Market Forces – Gameweek 3

As we move into the first international break of 2017/18, you might think that Fantasy Football managers will take advantage to think and reflect. But many have been quick to hit the market following another turbulent weekend in Fantasy Premier League.

The folly of making early moves was exposed on Sunday afternoon, with Mo Salah – subject to more than 180,000 sales last week – coming back to bite that rushed to bring in Paul Pogba, as we reported in our previous article.

The key message this week is choices, choices: there are many expensive key assets failing to perform, with a plethora of options available to managers.

Continuing our series of weekly articles for Fantasy Football Scout, we at whogottheassist.com are reviewing and commenting on trends and behaviours in the market, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

Here are the top targets earning the attention of FPL managers as they react to Gameweek 3:

Roberto Firmino and Alvaro Morata

Yet another blank from Harry Kane has persuaded almost 65,000 managers to part company as the August hoodoo took effect once again.

Similarly, a 28-minute sub appearance for Arsenal’s Alexandre Lacazette and no goals for the last round’s flavour of the week, West Ham’s Chicharito, have resulted in flash sales of around 55,000 apiece.

Sergio Aguero has also shed plenty of owners after dropping to the bench for the first time this season on Saturday.

The main beneficiaries of these trends have been Alvaro Morata of Chelsea and Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino, who both served up 12-point hauls in Gameweek 3. They’re almost neck-and-neck for interest, earning 125,000+ and 112,000 new owners each respectively.

Crucially, Firmino has attracted almost 20,000 Kane owners which, in turn, is driving investment in heavy-hitters in midfield with the spare funds.

In the case of Morata, his pair of goals and assists in three matches (the first as a sub) appears to have convinced many that he can match or even surpass Diego Costa’s 20 goals and 11 assists from last season.

Morata’s 10.0 price tag is ideal for those either trading up a cheaper forward or downgrading an expensive option (such as Kane) to free up funds elsewhere while retaining a “premium” striker.

With Firmino, it seems that, despite the output of Anfield team-mates Sadio Mane and Mo Salah, the Brazilian continues to flourish as the established number nine.

Firmino’s 8.5 price tag, of course, allows a fantastic amount of flexibility for Kane sellers (4.0m difference) to either invest the cash elsewhere or to hoard for later use when other assets pop.

Sadio Mane

The red roulette continued as Sadio Mane fired his third goal in three Gameweeks, driving another 77,000 to make the move for the Senegalese.

Mane has been a key beneficiary of the exodus on last season’s top assister Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian has so far been unable to live up to his initial 10.0 price tag; shed by 200,000+ prior to Saturday’s three-point return at Bournemouth, he’s lost more than 107,000 managers ahead of Gameweek 4.

An issue with Mane, though, continues to be his lack of bonus points.

Despite ranking second in the Bonus Points System for midfielders, he is yet to pick up a single bonus despite scoring in every match. Firmino has dominated here, with extra credit in the Bonus Points System gained from his forward classification a major factor, along with his all-round contribution via key passes, big chances created and even tackles.

Mo Salah

On the bench in Gameweek 2 ahead of a Champions League qualifier, Salah inspired many knee jerk maneuvers as he was sold off to accommodate Pogba, in particular.

However, a goal and assist this weekend delivered instant regret for those who feared further Liverpool rotation.

Back down to 9.0 again, he’s gained over 73,000 new owners overnight, with the likes of Willian and even Christian Eriksen making way.

A trip to Manchester City appears less than inviting following the break, although Liverpool’s pace on the counter and big-match mentality may well see Salah and Jurgen Klopp’s attack prosper once more.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan

The Armenian assist machine supplied yet another for Marcus Rashford against Leicester City for his fifth of the season; further Fantasy investment has followed.

Mkhitaryan has claimed a further 78,000 owners on top of the almost 550,000 he has accrued since a pair of assists in Gameweek 1. Inevitably, a good slice of the recent interest has followed De Bruyne’s blank – over 17,000 have made that swap.

However, an ownership of almost 20% still makes him a relative differential compared to team-mate Pogba, who is now part of 35% of squads and rising. The Frenchman has collected another 56,000, with 10,000 of those heading from De Bruyne.

The two United midfielders are now joint top in the FPL standings, creating a scenario similar to the Dele Alli vs Eriksen debate that ran throughout last season.

With Pogba the goalscorer versus Mkhitaryan the creator – the question of whether to choose one or both is set to rumble on for the foreseeable future.

Together with the availability of Firmino and Morata as options up top, this could also be a factor in driving owners away from Romelu Lukaku.

The striker’s ownership is edging towards a decline for the first time this season – over 25,000 have sold the Belgian, creating a Net Transfers In (NTI) of just over 4000 currently.

