Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 14 – The Weak

Having run through the teams with the strongest upcoming schedules yesterday, our focus this afternoon turns to the sides who look to have numerous difficult fixtures over the next six Gameweeks. Leicester face a tough task to keep their place at the summit, while Swansea, Norwich and Sunderland could struggle to claw their way out of the bottom seven.

LEICESTER

There’s no doubt Jamie Vardy (7.4) and Riyad Mahrez (6.7) have offered outstanding value to Fantasy managers this season, particularly to those who jumped on the pair during the first few weeks of the campaign. With matches against Man United, Liverpool and Man City in the next six – three teams who rank among the five sides who’ve allowed the fewest numbers of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks – there’s a chance we’ll see some regression in the duo’s output. The trips to Swansea and Everton are reasonable match-ups, while Chelsea have only conceded one goal in their last two matches, and could gradually be turning the corner after a wretched start to the season. It could be that keeping hold of both attackers continues to provide dividends, but the tough schedule looks to be saying otherwise.

The Foxes defence has shown signs of improvement of late, with two clean sheets in their last four matches, while only allowing 19 shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, the second lowest total in the top flight. Both Liverpool and Chelsea feature among the top four clubs for total goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks, though, while you’d think keeping out Man City and Everton would prove to be a bridge too far. The match-ups with Man United and Swansea aren’t favourable either, so continuing to avoid Leicester defensive assets looks the way to go for the time being.

NORWICH

With only two reasonable match-ups (wat, AVL) in the next six, the Canaries are another team who may struggle to provide us with appealing Fantasy options for the upcoming period. The goals have dried up for Alex Neil’s men in recent weeks, scoring just twice in four matches, and up against very strong defences in the shape of Arsenal and Man United, and solid outfits in Watford and Tottenham, it’s hard to see that record improving significantly. Aston Villa and, to a lesser extent ,Everton present reasonable match-ups, particularly as both are at Carrow Road, but with many other budget options for us to choose from, the likes of Wes Hoolahan (5.5) and Nathan Redmond (5.5) look set to be overlooked at this point.

Neil’s more conservative approach in recent weeks has meant his side have only conceded four goals in as many matches, but facing the two highest scoring teams over the last month, Tottenham and Everton, along with a potent Arsenal team, Norwich will struggle to maintain that decent record. The Canaries are also unlikely to keep out Man United at Old Trafford, leaving only the fixtures against Watford and Villa as possibilities for clean sheets. Having only managed one shut-out this season, even keeping those teams out may prove beyond them.

SUNDERLAND

While the 1-0 victory at Crystal Palace will have boosted confidence levels at the Stadium of Light, the next six fixtures look far from straightforward. In the short-term, home clashes against Stoke and Watford are reasonable, particularly from a defensive standpoint, if the disciplined performance seen at Selhurst Park can be repeated. Clean sheets in the other four matches (ars, che, mci, LIV) look extremely unlikely, so any investment in members of the Sunderland backline appears unlikely to pay off, particularly in the medium-term.

The outlook is arguably even gloomier from an attacking perspective, with Stoke having kept five shut-outs in their last six matches, while Watford have proven themselves to be a tough nut to crack so far this season. The Black Cats have fared surprisingly well against Man City in recent seasons, but with Big Sam emphasising the importance of clean sheets, it’s hard to see his charges managing to score many goals up against those top sides. As was the case when assessing Norwich’s attacking assets, our focus should really be elsewhere when trying to unearth a few bargains.

SWANSEA

Confidence levels are clearly low in south Wales, and trips to Anfield and the Etihad are hardly what Garry Monk’s side need right now. It’s hard to envisage much success for the Swans’ main attacking threat, Andre Ayew (7.1) in those fixtures, while the West Brom and Crystal Palace clashes could also prove less than fruitful in terms of attacking potential. As already touched upon, the Leicester rearguard has been much improved in recent weeks, although West Ham’s defensive record offers a crumb of comfort – they have allowed 41 shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, the most in the Premier League.

The Welsh outfit have only managed two clean sheets this season, and up against the two highest scoring teams this season, Leicester and Man City, along with the in-form Liverpool, it’s hard to see a third arriving over the next three Gameweeks. The next three fixtures (WHM, WBA, cpl) are pretty reasonable, but with Swansea defensive assets setting us back at least 4.9 in FPL, there are unlikely to be too many Fantasy managers who are desperate to find a spot in their five-man backlines for any of Garry Monk’s defenders.

BE WARY OF…

Southampton
The Saints suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Stoke in Gameweek 13, and having only scored four goals in as many matches, the prospects for their attacking assets don’t look great, given they face Man City, Tottenham and Arsenal over the next five Gameweeks. Their other three fixtures (AVL, cpl, whm) are reasonable, but bearing in mind that Graziano Pelle (8.4) and Sadio Mane (8.0) have both blanked in four of their last five matches, the pair could find themselves on the way out of many teams. Pelle’s one-match ban for this weekend has already seen over 270,000 FPL managers transfer him out.

Defensive returns in those match-ups against City, Tottenham and Arsenal are pretty unlikely, while West Ham have scored in all of their home matches this season, although their attacking threat looks diminished in the absence of Dimitri Payet. Although the Aston Villa and Crystal Palace clashes are reasonably strong, the Saints defence could struggle to provide great value over the next six Gameweeks.

Man City
Manuel Pellegrini’s side face two difficult away to trips in the next six, travelling to Arsenal and Leicester, matches in which it may be tough to record a clean sheet. Should Vincent Kompany fail to face Southampton on Saturday, a shut-out against the Saints could also prove difficult, leaving only the matches against Stoke, Swansea and Sunderland as possibilities for defensive returns. With rotation concerns to also consider, the prospects for City defenders over the coming period don’t appear particularly bright.

City have surprisingly only scored three goals in their last four matches, but only the match-ups at Stoke and Arsenal look potentially unfavourable in the next six. Home clashes against Swansea and Sunderland should prove profitable for those holding onto City attacking assets, while the fixtures against Southampton and Leicester are also pretty reasonable. There are a few questions marks on whether Sergio Aguero will live up to his 13.1 price tag though, while Kevin de Bruyne (10.7) has failed to score since Gameweek 8.

Bournemouth
The Cherries have surprisingly managed the fifth highest number of shots from inside the box (35) over the last four, but up against two really strong defensive units in Man United and Arsenal, and four other difficult opponents (EVE, che, wba, CPL), it’s hard to see any Bournemouth attacker making a significant impact over the next month or so. The kind price tag and out-of-position potential of Josh King (4.6) does make him a viable option as a cheap fifth midfielder, whilst Dan Gosling (4.4) is even cheaper – he has fired more shots inside the box than any midfielder since Eddie Howe moved to 4-1-4-1 in Gameweek 11.

Bournemouth have only managed one clean sheet this season, and it’s hard to foresee a second coming over the next six Gameweeks. United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton all have to be backed to net against the Cherries, while Palace are likely to score on the road, leaving only the trip to the Hawthorns in Gameweek 17. Even that match-up appears unlikely to yield a shut-out, given West Brom have scored seven goals in their last four home matches.