Marc Albrighton, a bit-part player for most of the season, came into the team, and the midfielder played every one of the last nine games, turning in some high-class performances. Forward Jamie Vardy was also brought into the starting XI having been used mainly as a sub previously and delivered four goals and four assists, good enough form for an England call-up. Goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel returned from a long injury lay-off to produce form that has seen him linked with a move to a bigger club. Centre-back Robert Huth (who Leicester are reportedly trying to sign permanently) added defensive robustness and know-how. Forward Leonardo Ulloa re-discovered his scoring boots after a long, barren run. And veteran midfielder Esteban Cambiasso was highly influential in terms of class and experience in the centre of the park.

Predicting how Leicester will fare in 2015/16 is very difficult. The good news is that their late run will have given confidence to a group of players unused to playing at the top level; they now know they are good enough to win games in the PL. The negative is that a number of them – Schmeichel, Cambiasso, Vardy, Jeffrey Schlupp and Riyad Mahrez – have been linked with moves and it is uncertain how many of those players Leicester will be able to keep. Moreover, there will certainly be additions – Austrian defender Christian Fuchs having already signed from Schalke.

So it could be quite a different squad that Nigel Pearson starts the new season with whilst Leicester try to cope with second-season syndrome, which has seen five clubs in the last 10 years relegated in their second PL season after promotion.

The Players

The key questions regarding Leicester players will probably revolve around price. Will Fantasy Football games base their valuations on the whole season or on the last quarter of it? If the former, we could expect plenty of defensive options at the 4.5 level in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, probably including Schmeichel. Only captain Wes Morgan, wing-back Schlupp and new arrival Fuchs would look at risk of a 5.0 price tag. But if the latter, 5.0 could be the norm for Leicester’s first team defenders, at which level they would look less attractive. Of the more likely 4.5 options, Huth seems like a good choice if he signs for the club as he’d appear to be a nailed on starter and has good stats for attacking threat from set pieces. Wing-back Albrighton could also be a great pick if re-categorised as a defender, although that is unlikely.

In midfield it is hard to see any players likely to break the 5.0 threshold and at that level such players as Cambiasso and especially Mahrez will have support. But Leicester could also be a fruitful place to find starting midfielders priced at 4.5 – Albrighton would look likely to be one and if he continues next season the way he finished the last, he could be an ideal ‘fifth midfielder’ option.

In attack, Vardy and Ulloa would certainly look to be due price rises, perhaps to around 6.0 or so. There is also record signing Andrej Kramaric – a one-time Chelsea target – to consider. He was a prolific goalscorer in Croatia but didn’t fire at Leicester after his January move. Perhaps next season will be when we see how good he is. In the meantime there would seem to be better striker options than Leicester’s for FPL purposes in the predicted price range, though Jamie Vardy would look like the best of them for those that believe Leicester will continue where they left off.

ASTON VILLA

Overview

Aston Villa’s recovery followed the arrival of new manager Tim Sherwood. Commended for his turn-around of the form of the likes of Emmanuel Adebayor during his spell at Spurs, Sherwood worked the same magic with forward Christian Benteke who scored 11 of his 13 PL goals in Villa’s last 11 games. Sherwood’s ability to get the best from attacking players in particular also saw improved form from Tom Cleverley (now at Everton) and midfielder Fabian Delph.

Sherwood has a reputation as an attacking coach and certainly the defensive side of Villa’s game saw no improvement after his arrival, with three clean sheets and 23 goals conceded in 13 PL games. So the question for 2015/16 will probably be whether they can score enough goals to keep clear of trouble, much of which may hinge on whether they are able to retain Benteke, who has been linked with Liverpool, among others. In any case, for Fantasy managers it will probably be in the midfield and up front that the search for options will mainly be focused.

The Players

Looking to the Villa defence for Fantasy prospects is awkward. Villa kept 10 clean sheets during the season but most of them were achieved under Paul Lambert’s more cautious approach. Shay Given supplanted Brad Guzan in goal towards the end of season and at this stage it is not clear which of them will be Sherwood’s first choice next term.

The right-back role could go to Alan Hutton, Leandro Bacuna (classed in FPL as a midfielder) or new arrival Micah Richards. Centre-back options include Ron Vlaar (who has also been linked with a move away), Jores Okore and Ciaran Clark. Left-back could be Aly Cisshoko or Kieran Richardson (also classified as a midfielder). In other words, the back four is not settled and Fantasy managers may well prefer a wait-and-see approach here.

In the midfield, the main options right now would look to be Delph, Charles N’Zogbia, Jack Grealish and new addition Scott Sinclair. Of these, Grealish had the best creative stats by quite a distance and looks like a young player on the up after starting Villa’s last eight games of the season. Unlikely to be priced above 4.5 unless FPL and other Fantasy games react to hype more than proven performance, he could be a very useful fifth midfielder option.

Sinclair is another worth considering – he had the best stats for shots in the box amongst the Villa midfielders and last time he played regularly for a full season he racked up eight goals and five assists on his way to 151 FPL points (2011/12 at Swansea). If he establishes himself as a regular under Sherwood he could be a very lively option at a probable 5.0 or so.

In attack, Benteke is the main attraction. It would seem unlikely that he’ll be priced much above this season’s 8.0 (maybe 8.5) based on the season as a whole and he’d certainly have supporters at that level given his late-season form. Gabby Agbonlahor does not appear to be a nailed-on starter and it is six years since he managed double figures for goals in a PL season, a fact that is likely to be reflected in a price not above 5.0. It seems quite likely that Villa will bring in additional firepower, even if Benteke stays, with Jamie Vardy amongst those being linked.