Predicting Performance of the Promoted Sides

Promoted teams are generally cheap resources and sometimes viable options as either the 11^th choice player in our starting line up or a useable bench guy.

In order to return good Fantasy points the team either has to have a decent chance of playing well in defence (like Middlesbrough and Burnley last season) or have some attacking capabilities (like Bournemouth and Leicester two in the seasons after their promotion).

I decided to look back at the last five seasons of promoted teams to see what impact the Premier League had on their impressive Championship statistics.

Historical Data

Attacking Performance

What we can derive from the above data is that on average a team will experience a drop in goals scored by around 37. Another way to interpret the data would to look at the percentage that their goals scored reduces, which turns out to be 51% of their prior number.

Applying both of these conclusions to the 2016/17 Championship promoted teams we get the following results:

Now that we have an expectation as to how each team will perform this season, we can determine how this will translate in terms of their fantasy prospects.

Newcastle’s projected goals scored of 46 compares well with Swansea and West Brom from last season.

We know that there were some viable Fantasy players from both of those teams, from midfield there was Gylfi Sigurdsson (4.8 ppm) and Phillips (4.3ppm) and Llorente (4.4 ppm) from the striker bracket. West Brom’s strikers however, were not a good source for Fantasy points.

So we can be cautiously optimistic that Newcastle assets such as midfielder and set piece specialist Matt Ritchie and striker Dwight Gayle can be viable Fantasy assets.

Brighton’s projected goals scored of 38 compares well with Burnley, who were not a good source of attacking Fantasy points last season. As an example, of the players that were there from the start of the season the best record in midfield belongs to Steven Defour with 2.8 ppm. Up front Andre Gray and SamVokes managed 3.4ppm and 3.3ppm respectively. Remember how we were all so optimistic about Gray this time last year?

So confidence in the Brighton attack has to be somewhat tempered, meaning the likes of Anthony Knockaert, Pascal Groß and Glenn Murray need a “Buyer Beware” sticker attached to them.

I’m still optimistic with Groß’s role as their #10, but maybe a wait and see approach is a better course of action to start the season.

As for Huddersfield. Oh dear, 24 goals doesn’t look good at all.

The closest comparison from last season is Middlesbrough with 27 goals. As a ‘Boro fan myself, I can attest that we were not a good source of Fantasy production. Again, this time last year there was optimism for the creative talents of Gaston Ramirez and the top flight experience of Alvaro Negredo, neither of whom turned out to be worthy Fantasy assets.

It therefore seems likely that the current enthusiasm, within the FFS community comments and rate my teams, for the likes of midfielder Tom Ince and striker Steve Mounie is unfounded.

Defensive performance

From the data analysis we can expect the number of goals conceded to increase by either 17 or by about 38%. Applying these assumptions to the promoted teams’ prior season stats we get the following results

Both Newcastle and Brighton had the same defensive record so we can assume they will have comparable results to each other in the Premier League too.

Their projected goals conceded of 56 compares closely with Burnley and Stoke from last season and only marginally higher than Boro.

Burnley’s Heaton (4.3 ppm) and Stoke’s Butland(4 ppm)/Grant (3.8ppm) all provided good PPM last season, with Heaton being top of all keepers that played the majority of games.

This certainly gives us hope that either Magpies stopper Rob Elliot or Seagulls keeper Mathew Ryan can prove to be solid options in goal this year. With 4.0 priced Elliot already having a 15% ownership it appears that many have already seen his potential, albeit as their backup keeper.

As for the defenders, the returns from Burnley were; Michael Keane (3.2 ppm), Ben Mee (2.8 ppm) and Matt Lowton (2.5 ppm), from Stoke the returns were ErikPieters (2.9 ppm) and Ryan Shawcross (2.7 ppm).

We can therefore assume that both Newcastle and Brighton defenders will provide similar returns and could be adequate £4.5 defenders when used in a two or three way rotation.

So that brings the likes of Newcastle’s Florian Lejeune and Brighton duo Lewis Dunk and Markus Suttner into contention. It may take a couple of games into the season to figure out who the chosen defenders are for each side, but once that is known, you can take your pick.

For Huddersfield’s defense the picture looks a lot less appealing. The projected goals conceded is 77 (about two per game) and is comparable with Hull’s 80 conceded from last season. Hull’s first clean sheet last season came in Gameeek 23, surprisingly a 0-0 draw away at Manchester United, followed in Gameweek23 by a 2-0 victory at home to Liverpool. Wonders will never cease.

It’s safe to say that clean sheets should be a scarcity and for that reason I would suggest that their defense should not be considered from the start. If there are signs of significant improvements or they face an exceptional run of easy games, then it may warrant a short term inclusion, but with a significant risk.