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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    How can i do my team better in the coming gameweeks?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Femenia
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner
    0 ft right now - 0,0mil IB

    1. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Pick the right captain

    2. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Same as my team. Except mine better as have foster mane Niasse over Hennessy sterling quaner

      Thinking about it not sure about the better bit !

  2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Between Femenia, Kabasele and Zeegelaar who wins it for you in your team?
    Assuming price were not an issue

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Fememia

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Is it his goal threat? Zeegelaar looks very good for assists. Do you think Kabasele can keep up his scoring rate or has he done his bit for the season?

        1. zotter
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Always pick a wing back over centre back. And fememia more nailed v zee

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Amazing names the Watford defenders have tbh. Just so exciting... Kabasele sounds like a type of exotic fruit like a papaya or something.

    3. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Femenia for me

    4. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Femenia! Certain starter and good attacken threat. Also gets bonus every clean sheet Watford have

    5. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers all! Femenia will be the one entering my team next week

    6. Gruu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Kiko for me

  3. SomeoneKnows
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Any idea if Mane is going to play this gameweek?

    1. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      He will

    2. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Almost certainly. Might not in the midweek after tho

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      The teamsheet in 30 minutes will provide some clues.

  4. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Want Hazard in my team and still have my wildcard available. Will take 3 moves to get him. Should I..

    A.) Use the wildcard
    B.) Take a -8 and save WC

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

      Gotta use that WC at some point buddy 🙂

    2. dark91
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A and improve your team overall

    3. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      It depends on the rest of your team

      1. AFC49
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Team is linked mate

        1. Mackans
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          I would take (-8) because you have a great team overall:)

          1. Homer21
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            NOT THIS

    4. Homer21
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Would have now is best time to use your wildcard

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A! It runs out in few weeks anyways doesn’t it??

      1. AFC49
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah GW20

  5. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hiya lads,

    Elliot + Mustafi + Wilson > DDG + Zeegelaar + DCL worth a -8?
    (Alternatively i could do Ward > Mbemba and keep Mustafi)

    Have exact cash to do this, Kane going down in price, Elliot dropped, Zeegelaar rising.

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nobody? anyone?

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Here I am! Wait a mo

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I don't think it's worth -8 (depending on your other gk), Mustafi is decent value and could be back for next week

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers WP, my other keeper is Krul haha 🙂
        I agree about Mustafi, and i could keep him by moving on Ward instead as above.
        For Context, my team is:

        Elliot
        Christensen - Otamendi - Mustafi
        Richarlison - Hazard - Salah - Sterling
        Kane - Morata - Wilson
        ______________________________
        Krul: Ward, Moreno, RLC

  6. Jon Bones Jones
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    This is my first season. Everybody is talking about Spurs and WH double gameweek. Is it important so much that you, because of that, change your team so much ( 3 from Spurs, 3 from WH! ) or is overrated?

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nah, would be no need to have three from each, i'll just be rolling with Kane, and maybe a spurs defender, dunno yet.

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You don't need 3 from each at all. I really wouldn't consider any West Ham players on current form, and maybe 2 Spurs if they keep this up.

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Seeing as it's your first season, a trend (which may or may nor continue this year) was that goalkeepers with DGWs tended to do very well. I would be eyeing Kane and maybe Lloris, Eriksen if Spurs are in form by then.

        1. Jon Bones Jones
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          My gk is DDG and midfield is Hazard, Salah, Sterling, Richarlison and RLC. So it's going to be little hard for me to sell them :). Thanks for advice

    3. Jon Bones Jones
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I only have Kane from those two teams and don't have a plan to bring anybody else ( maybe Eriksen but my midfield is so strong, don't want to drop anybody) . And when Spurs don't play the week before, I also don't want to sell Kane. My bench would be DCL, RLC and Moreno or Femenia. So I'm thinking it's ok if I leave Kane in my team in that gameweek when he is not playing. Your opinion on that?

      1. Johnny Leghorn
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        I'm planning on shifting Kane out after GW17 and getting back for GW22. Only Southampton at home is a real risky fixture.
        Just need to keep the rebuy money easily available so don't spread it around too much.

