Community Submissions

Fantasy Premier League Transfer Market Guide

There have been a lot of questions over the last few days about player price changes in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) so I have written this basic guide to try to answer some of them. For many this will be familiar information, but hopefully this will be useful for newcomers and, maybe, a reminder for others. This is intentionally designed to be a basic guide. Some seasoned members of the Fantasy Football Scout community will undoubtedly be aware that some situations are more complicated than portrayed here, but I have tried to keep things simple for newcomers.

What we know for sure

All we know for sure are two details (because they are written in the rules):

1) Players will change in price during the season depending on their popularity in the transfer market.

2) You will sell a player for the price listed as the current selling price unless the player is worth more than you paid for them, in which case you will pay a 50 per cent fee on any profit, rounded up to the nearest 0.1. The following table demonstrates how this works (PP = Price you paid for a player; CP = Current market price for player; and SP = Sale price of player):

PP | CP | SP

7.0 | 6.8 | 6.8

7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9

7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0

7.0 | 7.1 | 7.0

7.0 | 7.2 | 7.1

7.0 | 7.3 | 7.1

7.0 | 7.4 | 7.2

The CP, SP and PP for each player in your team is available by clicking on the Data View tab above your team in the transfer page in FPL.

What we might know

Beyond this information, we will not know more for sure about the transfer market until the first price changes occur. However, we suspect the following might occur as they have been consistent features of recent seasons:

Price changes are  based on net transfers in (NTI). Put simply, if Player X had 6,000 transfers in and 5,000 transfers out, his NTI is 1,000. If he had 5,000 transfers in and 6,000 transfers out his NTI is -1,000. This figure keeps going up or down as a player receives more transfers in or out. FPL would then check if the player had hit his NTI threshold for a price rise or a price fall. If they have, they rise or fall 0.1, the NTI counter is then reset to zero and the count begins again as the player is transferred in and out by more Fantasy managers. If a player hasn’t hit the threshold, nothing happens; the NTI counter carries on from whatever NTI level it had reached.

The price change usually occurred in the middle of the night UK time last season, and it appears the same is happening this season with changes tending to happen shortly before 3am UK time. Aside from checking on the FPL transfers page and sorting by price rises and falls the changes are also posted on Fantasy Football Scout by a member of the community. These can be easily found by arranging the comments of an overnight article by ‘Sticky Comments First’.

It is widely thought that the threshold for a price rise is based on the number of active people playing FPL, while the threshold for a price fall is based on the number of people who own a player. The distinction is important as it affects the number of transfers required for a player to move in price. Every player has the same rise threshold, but each player would have an individual price drop threshold. Let’s use an example where Player A had 10,000 owners and Player B had 1,000,000 owners. If the price rise threshold was, say, two per cent of all active players and there were 2,000,000 active players, both players would require 40,000 net transfers in before their price could rise. But if the drop threshold was ten per cent of each player’s ownership, Player A would require an NTI of -1,000 to drop in price, while Player B would require an NTI of -100,000 to drop in price. After a price change, the threshold counters would reset.

Price changes have historically been limited to a maximum rise or fall of 0.3 in a Gameweek. FFS member The_Colonel has noticed there is no mention of this limit in the FPL rules this year. I haven’t seen an explanation why, but one reason could be an expectation that it is no longer required. Time we tell here. In 2013-14, price rises of 0.3 in one Gameweek were quite possible for players who everyone was rushing to bring in as the same threshold applied to each price change, but in 2014-15 it is widely believed that FPL changed its rules around the price change thresholds for the second rise in a Gameweek so that was higher than that of the first rise (once a new Gameweek began the higher threshold limit returned to normal). The rate for a third rise within one Gameweek was even higher still, so a triple price change in one Gameweek became rare last season. There may be no need to state a limit anymore… or maybe FPL is planning to change the formula again. Until we have some dramatic Gameweek transfer activity we can only guess.

