What The Bookies Say – Gameweek 3

After some good results from the bookies in predicting Gameweek 2’s results I can now  turn my attention towards GW3, let’s see what the bookies are saying this week:

From feedback last week, I’m going to give the odds as fractions (e.g. 5/1 means 1 pound staked returns 5 pounds plus your initial stake of 1 pound totalling 6 pounds).

GAMEWEEK 3 GAMES

Manchester United (1/3) vs Newcastle United (8/1)

The early kick-off this weekend in the Premier League, Manchester United are big home favourites with Newcastle given next to no hope. The markets in this game indicate goals, and plenty of them. United have only had three shots on target in two weeks, however, Newcastle have conceded 16.5 shots a game, with 19 last week. Bookies verdict – 2-0. FPL Verdict – play your United assets, even captain them.

Crystal Palace (5/6) v Aston Villa (18/5)

Another odds-on home favourite, even with 40% or less population in both games, they have managed 11 shots a game so counter-attacking is definitely Pardews’ tactic of choice. Villa’s Amavi has averaged 4.5 dribbles a game and is averaging 41 passes per game. He is getting involved in his team’s play. Bookies verdict: 2-1 Palace. FPL verdict: Play Amavi and any Palace assets you may have, their attacking assets with be too much for Villa to handle

Leicester (13/8) vs Tottenham (8/5)

The bookies have this game as a  high scoring affair with both teams showing defensive frailties. The bookies are edging this one for the home team. Leicester have scored six goals so far and Spurs are conceding chances aplenty.  The bookies are building this one up to be a cracker. Bookies verdict: 2-2. FPL verdict: don’t play your defensive assets but do play your attacking assests with Kane/Mahrez even captaincy options.

Norwich (7/5) vs Stoke (2/1)

Norwich have had two 3-1 games so far and surprisingly have the second highest possession per game at 58.8% and fourth in shots per game at 17.5.  Stoke are averaging 11 shots per game  and are creating lots of chances. Bookies verdict: 2-1 away win. FPL verdict: play your Norwich 5th mid if you have him, likewise if you have Diouf. Avoid both sets of defences.

Sunderland (11/4) vs Swansea (21/20)

The Key Stats – Sunderland are giving up 18.5 shots a game whilst only taking 8.5 themselves. Sunderland’s goalkeeper Costel Pantillimon has only seven  saves against seven  conceded. The key man for the Black Cats will be Jermain Defoe. He has seven penalty box touches and three shots on goal. Nevertheless Swansea are the firm favourites  with 18 shots per game and eight of these on target. Key man in JonJo Shelvey. His  15 crosses and nine chances in two games as well as 125 completed passes make for impressive reading.  Bookies verdict – 3-1 Swansea. FPL verdict  – ditch Pantillimon and play your Swansea options who are good captaincy options.

West Ham (7/5) vs Bournemouth (21/10)

The markets suggest West Ham are favourites but not by much. West Ham have only had 18 shots this season whilst conceding 32,  with 22 of those inside the box. With the Hammers goalkeeper Adrian suspended, Bournemouth could be set to prosper. Bournemouth have had 12 shots a game at 51.7% possession. Ritchie has had 15 crosses with seven shots on goal suggesting those who have remained patient could be well rewarded. Bookies verdict – 1-1 draw. FPL verdict – caution on your West Ham players, especially defenders. Play but do not captain West Ham’s Dimitri Payet and make sure owners of Matt Ritchie play the Bournemouth man.

West Brom (5/1) vs Chelsea (4/6)

West Bromh have 7.5 shots a game and  under 35% possession., while Boaz Myhill has made 10 saves. Chelsea’s statistics are not much better, having mustered a measily three shots on target and conceding eight big chances. The key captaincy contender here is Eden Hazard , but with just four chances created so far owners best look elsewhere for the armband.  Bookies verdict – 2-0 chelsea. FPL verdict – caution with Chelsea options, definitely not captaincy material.

Everton (¾ vs Manchester City (4/6)

Everton are in excellent attacking form, with 10 shots per game vs 14 shots conceded and 56.4% possession. Man City, though with 57% possession and 38, yes 38 shots through two games are in even finer fettle. The Sky Blues 15.8% conversion rate of shots to goals is unreal with their star man Sergio Aguero averaging a chance every 12.6 minutes. Alexsander Kolarov is another standout performer, with 108 passes of which 40 have been in the final third. Bookies verdict – 2-1 City FPL Verdict, strong captaincy option with Aguero

Watford (17/10) vs Southampton (17/10)

Watford have fired off 27 shots on goal and conceded 16 shots. Striker Troy Deeney has 15 penalty box touches and seven shots on goal, suggesting the points will be coming. Southampton, meanwhile, have Graziano Pelle up front. He has 24 penalty box touches but just two shots on target so far. With a Europa hangover, the bookies are predicting a 2-2 draw. FPL verdict – play all attacking assets in this one.

Arsenal (8/11) vs Liverpool (4/1)

Arsenal  have 60% possession so far and have had 42 shots on goal, With only two goals the end product is all that’s missing and that’s where Alexis Sanchez could come into play. Liverpool meanwhile have a low shot average per game and with Jordan Henderson likely to be out with injury they could lack solidity in midfield.  Bookies verdict – 3-1, FPL verdict, Sanchez could reward you with a huge points haul.