What The Spread Bet Markets Are Saying

The different markets that sports spread-betting websites offer can give some alternative insights from what “traditional” bookies provide (such as standard outright result odds, first goalscorer odds etc.) Without going into the nuances of spread-betting and how it works, here is some information pulled from the latest spreads on current markets.

Gameweek 13’s Fixtures

Current results “prediction” for each match (based on each team’s number of team goals spread market mid-point). For example, if Watford v Man Utd was played, say, 100 times, the spread-betting website reckons that Watford would score 85 goals (i.e. a 0.85 average) and Man Utd 150 (i.e. a 1.5 average).

Watford 0.85 Man Utd 1.5

Chelsea 2.1 Norwich 0.85

Everton 1.9 Villa 0.85

Newcastle 1.45 Leicester 1.55

Southampton 1.8 Stoke 0.75

Swansea 1.65 Bournemouth 1

West Brom 0.85 Arsenal 2.05

Man C 1.85 Liverpool 0.95

Spurs 2.1 West Ham 0.95

Palace 1.9 Sunderland 0.85

Current % outright results “predictions” (based on the rounded mid-point of the Binary Result spread market)

Wat 19%, Draw 28%, Mnu 53%

Che 67%, Draw 20%, Nor 13%

Eve 63%, Draw 23%, Avl 14%

New 34%, Draw 27%, Lei 39%

Sou 63%, Draw 23%, Sto 14%

Swa 52%, Draw 26%, Bou 22%

Wba 13%, Draw 20%, Ars 67%

Mnc 60%, Draw 24%, Liv 16%

Tot 64%, Draw 22%, Whu 14%

Cpl 63%, Draw 23%, Cpl 14%

Spread-betting websites also offer a market for player goal minutes, which gives a great insight at the likelihood an individual player will score/explode in a fixture. These markets, however, are usually only opened a day or two before the fixture in question, so it is too early yet for the Gameweek 13 markets, but I will post these on the main discussion boards and in the comments section on this article nearer the time.

For the rest of the season

If you are looking at getting in a player long term and want to know which teams are predicted to do the best from now until the end of the campaign, the Team Season Points market is the one to look at, as it predicts the number of points each team will end the season on, and so you can work out (by deducting the number of points they have got to date) how many more points they are predicted to add to their current tally. Predicted points from now until the end of the season (based on the rounded current mid-point in the Team Season Points market, less the current season points accrued to date):

Arsenal 55

Man C 55

Man U 50

Chelsea 49

Liverpool 45

Spurs 41

Everton 39

Southampton 38

Palace 34

Swansea 32

Leicester 31

West Ham 30

Newcastle 28

Stoke 28

Watford 28

Villa 27

Norwich 27

Bournemouth 26

West Brom 25

Sunderland 22

West Brom’s predicted very poor performance for the rest of the season is the one that stands out here – maybe a team to avoid if the spread-betting website is correct.