There were several other factors that altered NTI and price thresholds last year and these included a player being flagged (having a yellow, orange or red “i” (for injury/suspensions) box beside their name on the transfer screen). The price drop threshold for a player with a yellow flag was higher than for an unflagged player. It was higher still for a red flagged player.

Players could be locked, or protected from price movement last year. The NTI counter for locked players also reset to zero. This usually happened in one of two scenarios:

1) When a new player was added to the game, their price was locked for eight days or until the start of a new Gameweek (where the gap between Gameweeks was longer than eight days). Much like pre-season, this allowed the player to build up an ownership without their price changing.

2) After the status of a flagged player changed to a different status, say from yellow to red, or red to available (blue).

Transfers made by players on a Wildcard were also believed to affect NTI figures, with one theory suggesting they didn’t count at all towards NTI. If this was correct, a player who had 10,000 transfers in, including 5,000 on a wildcard, plus 1,000 transfers out, would only have had an NTI of 4,000. Wildcard transfers had the potential to skew how quickly a player rose or fell in price in a Gameweek.

Predicting price changes

FPL participants can get a rough idea of which players might be heading for a rise or fall in a particular Gameweek by selecting transfers in (round) and transfers out (round) from the “Sorted by” drop-down menu on the Transfers page of FPL. However, remember that a player’s NTI counter only resets to zero if they change in price or are locked. If Player B in our earlier example had an NTI of -80,000 between Gameweeks 1 and 2, then an NTI of 60,000 the following week, he would neither rise nor fall because his NTI thresholds were -100,000 for a fall and 40,000 for a rise and his counter at the start of Gameweek 3 is at -20,000 (-80,000 + 60,000).

Several price change prediction websites operate by monitoring the number of player transfers in and out, adjusting for the various factors that can affect NTI, and matching those figures against estimated price rise and fall thresholds to predict when a player is likely to increase or decrease in price. These sites display this as a percentage, with a player being predicted to rise when they reach or exceed 100 per cent, or fall when they reach or exceed -100 per cent.

At the start of the season these calculations are very rough and based on experience of how the price changes worked in previous years. Therefore they can be faulty, particularly if, as last year, FPL changes the price rise and fall formula.

Once the first price changes happen, the price change prediction websites will start to refine their threshold estimates and NTI calculations. As the season progresses they usually become more accurate.

But remember, until we have more price changes this season none of the price change sites will be very precise. All we know for sure is that there will be price changes and that you can check the Data View on the FPL Transfers page to see how much you will receive for selling a player.

39 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jonty
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    2 years, 7 days ago

    Fantastic post, really highlighting the basics of playing the market from what we know and can only guess.

    1. Diva
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 years, 7 days ago

      Thanks for posting this Jonty and thanks for updating it since submission with the first transfer time. As a minor note of caution, we have only had one price change so far so we don't know for absolutely sure that they will be at 7am each day.

      1. Diva
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 years, 6 days ago

        The second set of price changes occurred shortly before 3am, about the same time as last season. Please can we adjust the article Jonty?

  2. Francescoli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 years, 7 days ago

    great article Diva

  3. Doosra - ☭Garganega - The…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 years, 7 days ago

    Top, top work. Jonty, this gets my vote, irrespective. Thanks, Diva. 🙂

    1. Jonty
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      2 years, 7 days ago

      I wish someone had posted this in my first season. Such a great round up of the price changes - invaluable knowledge for the beginner, great recap for us old stagers.

  4. No Luck
      2 years, 7 days ago

      I could be wrong but I don't remember the FPL website ever mentioning the 3 rises or falls per week rule. I remember a few seasons back when Dzeko scored 4 against Tottenham and everyone was waiting to see if he would rise by £0.4m. When he didn't, that's when we knew for sure.

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 years, 7 days ago

        I was going to post the same, don't think it was ever mentioned in the rules.

      2. Mílanista
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 years, 7 days ago

        Yep, it was never mentioned in the rules though the .3 limit has been proven on numerous occasions. In any case, last season it became very diffficult for a player to rise .3 in a GW due to the threshold increasing for each .1 rise in a GW.

