Last week I asked myself the question ‘Can the bookies be used as a tool for FPL?’ Well, Gameweek 2 has finished, and here are the results.
Gameweek 2 Games
Liverpool vs Bournemouth
Liverpool were the clear favourites for this game and although the game turned out to be a low-scoring one, Benteke repaid those who put the armband on him. Just like the bookies predicted. Verdict: Backing the proven goalscorer proved accurate.
Aston Villa vs Manchester United
The bookies had this down as a tight, low scoring affair with a 1-0 United victory and they had this absolutely spot on. Playing but not captaining your United options was the right choice and those with Villa’s Micah Richards were rightly advised to play only if they had to. Verdict – Spot on
Southampton vs Everton
The bookies had this down as a 1-1 sort of match, a tight affair but not a lot of people saw this result coming. Having said that, because of the predicted tightness of the match (beforehand) the bookies suggested not to captain Graziano Pelle or Sadio Mane. Verdict – wrong result but right advice for Fantasy managers.
Sunderland vs Norwich
A tight affair was predicted but Sunderland just cannot defend right now, something that the bookies didn’t factor in. Verdict – wrong result.
Watford vs West Brom
You almost felt it was the wrong time for Watford to be playing against West Brom, after the Baggies’ 3-0 defeat to Manchester City. West Brom would surely tighten up and the betting reflected this with poor odds offered on this being a high scoring clash. Verdict – Spot on with a drab 0-0 game.
Tottenham vs Stoke
Tottenham were the favourites but the over/under market was split down the middle; this suggested a high-scoring affair and a punt with your captain could have worked in this match. With the ensuing 2-2 thriller, those backing Nacer Chadli were rewarded. Verdict – The bookies again, were spot on this one, although Harry Kane owners remain miffed.
Swansea vs Newcastle
Swansea were the rightful favourites and the bookies had the first goal as the most important. Once the Swans hit first, the result never looked in doubt. Newcastle’s Daryl Janmaat was sent off, which you could argue may skew things, but even with 11 v 11, it was very likely to be the same outcome as the bookies predicted. Verdict – Bookies were spot on again.
West Ham vs Leicester
Every market in this game was split down the middle; flip a coin was the suggested option. It was hard to predict, which meant Fantasy managers would have been advised to play their attacking assets from each team but perhaps avoid captaining them. Verdict – Bookies hedged their bets for this and with a narrow Leicester victory they were proved right to do so.
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Arsenal were the favourites with a 1-0 or 2-1 victory, coming in a tight affair. Verdict: The bookies had this game down to a tee. This type of clash with a heavyweight against a team known for conceding is a great example of how following bookies odds can reap dividends. Verdict – Another gold star for the bookies.
Manchester City vs Chelsea
City were favourites to win, with the overs/under market fairly split down the middle. Verdict – Bookies did well here, City won the game, convincingly in my opinion.
Conclusion
Let’s be realistic, the sample size is small, maybe it was a fluke, maybe it’s a sign of what’s to come this season, who knows. But consider this, of the results that the bookies got right: Liverpool game, Manchester United game, Swansea game, Arsenal game, City game and the Tottenham game, these are arguably the fixtures with the best captaincy options. Fantasy managers looking for a strong armband selection are advised to keep a close eye on the odds ahead of the weekend.
8 years, 8 months agoI must admit I did look at the odds when deciding on captaining Benteke. They are usually pretty good when it comes to backing reliable scorers.