This season like any other has seen a number of players jump to the fore and become seemingly essential. In the first couple of weeks the strong early form of Manchester United’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Everton midfielder Ross Barkley has resulted in a double price rise already. Here I will outline some of the dos and don’ts of joining such a bandwagon, paying close attention to fixtures, ownership, price as well as form.
Fixtures
Form versus fixtures is an age old argument among the Fantasy Football Scout community. Generally, players in form attract alot of transfers, however, their upcoming fixtures provide a key insight on whether this form will continue. Take Barkley for example. His next six fixtures include trips to Sunderland and Bournemouth and home encounters with Middlesbrough and Stoke. The only perceived difficult game is a trip to the Etihad. Strong fixtures like this would be a strong case to transfer in such a player, just as much as his strong early season form.
Price
Prices fluctuate rapidly in the early stages of the season. Having a high team value will be crucial when it comes to wildcards later in the season. This year team value could be even more important with the golden duo of Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Ibrahimovic a main stay in the majority of teams. The pair currently set you back 24.8m of the 100m budget. With almost a quarter of your budget spent on 13 percent of your squad you will need to build up funds to afford other premium players like Eden Hazard, Alexis Sanchez, Dimitri Payet and Harry Kane, who all have the potential to offer strong returns this season. Jumping on these early bandwagons to avoid price falls in your current players and to avail of price rises could be a prudent investment.
Ownership
Personally, I don’t think overall ownership is crucial because by Christmas many managers lose interest. I am much more concerned about who the dedicated players and mini-league rivals are drafting in and out. A player may be well owned overall but not in our retrospective mini leagues. Hence we won’t lose out in the league as much as we will in overall rank if this player scores well. This may allow us time to gather more information on the transfer target before investing. It is important to remember, however, that if a player is well owned and scores it could be detrimental to your overall rank.
Points
The most important element of deciding to get any player is whether or not you think they will score well in the near future. If you don’t then avoid the bandwagon. If you do then its time to join the party. The statistics available in the FFScout Member’s area are a helpful insight if a player’s form is temporary or likely to continue.
I recall last season Anthony Martial became a strong bandwagon after scoring three goals early in his Manchester United career. But a quick look at his underlying statistics showed he had scored these from a mere four shots, which proved to be an unsustainable conversion rate. Ibrahimovic currently has a 60 percent conversion rate. This is remarkable high, but there is an argument that it won’t remain this high over the course of the season, especially as he managed a 27.1 percent conversion rate last season for Paris Saint Germain. Overall I do believe the Manchester United striker will score well, especially now we know he is on penalty duty, but his underlying statistics offer his suitors an element of caution. He could of course replicate other statistical anomalies, like Yaya Toure, who in seasons past has managed to maintain a high scoring rate from a low number of shots.
7 years, 6 months ago
Sound advice. thanks for posting.