The Burning Question – Should we consider a four-man defence?

Three at the back – it’s been the tried and trusted Fantasy formation since we were first given a choice in such matters.

Midfielders and forwards score more points, after all, so you’ve got to maximise their presence in your side.

But the rise of the wing-back last season is threatening to prompt a revolution. The poster boy for the movement, Marcos Alonso, romped to 177 points for Chelsea in 2016/17 – more than all but the top four Fantasy Premier League strikers (excluding the out-of-position Josh King).

And with more Premier League managers than ever flirting with the system, there’s a school of thought that increasing numbers of Fantasy defenders are going to score big this campaign.

We canvas the opinion of some leading Fantasy Premier League managers and Fantasy Football Scout staff to ask for their verdict on the second of this season’s Burning Questions: Do we stick to 3-4-3, or give in to the lure of the four-man defence?

Ben Crabtree (Reigning FPL Champion) Says…

There’s no question that 3-4-3 is the standard FPL formation and, given the array of forwards available, I want to continue playing three up front.

Whether it’s worth moving to four in defence is something I’ll look to adapt to when more information suggests that’s the route.

At the moment there are a lot of options in all the positions, so I’m still happy to maximise the number of attackers.

I generally find results to be unpredictable at the start of the season with newly promoted teams often enjoying a honeymoon period. This makes banking on clean sheets as a source of points a risky strategy.

Should certain teams come to the fore with regards to clean sheets, and at least four defenders look clearly underpriced, then I could be persuaded to make the switch to four at the back.

But it’s a crazy, and possibly drab, season if I’m going to five, though.

The other side to defenders that’s worth looking at is the attacking potential. I like my defenders to have some goal threat, but feel three defenders is still enough.

I still view defenders for clean sheets as being the priority and am not keen on a good Gameweek being dependent on my defenders scoring or assisting.

Uwais Ahmed (FPL Runner-Up 2016/17) Says…

Depends. Each to their own!

We saw with Marcos Alonso and Kyle Walker last season that the wing-backs provide great value in FPL, and it has reinvigorated the defender position as a glamorous position to pay attention to.

Therefore, given how many attacking wing-backs we have in the league coupled with consistently high-scoring centre-backs such as Gary Cahill, Gareth McAuley and Cesar Azpilicueta, there is merit in considering a four-man defence in FPL.

However, you would have to dig deeper into the statistical evidence to establish the best value formation.

The basic fact remains that you have £100m to spend and I feel the most significant factor when putting a team together is to select the right players period by period and regardless of the formation, and to be flexible in your approach.

Selecting high-value players in one position obviously means allowances have to be made elsewhere, so it is best to put together a balanced team capable of putting big points on the board.

Generally speaking, I have always preferred the 3-4-3 formation but given how many good high-priced attacking players there are, if I was going to change, it would be to a 3-5-2 to allow two big hitters up front.

Having said this, I don’t believe it works long-term to be principled and I try and maintain a squad of 15 that allows for flexibility of formations.

Again, it is more important to have the right set of players than to start with a formation and go from there.

Peter Kouwenberg (Current Hall of Fame #1) Says…

At the time of writing, I am so tempted to switch to the dark side of a four-man defence, purely because the value you can find by stripping down the attacking unit by two players is mouth-watering.

The potential benefits of stocking up on wing-backs have been constantly lauded on these pages over the past few weeks and have slowly eroded my stoicism to stick to 3-4-3 or 3-5-2.

That third striker position is the deal-breaker, in my mind.

You can obviously go all-out attack with three Rolls-Royce strikers if you don’t mind loading your defence and midfield with the Rangels and Carrolls of the world.

Trade in your Jesus or Morata for the ephemeral charms of Defoe, Benteke or Hernandez and you are looking at a solid, balanced 3-4-3 with points potential all over the pitch and maybe even a half-decent substitute knocking on your door every week asking if there is any chance he can have a run-out.

How tempting, though, to throw caution to the wind and dust the cobwebs off logbooks labelled Crouch, McBurnie or Mousset. You know these cantankerous old beasts may not even get into first gear, but what does that matter when it allows you the coveted Kan-Kaku strike force, two premium midfielders and enough cash left over to replicate Manchester City’s summer spending in defence?

Fantasy Football is all about flexibility and adaptability, and a change of formation could be just the bold move which puts you ahead of the game before Wildcard mania kicks in.

Whether I’m bold enough to make the move myself is something yet to be confirmed.

Simon March (FPL Champion 2014/15) Says…

I can definitely see the appeal of a back four.

The triumphant return of the wing-back position after about twenty years in the footballing wilderness has offered the promise of both attacking and defensive returns and a whole new dynamic to factor into our selection.

It’s hard to argue against including the likes of Kieran Trippier or Marcos Alonso. Sure, they’ve had big price hikes this season, but comparable to many midfielders and forwards, they look to offer better value.

