Last season Your Mum’s Athletic took a look at bookies odds to see if they could be an aid in helping choosing your captain for the upcoming GW. But what if he tried to factor in form and fixture into the equation? Here’s his results in his own words.
Refining the Odds
First of all I took six popular captaincy options for the upcoming Gameweek and ranked them from 1-6 according to their likelihood to score, according to the bookies.
I then took the same players and appled the same 1-6 ranking in terms of fixtures, measured by how many goals and big chances their opponents have conceded over the last four league games.
Finally, I applied the same rankings over the same period to assess form, based on points per game, goals and assists over the last four league games that they have played.
Bookies Odds
Rank Player Odds
1. Aguero 8/11
2. Costa 5/6
3. Sanchez 10/11
4. Benteke 11/8
5. Son 6/4
6. Firmino 7/4
Fixtures
Rank Player Fixture Goals Conceded Big Chances Conceded
1. Benteke (WHU) 12 10
2. Sanchez (swa) 8 10
3. Costa (LEI) 8 9
4. Firmino (MUN) 7 6
5. Son (wba) 5 6
6. Aguero (EVE) 3 2
Form
Rank Player PPG Goals Assists
1. Son 10.75 4 2
2. Firmino 8.5 3 1
3. Costa 7.75 4 1
4. Aguero 7.5 4 0
5. Sanchez 7 3 1
6. Benteke 5.25 3 0
Results
Rank Player Odds Fixture Form Total
1. Costa 2 3 3 8
2. Sanchez 3 2 5 10
3. Son 5 5 1 11
4. Aguero 1 6 4 11
5. Benteke 4 1 6 11
6. Firmino 6 4 2 12
Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Chelsea’s Diego Costa is the likeliest to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek.
Alexis Sanchez of Arsenal is close behind in second, while Spur’s Heung-Min Son, Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Christian Benteke all totaled the same amount on 11. I have placed Son higher up in the results as he tops the form list from the trio. It’s worth pointing out, using this method as a test last week, that Roberto Firmino was the runaway leader. If this proves popular, I will try and make this a weekly article.
7 years, 6 months agocosta cap for me