      3. Diva
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 years, 7 days ago

        Thanks, I confess I don't have a copy of the rules from each year on file. May be it is one of those laws of FPL that we have become so used to it feels like it was written in the rules, even if it technically wasn't?

    • JamieLfc
        2 years, 7 days ago

        I have a question.. If I play my wildcard during IB at the start and get in all the players which are going to rise then once the IB is nearly over I'll change to the players I acctually want and make some profit?

        1. andyinasia
            2 years, 7 days ago

            Yes. We used to play the system like that until last year when it didn't work any more. The prices climbed much more slowly and I suspect will again this year.

            1. JamieLfc
                2 years, 7 days ago

                So a good idea for small profit?

                1. Diva
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  2 years, 7 days ago

                  It was in previous years, but it didn't work too well last year.

          • andyinasia
              2 years, 7 days ago

              "These can be easily found by arranging the comments of an overnight article by ‘Sticky Comments First’."

              That I never knew!!!

            • FrankieTheGent
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              2 years, 7 days ago

              Thank you so much for this.

              Was trying to understand why Courtois hadn't dropped and see it's his red flag.

              Anybody know a good prediction site?

              1. bailj018
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                2 years, 7 days ago

                FFFix, FISO and FPL Statistics are the ones I use. FFFix had the least accuracy at the end of last season but as the article says no one knows just yet until more rises/falls occur 🙂

            • LJJM Duckies
                2 years, 7 days ago

                Magnificent work, well written! *round of applause*

                One minor correction I can see though: (and this is by no means meant to be rude nor nit-picking):

                2) You will sell a player for the price listed as the current selling price unless the player is worth more than you paid for them, in which case you will pay a 50 per cent fee on any profit, rounded UP to the nearest 0.1. The following table demonstrates how this works (PP = Price you paid for a player; CP = Current market price for player; and SP = Sale price of player)

                Should this not be "...you will pay a 50 percent fee on any profit, rounded DOWN to the nearest 0.1"?

                If it was rounded up, then prices would look like this:
                PP | CP | SP

                7.0 | 6.8 | 6.8

                7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9

                7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0

                7.0 | 7.1 | 7.1 (not 7.0 as stated)

                7.0 | 7.2 | 7.1

                7.0 | 7.3 | 7.2 (not 7.1 as stated)

                7.0 | 7.4 | 7.2

                Like I said, this was an awesome post and I am not trying to derail it, just to clear up a point for others.

                Thanks for your efforts!

                1. Diva
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  2 years, 7 days ago

                  Thanks for the comment. It is the sell on fee which is rounded up, not the profit. The difference between 7.0 and 7.3 is 3. The 50% sell on fee is 0.15 but as this has to be to the closest 0.1, it is rounded up to 0.2. Take the rounded up sell on fee from your sale price of 7.3 and you are left with 7.1. Aplogies if that wasn't clear in the article.

                  1. Diva
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    2 years, 7 days ago

                    *Apologies.

                    1. LJJM Duckies
                        2 years, 7 days ago

                        Ah, that makes sense, thanks!

                        Great article!

                2. tomandrews123
                    2 years, 7 days ago

                    Brilliant post, thanks!

                  • The Orienteer - find me in …
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    2 years, 7 days ago

                    Very useful - thanks.

                  • Baldærs 😐 🔫
                      2 years, 7 days ago

                      Top article Diva, really useful stuff for everyone out there. I was amazed when the rises and falls went through at half 7 this morning.

                      1. Diva
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        2 years, 7 days ago

                        Yes, I think it caught everyone on the hop!

                    • Van Klinkert Delarosa
                        2 years, 7 days ago

                        Excellent work.

                        Never knew about the threshold of price rise depend on total number of managers in the game and threshold of price fall depend on ownership. Thought both depend on same variable.

                      • RedLightning - Top 10k Any …
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • Has Moderation Rights
                        2 years, 7 days ago

                        "2) You will sell a player for the price listed as the current selling price unless the player is worth more than you paid for them, in which case you will pay a 50 per cent fee on any profit, rounded up to the nearest 0.1."