Outside of the premium defenders, the trend of wing-backs may also enhance the value of some budget defenders, Lewis Dunk at Brighton being a potential example. This further strengthens the case for focusing on the backline.

For me though, I’m currently still looking at three at the back, with one or two premium options, and then exploiting the value I see among mid-priced midfielders to afford a strong front line.

Defence is, in my opinion, still the best place to conserve budget. The shift for me involves the type of defender I’m going for – it’s now pacy wing-backs over the good ol’ BAP-magnet-dominating centre-halves.

That said, I’m still a little wary.

The trend for wing-backs emerged out of the blue(s) last season and took everyone by surprise.

But football evolves quickly and, this season, teams are certain to adapt, either by teams switching to a wing-back formation themselves, finding ways to counter the threat or by exploiting the spaces that wing-backs can leave defensively.

The days of Alonso and company bombing forward with reckless abandon might not last as long as we hope.

Jonty says…

I’ve heard the arguments for opting for four at the back and they are pretty impressive.

Of those defenders priced at 7.0 or below, 10 achieved scores in excess of 130 FPL points last season. Of these, Chelsea’s Gary Cahill, Marcos Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta even managed to hit or exceed the 170-point mark.

By contrast, just five similarly-priced midfielders breached the 130-point barrier and none earned more than 149.

The argument in favour of fielding four at the back over 3-4-3 is even greater when considering cheaper strikers, as only Troy Deeney of Watford managed to hit 130 points last time out.

Four at the back makes sense, but I’ve still decided to ignore this compelling evidence and stick to my tried and tested 3-4-3 line up.

A key factor is that I want to minimize the crushing disappointment of waiting in vain for my defenders to keep their clean sheet points. Waiting for a goal to be scored by my player rather than an opponent is much more fun.

Another factor is that flexibility is key early on.

I’m happy to switch to a four at the back formation, but from the off I want more freedom to hop on midfield or striker bandwagons that emerge. Having a squad with two 4.5 midfielders or a non-playing 4.5 striker leaves me with little wiggle room.

Should a playing 4.5 striker emerge, then I’ll consider a switch to four at the back. But until then, I’m happy to wait for a Wilfried Zaha or Charlie Austin goal rather than for the likes of Alonso or Cahill to lose their clean sheet.

Paul Says…

The growing trend for wing-backs could increasingly influence our transfer plans this season – and maybe even force a reassessment of the default 3-4-3 FPL formation.

Chelsea and Spurs’ penchant for three-man defences was followed by Arsenal in the latter stages of 2016/17, while both Manchester clubs and Everton have flirted with the formation this summer.

Essentially, that’s six of last season’s top seven teams potentially playing full-backs further up the pitch.

There’s also the fact that three Chelsea defenders supplied 170+ points in FPL last time.

But let’s not forget that the Blues managed just one clean sheet in their first six fixtures, while Marcos Alonso didn’t start a league match until Gameweek 7.

So initially, at least, I’ll be keeping faith in a three-man backline and adjust accordingly to on-field events as the season unfolds.

Building initial value also plays a part in my thinking here.

Particularly in the early parts of the season, most major bandwagons are typically focused on midfielders and forwards – a clean sheet doesn’t quite turn heads or drive up prices in the same manner that a goal does. I want my money on attackers to begin with.

The opening fixtures for both Southampton and West Brom also favour the tried and trusted approach. Charlie Austin, Manolo Gabbiadini or Jay Rodriguez could be quick to offer value and build on their two-goal showings over the summer.

With two big-hitters alongside in a three-man frontline, I’d prefer to punt on one or two in-form mid-price attackers with favourable fixtures rather than roll the dice on my approach and squad tactics from the off.

Mark Says…

I love the concept of Fantasy managers adapting their own tactics to fit the changes in real-world formations.

Clearly, a three-man defence with wing-backs is being seen as the way forward for many managers and teams in the Premier League, though I’m watchful for a backlash as methods to counter that tactic improve.

In Fantasy terms, I’m not about to move to a back four for Gameweek 1, but I am setting my team up to react and possibly shift once we have more data and information.

However, I fully intend to embrace the trend of investing in big-hitting defenders with my initial squad: I may well opt for both Antonio Valencia and perhaps Marcos Alonso, for example.

For one, they have a very strong opening fixture. But more significantly, they represent an effective way of holding funds that can be easily freed up with a simple downgrade to a team-mate or even a 4.5 alternative.

By downgrading one or even both to lower-priced options, I may just have the cash to move for early attacking bandwagons.

Experience tells me that real value will crop up in midfield. It could be temporary, and in short bursts, so I want a set-up capable of acting quickly when it does.

So 3-4-3 remains for me, but with the funds allocated to allow an easy shift to a 3-5-2 or even a four-man defence should meaningful value crop up in that position.