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Bandwagons – When Is It Best To Climb Aboard?

This season like any other has seen a number of players jump to the fore and become seemingly essential. In the first couple of weeks the strong early form of  Manchester United’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Everton midfielder Ross Barkley has resulted in a double price rise already.  Here I will outline some of the dos and don’ts of joining such a bandwagon, paying close attention to fixtures, ownership, price as well as form. 

Fixtures

Form versus fixtures is an age old argument among the Fantasy Football Scout community. Generally, players in form attract alot of transfers, however, their upcoming fixtures provide a key insight on whether this form will continue. Take Barkley for example. His next six fixtures include trips to Sunderland and Bournemouth and home encounters with Middlesbrough and Stoke. The only perceived difficult game is a trip to the Etihad. Strong fixtures like this would be a strong case to transfer in such a player, just as much as his strong early season form.

Price

Prices fluctuate rapidly in the early stages of the season. Having a high team value will be crucial when it comes to wildcards later in the season. This year team value could be even more important with the golden duo of Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Ibrahimovic a main stay in the majority of teams. The pair currently set you back 24.8m of the 100m budget. With almost a quarter of your budget spent on 13 percent of your squad you will need to build up funds to afford other premium players like Eden Hazard, Alexis Sanchez, Dimitri Payet and Harry Kane, who all have the potential to offer strong returns this season. Jumping on these early bandwagons to avoid price falls in your current players and to avail of price rises could be a prudent investment.

Ownership

Personally, I don’t think overall ownership is crucial because by Christmas many managers lose interest. I am much more concerned about who the dedicated players and mini-league rivals are drafting in and out.  A player may be well owned overall but not in our retrospective mini leagues. Hence we won’t lose out in the league as much as we will in overall rank if this player scores well. This may allow us time to gather more information on the transfer target before investing.  It is important to remember, however, that if a player is well owned and scores it could be detrimental to your overall rank.

Points

The most important element of deciding to get any player is whether or not you think they will score well in the near future. If you don’t then avoid the bandwagon. If you do then its time to join the party. The statistics available in the FFScout Member’s area are a helpful insight if a player’s form is temporary or likely to continue.

I recall last season Anthony Martial became a strong bandwagon after scoring three goals early in his Manchester United career. But a quick look at his underlying statistics showed he had scored these from a mere four shots, which proved to be an unsustainable conversion rate.  Ibrahimovic currently has a 60 percent conversion rate. This is remarkable high, but there is an argument that it won’t remain this high over the course of the season, especially as he managed a 27.1 percent conversion rate last season for Paris Saint Germain. Overall I do believe the Manchester United striker will score well, especially now we know he is on penalty duty, but his underlying statistics offer his suitors an element of caution. He could of course replicate other statistical anomalies, like Yaya Toure, who in seasons past has managed to maintain a high scoring rate from a low number of shots.

19 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Sound advice. thanks for posting.

    1. Ronnies
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Hey Jonty,

      What transfer did u do !
      Did u get Barkley or Rondon ?!

      P.S - I did Firmino > Barkley

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Firmino to Barkley. Big mistake last season was ignoring him over autumn. Somehow, he get points and Everton's fixtures do look great.

    2. RVP fc
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers. Delighted it got posted 🙂

  2. mariusz.kaptur.1986@gmail.c…
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    What best attacking midfielder to 5,3 millions £?

  3. Fingerspitzengefühl
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Barkley or Lukaku for Everton cover?

    1. mariusz.kaptur.1986@gmail.c…
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Barkley is in the form

  4. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    The best time to join a bandwagon is immediately before it starts - then you get the player's early points as well as his later ones.

    But that's easier said than done! 😉

    1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Isn't that called starting a bandwagon? 🙂

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        Bandwagons can start in various ways. Some start with high ownership by the casuals, others with players being hyped up on sites such as FFS, and others following a big game-week score. I was thinking of the latter case, but getting the player immediately before that big game-week score, before the bandwagon has really started.

        Unfortunately, I'm not good enough to get that right very often.

  5. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Foolish to start Hojbjerg over Benteke tomm?

    1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Woah what happened? You brought him in early for some reason?

      1. Sz21
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 6 months ago

        I brought him in for 3-5 games.. not the 1st one.
        Part of a double swoop with Barkley in for Firmino and offloading Carroll too.

        It has worked very well TV wise anyway and zero regrets.
        Hojbjerg will play 90 mins prob and has a great fixture.
        He will get his chances too!

        Benteke will likely not start and I'm fine with that-
        Just wondering if 10- 40 mins of Benteke will be better than 90 mins Hojbjerg.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 6 months ago

          In the same boat...bought Benteke and now unlikely to start, compounded further by the fact now Zaha is not playing.

          Im starting Benteke but fir different reasons to you, (Have Foster and McAuley - so not starting Negredo), I think coming on for 30-45 and grabbing a goal isn't unrealistic.

  6. tm245
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Nice article. I liked the part about ownership because as you suggest, it is more complex than straight up TSB% on the FPL transfers page.

    I am not sure that the Ibrahimovic strike rate is as much a concern for unsustainability as you mention. He is pretty clearly the talisman for the team, so his class and career goal scoring record need to be taken into more account than the 60% goal scoring rate after two games. He won't score every game, but it stands to reason that if he is the beast, the team will continue to feed the beast and he will get tons of scoring opportunities. If he maintains Yaya rates of anomalous scoring given his centrality to the team, he might be an all time great FPLwise. Sometimes situations and tactics are a great way to analyze the validity of a bandwagon.

    1. Bunk Moreland
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Agree with what you say. He is one of the best player to ever play in the PL, the only question is his age. If he can avoid injuries, I think he will score around 30 goals this year.

    2. RVP fc
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers, i appreciate it. I agree Zlatan is a great option. Just that his conversion rate is not sustainable. But as the main man in the United attack he will certainly score well

  7. Fred54
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 6 months ago

    Zlatan reminds me of RvP from a few seasons ago, where he scored out of nothing alot of the time. I've jumped abroad, can easily downsize if needs be.

    1. Mull
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 6 months ago

      RVP did it all season long though. I'll have to wait a few more games before agreeing with that comparison.