With the possibility of a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 25 out of the question, we can now turn our attention to the upcoming blanks in Gameweek 27 and, more importantly, Gameweek 30. I’m sure you can figure out how to prepare for the Gameweek 27 blanks, as just four teams, Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester City miss out.
But preparing for the Gameweek 30 blanks will be a lot more complicated.
In this article I will outline the permutations, probabilities and strategy associated with the Gameweek 30 blanks. It may seem like a long way off but trust me, one misspent transfer between now and then could directly lead to you having to take an extra four-point hit in order to have a full XI in Gameweek 30.
THE PERMUTATIONS AND PROBABILITIES
Fa Cup 5th Round Draw
(Premier League teams in bold)
Shrewsbury vs Man United
Chelsea vs Man City
Reading vs West Brom or Peterborough
Watford vs Leeds
Blackburn vs Liverpool or West Ham
Spurs vs Crystal Palace
Arsenal vs Hull
Bournemouth vs Everton
Gameweek 30 Fixtures and Blank Permutations
Arsenal vs West Brom – Blank if ARS beat HUL or if WBA beat PET and REA.
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace – Blank if MUN beat SHR or if CRY beat TOT.
West Ham vs Watford – Blank if WHU beat LIV and BLA or if WAT beat LEE.
Aston Villa vs Spurs – Blank if TOT beat CRY.
Liverpool vs Chelsea – Blank if LIV beat WHU and BLA or if CHE beat MCI.
Sunderland vs Everton – Blank if EVE beat BOU.
Norwich vs Man City – Blank if MCI beat CHE.
Bournemouth vs Swansea – Blank if BOU beat EVE.
Leicester vs Newcastle – Can’t be a blank.
Stoke vs Southampton – Can’t be a blank.
Blank Probabilities
Bet Victor are offering odds for teams to reach the FA Cup Quarter Finals, using those odds I have worked out the percentage chance of each Gameweek 30 fixture being a blank. I won’t bore you with the maths in this article, if you’d like to see the odds, click on the link to my spreadsheet at the bottom of the page.
Arsenal vs West Brom – 91.78%
Man Utd vs Crystal Palace – 91.69%
West Ham vs Watford – 83.93%
Aston Villa vs Spurs – 70.91%
Liverpool vs Chelsea – 68.75%
Sunderland vs Everton – 58.88%
Norwich vs Man City – 50%
Bournemouth vs Swansea – 41.12%
Leicester vs Newcastle – Can’t be a blank.
Stoke vs Southampton – Can’t be a blank.
ANALYSIS
Four teams definitely won’t have a blank in Gameweek 30:
Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke.
Either Swansea & Bournemouth or Everton & Sunderland will have blanks in Gameweek 30.
Four teams have at least a 90% chance of a blank in Gameweek 30 (according to Bet Victor):
West Brom, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Man United.
If West Ham beat Liverpool in their FA Cup replay on Tuesday 9th February:
Either Liverpool & Chelsea or Man City & Norwich will have blanks in Gameweek 30.
STRATEGY
To maximise your free transfers between now and Gameweek 30 so you can get as close to a full XI in Gameweek 30 as possible, without taking hits you should follow these rules (split into two sections: before and after the final game of FA Cup 5th Round weekend on February 21st)
Before February 21st:
- Spend the fewest possible FTs (either 0,1 or 2 depending on how many FTs you have right now).
- Only buy Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke players.
- Only sell West Brom, Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Man United players (if West Ham beat Liverpool in their FA Cup replay, you could sell a West Ham or Watford player too).
After February 21st:
- Only buy players who won’t have a blank in Gameweek 30.
- Only sell players who will have a blank in Gameweek 30 (or players who will miss Gameweek 30 due to injury).
MINIMUM ACTIVE GAMEWEEK 30 PLAYERS
If you’d like to know the minimum number of active players you can get in Gameweek 30 without hits, follow these steps (it might seem obscure, but it works):
- 5 + the number of FTs you have right now.
- Add your total number of Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and Stoke players.
- Add whichever number is smaller:
a) Your total number of Everton & Sunderland players.
or
b) Your total number of Swansea & Bournemouth players. - If Liverpool lose to West Ham in their FA Cup replay next Wednesday, add whichever number is smaller:
a) Your total number of Liverpool & Chelsea players.
or
b) Your total number of Man City & Norwich players. - Subtract 1 if you’re reading this after the Gameweek 25 deadline.
- Subtract 2 if you’re reading this after the Gameweek 26 deadline, etc.
LINKS TO BLANK/DGW TRACKER SPREADSHEET
Q & As
Q. When will the Double Gameweeks be?
A. Most, if not all of the blanks from Gamweek 30 will be rescheduled to Gameweek 34, which will be the biggest Double Gameweek of the season. There will be another set of blanks due to clashes with the FA Cup Semi Finals in Gameweek 35 and the subsequent Double Gameweek will be in Gameweek 37. There will probably be at least one more mini-Double Gameweek after Gameweek 30 but it’s harder to predict when that might be. Check the Schedule section of my spreadsheet for more detail.
Q. How many Double Gameweek players can you get in Gameweek 34 if you have a full XI in Gameweek 30?
A. At least eight without hits. Between Gameweek 30 and Gameweek 34 you should transfer in some players who have a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 34 and don’t have a blank in Gameweek 35.
Q. When should I use my Wildcard, Triple Captain and Bench Boost chips?
A. I think the best time to use the second Wildcard is in Gameweek 36, then Bench Boost with 15 Double Gameweek players in Gameweek 37. I’ll use my Triple Captain chip in one of the other Double Gameweeks.
8 years, 3 months agoFantastic research!
Current team:
Butland, Hennesy
Sagna, Beller, Simpson, Dawson, Alderw
Oz, Ali, Mahrz, Payet, Firmi
Kun, Kane, Iggy
1FT 3.1ITB
Thinking of:
Dawson -> Fonte/VVD (this week)
Firmino -> Arnie (next week)
Any thoughts lads?
Cheers!