                        Shouldn't this be "2) You will sell a player for the price listed as the current selling price (SP). This will be the same as the current market price (CP) unless the player is worth more than you paid for them(PP), in which case you will pay a 50 per cent fee on any profit, rounded up to the nearest 0.1."?

                        1. Diva
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          2 years, 7 days ago

                          Maybe it should have said "current market price" in the first sentence of 2. I added the definitions for PP, CP and SP later, which maybe what injected the confusion you experienced. I did work hard to keep terms clear, but it is useful to hear where this can be improved further - thanks!

                      • tambourineman
                          2 years, 7 days ago

                          "The price drop threshold for a player with a yellow flag was higher than for an unflagged player." Does it follow then that a player with a yellow flag needs fewer NTIs to receive a price increase, e.g. Yaya Toure currently, 52k managers have signed him despite the yellow flag, surely this is more significant than a fully fit Kompany getting 57k say.

                          1. Diva
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            2 years, 7 days ago

                            The experience of previous years suggests it does not, but it's not often people are buying a flagged player in large numbers so it may be hard to make a definitive call on that.

                            I believe the increased drop threshold is primarily to prevent an injured or suspended player from falling too far below what might be considered a fair price for them when they become available again.

                            1. rioilinsky
                                2 years, 5 days ago

                                That info = GOLD , well done Diva , especially for a manager like me , my second season overall 🙂

                                1. Diva
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  2 years, 5 days ago

                                  Thanks. Good luck this year!

                          2. tambourineman
                              2 years, 4 days ago

                              Mignolet's price rose last night, he has 57.6k NTIs and current ownership of 9.9%, Payet has 59.7k NTIs and smaller ownership of 5.8% yet has not risen yet. Are you aware that GKs have a smaller threshold for rising?

                              1. Diva
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                2 years, 2 days ago

                                They don't, it's the same. What matters is effective NTI. The pure in and out numbers on the FPL site don't tell you the whole story. As I said in the article, there are several factors that affect NTI and the best price comparison sites try to adjust for those.

                                1. tambourineman
                                    2 years, 2 days ago

                                    Well neither have been flagged so that's not a factor, it must be true then that wildcard transfers don't count and Payet was far more popular choice on those. This is backed up by Aguero's failure to rise last night when (at 11:30pm) FPLstats had him at 140 and FFF at 104 & rising by 8% per hour, most people got him on wildcards rather than a 'normal' transfer and so once these were excluded he didn't reach the threshold.

                              2. Jøssy ⭐
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                1 year, 12 months ago

                                Hi Deva,

                                Thought I'd come back to your post, since you seem well informed on this subject (I thought I was!!!).

                                I've heard a few people now refer to wildcard transfers "unwinding" after the deadline. I'm really not sure what people's assumption is on this.

                                I know (we believe) that if 100,000 people transfer out Mane (for example) on a WC they will not affect the NTI metric used to assess his price fluctuation. So, my understanding is if 120,000 in total transferred him out this week (100k via WC), and zero transfers in (to keep this simple), then he will have an NTI of 20,000.

                                Surely, this isn't going to change post deadline, and those additional 100k of transfers start to impact?

                                What are people's thoughts on this term that's come up a few times?

                                1. Diva
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  1 year, 11 months ago

                                  Hi Jossy, sorry, just spotted this. I haven't seen evidence of wildcard transfers "unwinding" after the deadline.

                              3. Jøssy ⭐
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                1 year, 11 months ago

                                No worries Diva. No, nor have. I think it's complete rubbish, but heard a few people use the phrase so I thought I get your second opinion.

                                Cheers mate!

                              4. Prajwal Siwakoti
                                  1 year, 9 months ago

                                  let see the current status of mahrez
                                  according to u,
                                  pp-6.2(when i bought)
                                  cp -6.6
                                  sp-6.4

                                  but i m getting only s.p-6.2.
                                  please explain this .