With United’s defence keeping three successive clean sheets and with Mkhitaryan and Pogba far cheaper in midfield, the option to sell on Lukaku could yet have some merit, provided the likes of Morata and Firmino can maintain their output.

The derailed bandwagons

Ahmed Hegazi has brought in a jaw dropping 850,000 new owners since Gameweek 1, but that will surely slow now that West Brom have conceded for the first time.

The fact that the goal was a result of the defender’s error might further staunch the flow of buyers, though 65,000 have swooped so far, ensuring that he is still FPL’s most popular defensive target.

It’s now possibly a case of existing owners holding (sitting pretty with a 0.1 resale profit if purchased at 4.5 or 4.6) but prospective buyers considering their options, with the likes of Huddersfield’s Zanka (37,000 new owners) and 4.0 Newcastle United asset Chancel Mbemba (nearly 50,000 new owners) also garnering interest.

Stoke City’s Jese was another to suffer from The Hawthorns showing. He endured just 61 minutes of the tawdry 1-1 draw and failed to make any real impression.

The Spaniard – whose price was frozen for a week as a new entrant to the game – has seen his bandwagon derailed dramatically as his 330,000+ new owners were left disappointed by the blank following his promising debut in Gameweek 2.

Jese has still gained 31,000+ new owners ahead of Gameweek 4, although another 19,000 have already moved him out following the Baggies showing.

Meanwhile, owners of West Ham’s Chicharito have been quick to reassess after his single-point showing at Newcastle.

The Mexican is second only to Kane for sales among forwards, with 55,000 showing him the door – that’s in stark contrast to last week, when a brace attracted almost 475,000 to snap him up.

After three away matches, a return to the London Stadium could help West Ham turn their season around. Many will be happy to hold Chicharito – at least for Gameweek 4’s matchup with Huddersfield – in the hope that the season kicks off for the struggling Hammers.

The Wildcard Factors

Those considering pulling the Wildcard over the break should obviously think very carefully before committing.

The chip can be played all the way up until Gameweek 21, so while using it early can offer an obvious immediate boost, it will reveal your hand to rivals who have it retained for later use.

The extent of your surgery is crucial, and it’s important to weigh up the chip next to the flexibility offered by transfer hits.

It’s also vital to consider that there will be other periods – Gameweek 6 for example – when the fixtures swing to introduce players from sides that are currently unfashionable.

We’ve also yet to see how the likes of Eden Hazard, Alexis Sanchez and Philippe Coutinho will influence our midfield selections. While we may get clarity on that trio’s future and return dates over the break, we will not have the opportunity to weigh up their form on the pitch.

That said, a key strategy of making the Wildcard active over the international break is to build squad value by transferring in rising assets and selling those in decline. This means closely monitoring the market.

Remember, you need a rise of 0.2 overall to gain 0.1 sale value to your side, but if you sell a player who has risen just 0.1 and want him back, you’ll have to pay the extra despite you initially owning him at a cheaper price.

The current situation certainly appears suited to such a strategy, with Kane destined to fall by 0.2 at least during this period.

Meanwhile, Firmino and his Liverpool team-mates could experience a rise of 0.2. With Pogba and Mkhitaryan continuing to climb and Chelsea’s Morata also in the ascent, there are clear options to explore that will improve your overall squad value and, hopefully points potential.

There’s also the added advantage of being able to react to the Premier League transfer window that closes on Thursday.

While we won’t have the time to see how any deadline day moves influence teamsheets, this may still give some advantage if – for example – a new budget option becomes available as a result of a loan move. Having the Wildcard active to react quickly to these developments could prove handy.

However, we have seen the price rise and falls slow markedly this season and with transfer activity set to lull over the next few days, the changes in market value may not be as volatile as anticipated.

Final Thoughts

It’s a tough old world out there in the market, with the potential for early moves to backfire spectacularly.

Although it can be tempting to try and catch the price changes, it could be that remaining strong in the face of mass sales and trusting your key men to deliver could pay off – at least until we have more Gameweek data to consider.

More than eight million transfers were made ahead of Saturday’s deadline, highlighting the extent of the activity, and how tricky it can be to make careful, informed decisions amid such noise.

Kane’s failings, along with De Bruyne’s struggles and the surge from Firmino and Morata, have sparked a lot of movement. With funds liberated from those expensive assets, the options are plentiful, but we should always remember that the data at our disposal to drive our decisions is still very limited.

This is a new series of articles written by Nick (Matamatics) and Tom (Individual), founders of ‘Who Got The Assist’ (www.whogottheassist.com, @WGTA_FPL on Twitter) – a website and podcast devoted to FPL.