FPL Player List Analysis – Budget Forwards

After checking out the goalkeepers, budget defenders, mid-price defenders, premium defenders, budget midfielders, mid-price midfielders and
premium midfielders, we now assess the budget forwards in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Priced at 6.0 or below, investment in this area is often made with one eye on freeing up cash to spend on premium targets elsewhere.

But as witnessed by the displays of Spurs’ Harry Kane in 2014/15 and Jamie Vardy of Leicester City in 2015/16, a breakout performer can cement their place as a season-long value pick for our starting XIs.

However, on initial impressions, the number of strong options for our opening squads is very thin on the ground.

West Brom’s new signing Jay Rodriguez is arguably at the head of the queue in our quest for value up front.

Priced at just 6.0, he’s mainly been utilised in the support roles behind a lone forward in Tony Pulis’ 4-2-3-1, yet has already scored twice in pre-season.

The Baggies boast one of the finest opening schedules around and offer six favourable fixtures (BOU bur STK bha WHU WAT) in the first seven Gameweeks.

When injury-free, Rodriguez has also proved himself as a viable option in the past, netting 15 times for Southampton back in 2013/14.

For the same price, though, you could also opt for team-mates Matt Phillips in your five-man midfield who, when fit, is made all the more attractive by his share of set-pieces.

Similar to Rodriguez, Swansea City’s loan signing from Chelsea, Tammy Abraham (5.5), also sits around the 3.6% ownership mark.

The youngster netted 23 times for Bristol City last time out and has maintained that form by scoring three goals in pre-season, including a strike in Saturday’s 4-0 victory over Sampdoria.

With Fernando Llorente almost certainly ruled out of the opening couple of Gameweeks due to an arm injury, it appears that Abraham will cement a starting role from the off.

However, it remains to be seen whether Paul Clement will opt for a lone forward system or a midfield diamond with two up front, which could also bring Jordan Ayew (5.0) into contention. Ayew and Abraham started in tandem in a 4-4-2 against Sampdoria.

The Ghana international started all five of the final matches of 2016/17 in this formation and supplied returns in three of those fixtures.

Yet the future of playmaker Gylfi Sigurdsson will have a significant impact on how we assess the Welsh side. He played a part in 50% of their goals last term and his departure would be a major blow to the Swans’ creativity. Sigurdsson was again omitted against Sampdoria with his move to Goodison Park perhaps imminent.

Brighton’s Glenn Murray (6.0) registered 23 goals and five assists in the Championship last season.

He’s already scored twice over the summer and, crucially, also boasts spot-kick duties for the Seagulls. At 33 years of age, though, there’s a feeling that Murray will have his minutes managed by manager Chris Hughton.

The promoted outfit face Leicester City, Watford, West Brom, Bournemouth and Newcastle United in the first six Gameweeks, boosting Murray’s chances of making an impact from the off.

Yet with playmaker Pascal Gross at 5.5 and last season’s Championship Player of the Year, Anthony Knockaert at 6.0, Murray faces a tough task to force his way into our thinking.

Huddersfield new boy Steve Mounie (6.0) has been quick to make an impact since arriving from Montpellier and could be the standout budget forward among the promoted sides.

The target man – who netted 14 times in Ligue 1 last term – has scored four times over the summer friendlies and we expect him to claim the lone striker role in David Wagner’s 4-2-3-1 set-up.

He also offers some fine opening fixtures, with the Terriers facing just one of last season’s top eight in the opening eight Gameweeks.

Again, though, you have similarly priced midfield team-mates with arguably a greater upside. Tom Ince is also priced at 6.0 and has scored four times in pre-season, while set-piece taker Aaron Mooy sets to back 5.5.

Over at the bet365, Mark Hughes’ tactics are likely to determine our perspective of Stoke City’s host of budget frontmen.

The Potters’ boss mainly utilised a 4-2-3-1 set-up last season but, with January signing Saido Berahino (6.0) failing to score in any of his 17 appearances in 2016/17, Hughes has flirted with a 3-4-2-1 over the summer.

Forgotten man Joselu (5.5) has been the most recent beneficiary, bagging a brace in each of the last two friendlies, yet the Spaniard failed to play a single minute last season and looks anything but a secure pick. He is also party to intense speculation surrounding his future, with Newcastle United coveting his services.

The identically priced Mame Biram Diouf has grabbed three goals and a pair of assists but looks set to vie with Glen Johnson for the right wing-back berth if Hughes continues with three at the back.

At a cost of 5.0, Peter Crouch was one of only three players to be named in every Stoke squad last season. Yet a total of 13 starts in 2016/17 suggests that Hughes mainly sees the veteran – who turns 37 in January – as a “Plan B” off the bench.

Certainly, there are alternatives in midfield that will set you back roughly the same. Joe Allen (5.5) bagged six goals and three assists in a central support slot last season and is one to watch if Hughes reverts to 4-2-3-1 and hands him a reprisal of that role.

However, it was a 3-4-2-1 against Red Bull Leipzig today with Allen deployed deeper. That meant that Xherdan Shaqiri (6.0) and Bojan (5.5) were deployed behind Berahino as the lone striker. The latter hobbled off with a foot problem, while Shaqiri provided two assists.

For all the budget and mid-price options available at Stoke, it should be noted that a dire opening schedule has them ranked bottom in our season ticker for attacking potential over the first eight Gameweeks.

Elsewhere, Burnley frontman Sam Vokes (6.0) finished the previous season in fine form – indeed, five of his ten goals in 2016/17 arrived in his final five appearances.

The Welshman’s average of 3.3 points per match (ppm) is second only to West Ham’s Andy Carroll (3.8) in this price bracket but, although he featured on 37 occasions last season – more than any Clarets’ forward – only 21 of those outings arrived in the first XI.

Furthermore, with fellow frontman Andre Gray (6.5) outscoring him by four goals to two over the summer so far, there’s uncertainty over his role once again. The same applies to fellow Clarets budget striker Ashley Barnes (5.5). The pair were both on the bench – with Gray in the XI – for the Clarets’ abandoned friendly with Hannover 96 today.

Midfield pair Jon Walters and Robbie Brady are both priced at 5.5 and have scored twice over the pre-season, though with Chelsea, West Brom, Spurs and Liverpool in the first six, investment in the Burnley attack looks best avoided.

Meanwhile, the likes of Liverpool’s Dom Solanke (5.0) and Newcastle United’s Aleksandar Mitrovic (5.0) have netted two and three goals respectively over the summer but look likely to be utilised from the bench at best.

Mitrovic started just 11 times in the Championship last season, and a lack of mobility looks at odds with Rafa Benitez’ counter-attacking approach. Ultimately, the Serbian could dig into the pitch time of Dwight Gayle (6.5) and diminish his team-mate’s Fantasy potential.

Stefano Okaka has started all but two of Watford’s five friendlies up front due to Troy Deeney’s injury absence.

At 5.5, the Italian could prove a short-term option for those looking to Wildcard in the first international break, with clashes against Bournemouth and Brighton in the first three Gameweeks.

Okaka bettered Deeney for both minutes per shot (35.3 to 70) and goal (238.5 to 294.1) last season, but there still has to be question marks over his ability to cement a regular role at the latter’s expense if new manager Marco Silva keeps faith in a 4-2-3-1 set-up.

However, the Italian found himself benched in today’s friendly with Real Sociedad, as Jerome Sinclair – a player yet to be added to FPL – lead Marco Silva’s Hornets attack. Okaka was introduced at half-time.