The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 4

There’s been a lot of Wildcard chatter over the international – not least on our ScoutCast.

My decision to commit early has, understandably perhaps, come under scrutiny. Having been forced to duck out of Tuesday’s hearing, I now have the opportunity to state my case.

The frustration now is that my Wildcard will be judged in hindsight – the validity of my decision based on my Gameweek 4 total and little else.

Regardless of how this weekend pans out, I stand by the decision with the timing.

For me, the Wildcard is governed by two things – problems and opportunities.

Looking at my squad and looking ahead, I saw both.

Firstly, the idea that an early Wildcard is used to pursue price rises is a narrow view. It completely disregards declining prices, and these were perhaps more important at this time.

I was facing four drops over the break which, along with the rise on Roberto Firmino, was a significant 0.5 swing. I could have saved one of these with my free transfer, but the slow leak of funds would not have been stemmed; not without transfer hits.

We can scoff at the significance of every 0.1 but, I argue that early in the season, the issues with our budget are magnified.

Every season I’m blocked on one or two transfers by a 0.1 margin. I was determined to do all I can to minimise those future frustrations.

So I reject the assumption that my squad did not require surgery.

I had Scott Dann, Ryan Fraser and Kevin De Bruyne who all needed removing – the prospects of all three are unlikely to improve in Gameweek 4. I also had Harry Kane dropping in price.

Those were the problems I could solve. Now the opportunities.

For all the relative inactivity, the transfer window helped create some of these.

We now know that Newcastle United’s Rob Elliot is cemented as a 4.0 goalkeeper option. Given his fixtures, I can now explore a 8.0 solution in this position, particularly with Brighton’s Tim Krul offering potential – perhaps not immediately – as a second active keeper at this price.

Equally, I could make the downgrade from Ryan Bertrand to Cedric and save another 0.5.

Owners of Maya Yoshida, Jack Stephens and Bertrand will likely be pondering a similar move – Virgil van Dijk’s failure to negotiate a transfer has cast new doubt on that defence and made Cedric the most likely target.

With Jonny Evans also remaining at West Brom, it means that Ahmed Hegazi could come under threat. With the Wildcard, I can now cash out on the Egyptian, pocket some profit and dispose of any anxiety over his starting role from this point.

In addition, news of Nathaniel Clyne’s injury allows me to jump on the prospect of Trent Alexander-Arnold becoming a prime 4.5 property.

I’ll have him in place for Gameweek 5 against Burnley, in the hope that Klopp goes for his attacking talents to help break down the teams that sit back at Anfield – the very fixtures I want to cover.

I could also explore an “opportunity” with Alexandre Lacazette as a differential captain.

This meant I could perhaps delay the acquisition of Harry Kane for Gameweek 5, perhaps picking him up at 10.3 should he fail to score at Everton today. It may backfire, but, hopefully not spectacularly.

These are all opportunities that you and I could investigate in weeks to come. But, having committed now, it means that my transfers from this point can seek out other possibilities.

While others consider Cedric, Hegazi, Liverpool’s right-back and the potential of an 8.0 keeper solution with future trades, I’ve moved on.

Aside from this, I’ve heard accusations that my squad will likely be in more need of the Wildcard in weeks to come.

This smacks of planning to fail. It’s akin to postponing the plumber until the water leak is a deluge.

Why are we comfortable presuming that our squads will get progressively worse or dramatically slump? It could happen, but it’s hardly a positive outlook.

If we’re convincing ourselves that, by the next international break, the Wildcard will be more urgent, are we not in danger of accepting 2-3 Gameweeks of mediocrity in the mean time?

It makes little sense to me. If you can identify problems – enough problems – and also see opportunities to exploit, then the early Wildcard clearly has merit.

You can correct issues, seize on openings and that will free up transfers from that point to prevent the squad disaster that others are predicting.

There’s also the premise that Alexis Sanchez and Eden Hazard will enter the equation, making the late Wildcard far more sensible.

That could definitely happen.

However, by the next international break, will we really be keen to lose either Romelu Lukaku or Kane to make way for one of that pair? Kane has just blanked for three matches, and we’re still nervous about going without.

Equally, how much more midfield value are Sanchez and Hazard going to offer over Sadio Mane, Mo Salah, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Paul Pogba, Alli or Eriksen?

There is a limit to the big hitters we can afford, and for Sanchez and Hazard to truly prove the inspiration behind a future Wildcard, their ascent will need to be timed with a decline for other options. That may not happen.

These we’re all factors behind my decision but, above all, I’ve rebuilt now because I’m not keen to accept that my squad will be worse than what I saw coming out of Gameweek 3.

As I’ve said, everything will now be judged purely on my player selections and their points; the logic behind the timing of the Wildcard will be forgotten.

I’m rarely confident in all my player picks come Saturday morning. However, I remain convinced that, for me, this was the right time for change.