Scouting the Doubles – Gameweek 27

As anticipated, Manchester City’s FA Cup replay win over Huddersfield Town has cemented our first double Gameweek of the season.

With Pep Guardiola’s men set to visit Sunderland before hosting Stoke City in midweek, Fantasy Premier League interest is understandably on the rise, with Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane all subject to major bandwagons since Wednesday evening.

Despite their disastrous display in Sunday’s 4-0 thrashing at Spurs, the Potters can’t be written off as a source of points altogether, though, with a favourable head-to-head against travel-sick Middlesbrough at the bet365 preceding their midweek jaunt to the Etihad.

The Prospects

A trip to Sunderland immediately bolsters City’s Fantasy potential for the double, with Guardiola’s troops ranked joint-top alongside Arsenal for goals scored on the road, with 28 apiece.

City have been very consistent on their travels, failing to net in just three of 13 away matches, though two of those blanks have arrived in their last four on the road, against Liverpool and Everton.

They’ll be buoyed by the Black Cats’ defensive data, though – in front of their own fans, the Wearsiders boast the second worst record in the top flight for both shots conceded in the box (132) and goals against (24).

In terms of home matches, City have created more big chances (35) than any side, yet have failed to net more than two goals in their last nine in the league.

Nonetheless, back-to-back five-goal home hauls against Monaco and Huddersfield is clear evidence of their points potential.

While those numbers don’t bode too well for Stoke’s defensive prospects in that second Gameweek 27 fixture, City’s lack of resilience offers far more optimism – they have mustered just two clean sheets at home all season, conceding in all but one of their last nine at the Etihad.

Stoke’s first match looks their likeliest source of Fantasy returns. Their weekend visitors, Middlesbrough, have scored just one goal in six on the road and kept a single clean sheet in eight away outings.

In saying that, we shouldn’t be expecting a goal fest at the bet365 Stadium. Aitor Karanka’s side have conceded more than once in only three of their 13 road trips and boast the league’s fourth-best away defensive record, with 14 goals against.

Prior to investing, it’s vital to also factor in both sides’ blank Gameweek 28 – the more you commit to City and Stoke, the less you have available in the following week unless you’re willing to undergo further surgery to your squad.

Although Stoke have a far less punishing schedule and only have league duties to focus on, there’s no question than Man City look the likeliest source of Fantasy returns.

Yet there’s a fear that the upcoming fixture list may persuade Guardiola to rest and rotate to a certain degree, with Wednesday’s match one of six fixtures in the first 19 days of March.

March 1 – Huddersfield Town – FA Cup
March 5 – Sunderland – Gameweek 27
March 8 – Stoke City – Gameweek 27
March 11 – Middlesbrough – FA Cup
March 15 – Monaco – Champions League
March 19 – Liverpool – Gameweek 28

On the optimistic side, Pep could easily field a full-strength side in both Gameweek 27 fixtures before freshening up his options to face ‘Boro in the cup – that way, those players who start against Stoke on Wednesday would then have seven days before facing a return trip to Monaco in the Champions League.

The Likely Lads

On his day, there are few, if any, Fantasy options as explosive as Sergio Aguero. Yet there’s no doubt that his first season under Guardiola has been an underwhelming one – indeed, if it wasn’t for Gabriel Jesus’ foot injury, the chances are that the Argentine would be on bench-warming duties.

On the downside, one goal and a single assist over his last eight league appearances is hardly encouraging, while he’s surprisingly managed just four double-figure hauls over 19 appearances.

Kun clearly has a point to prove, though, and, having bagged two goals and assist against both Monaco and Huddersfield, he seems back to the form of old. If he can maintain that momentum, the Argentine looks the obvious armband choice – there’s even a strong case for wielding the triple captain chip for this one.

It’s worth noting that Aguero collected 22 points against Sunderland and Stoke over the first two Gameweeks of the season.

Admittedly, Guardiola could throw a curve ball by naming Kelechi Iheanacho in his first XI in one of the matches – he did so at home to Burnley in Gameweek 20 before hauling the youngster off at half-time. Yet that was the Nigerian’s only start in the last ten Gameweeks – without a single minute in City’s last four, he looks to have fallen further down the pecking order of late.

With a goal or assist in eight of the last ten Gameweeks, Raheem Sterling – who also bagged two assists against Huddersfield – is City’s most consistent player by some margin. Despite netting on just six occasions, he’s second only to Aguero for both shots inside the box and efforts on target over the season.

Priced at 7.9 in FPL, the winger has been City’s best value option in terms of points per million, though he has struggled for explosive returns – a ten-point tally against Bournemouth in Gameweek 25 was his first double-figure haul since Gameweek 5.

In terms of security of pitch time, though, no team-mate has started more league matches then Sterling’s 22.

City’s top scoring FPL asset on 122 points, Kevin De Bruyne also looks a secure starter for both matches – like Sterling, he has been named in City’s XI on 22 occasions.

Top for chances created and second to Aguero for total attempts on goal, the Belgian boasts strong underlying numbers – with 12 FPL assists to his name (one more than Sterling), De Bruyne’s 29.5% goal involvement is higher than any midfield team-mate.

Sitting on just 7% ownership, he looks a viable differential, but many may baulk at a price of 10.5 for a player who has blanked in nine of the last 13 outings.

After a slow start to life in the Premier League, Leroy Sane has emerged as a key part of Pep’s plans.

Named in the first XI in only four of the first 21 Gameweeks, the German has since played from start to finish in each of City’s last four league matches.

An opener against Huddersfield means that the German has four goals and three assists in seven starts across all competitions and, at a cost of 7.6 and boasting a 1% ownership, he’s emerged as a hugely enticing differential.

Banking on City’s defence seems more of a gamble but if you’re willing to do so, John Stones – at just 4.7 – seems a budget-friendly pick.

The summer signing from Everton has started the last three league matches, earning two clean sheets and three bonus points over those matches.

The pickings look far slimmer at Stoke, with Hughes’ men struggling for form at either end of the pitch,

A total of two clean sheets in the last ten Gameweeks suggests that their defenders may need to rely on attacking returns to flourish, which leaves Lee Grant as arguably the Potters’ most secure source of returns.

The keeper has earned at least one save point in 11 of his 21 appearances and, while Middlesbrough’s out-of-sorts attack may struggle to test him, we can expect him to be kept busy in the midweek jaunt to the Etihad. Grant’s average of 4.0 points per match is more than any of Stoke’s first-team regulars.

Cheeky Punt

In their prime, Yaya Toure and David Silva have been proven Fantasy royalty, yet recent form suggests that opting for either would carry a greater degree of risk.

Toure’s spot-kick duties just about keeps him ticking over – indeed, having netted two of his four goals via penalties, the Ivorian’s minutes per goal is quicker than any midfield team-mate. Setting you back 7.3, he may struggle to justify investment with Sterling and Sane in the same price bracket.

Silva is second only to De Bruyne for chances created at City this season and shares the majority of corner duties with the Belgian, yet has managed just five assists from 52 key passes.

Like Toure, he was rested for the Huddersfield match, yet with a single goal in seven, and a prohibitive price of 8.6, the playmaker’s form suggests he may be an unnecessary risk.

Priced at 4.9, Peter Crouch racked up four goals and two assists over a five-match period in Gameweek 19-23 before blanking in each of the subsequent three.

This has coincided with Hughes’ decision to replace the big target man before the hour-mark with Saido Berahino on two of those three occasions, suggesting that, while Crouch could prove a viable enabler up top, his minutes are now clearly under threat from the new boy.

Meanwhile, Erik Pieters’ prospects are boosted by the Middlesbrough match, with anything garnered from Wednesday arguably deemed as a bonus.

Priced at just 4.6, the Dutchman has delivered an assist, two clean sheets and five bonus points in his last four home appearances, totalling 23 points.