  7. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Alonso and Shaqiri?

    Or

    Coutinho and DCL?

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Alonso and shaq

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks, O.T. What's the thinking?

        1. The Overthinker
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Chelsea are a team where you will get cs. His attacking threat are just bonus

          Shaq is the centre of stoke's attack, take set pieces and is in really good form .

          Had it been between Alonso and coutinho I would have maybe selected coutinho.
          Don't really fancy DCL.

          So as a combo Alonso and shaq have higher ceiling than coutinho and dcl.

          Hope it justifies my opinion and is convincing to you FPLV

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Thanks so much, very helpful!

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Couts and DCL

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Why?

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Well, for me, i was just loking at it seperately, like Alonso vs Coutinho, Couts obvs the better player, and i reckon DCL will perform better than Shaqiri also should he get starts.

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Interesting. Thanks!

            1. Salah’s Sonnet
              • 12 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Welcome mate

    3. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Very tough. In the end, Alonso hasn't been performing consistently enough so far this season to warrant an expenditure of 6.9... Couts is a classic pick and DCL is maybe at the head of an Everton revival. More upside with B?

    4. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    5. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      The one with Coutinho in

  8. zotter
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    My predicted pool front four:

    Tonight. Coutinho. Mane. Salah. Firmino

    Everton. Coutinho. Mane. Salah. Sturridge

    Wba. Lallana. Mane. Ox. Firmino

    Bourne. Coutinho. Ox. Salah. Firmino.

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Coutinho will get baggies! Defensive team needs unlocking 🙂

  9. Red Dagger ✪
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Niasse to DCL worth a -4 this week..?
    Or just hold and do next week and play RLC instead in a 352
    Or just wait and see if Big Sam starts to play Niasse.

    Cheers for the advice as always...

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Not worth a -4 as long as you have viable other starter. Everton game stinks. And it also allows you to assess who is nailed.

      1. zotter
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Rlc yes

        1. zotter
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Surely you would play Rlc over dlc anyway this week

          1. Red Dagger ✪
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Yes true.

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Defo wouldn't do it for a -4, would play RLC this gw, doubt he'll get anything v us. think waiting to see how it plays out for a couple of gws would be the best course of action.

      1. Red Dagger ✪
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers as always WWKY.

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Guess I'm concerned if price rises get away from me so do the switch. Going to play Kane + Morata + a viable cheap 3rd for the foreseeable future.

    4. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Hold surely, most DCL owners are starting RLC too.

    5. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Hooold

  10. Speédy
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Start or bench Mustafi?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Start surely if you have him. Who are other options.

      1. Speédy
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Duffy and Daniels on the bench. Christensen and Mee starting

        1. zotter
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Start Duffy. Sell mustafi

  11. zotter
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    For the double. Thinking

    Get lloris in next couple weeks. After city game

    Keep Kane throughout

    Get lanzini soon for richarlison.

    Then transfer in alli or eriksen that week.

  12. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Will Wilson start next game?

    Yes or no

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes.

    2. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes imo

  13. simvik91
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    What's the reasoning behind having the injured Atsu (£4.9m) on the watchlist, but not RLC (£4.6m)? Even when fit, the latter seem like much better value for money, no?

  14. Clifford☯
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Best defender upto 5.0 to replace Daniels?
    Rest of the defenders are Azpilicueta, Otamendi, Maguire & Dunk.

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Probably femenia, or moreno

    2. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Mariappa given the rest of your defence

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Sakho, Femenia, Moreno

    4. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers everyone.

  15. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    You feel Ronaldo will start tonight? Worth moving my UCL captain from Pogba to CR7?

    1. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Easiest choice

  16. ZeBestee
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Which 2 will you start?

    1) Ward
    2) Daniels
    3) Ota

    1. Jeremy Corbyn
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ward

      1. ZeBestee
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        You meant bench Ward right?

    2. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ward. Ota

    3. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ota & Ward - I think United wanna keep it tight and i dont think they will score. Ward över Daniels because Burnley have a bryter defence

    4. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Thanks all

  17. nicecat
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone knows if Niasse has lost his spot in starting 11 to DCL?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Big Sam does

      1. nicecat
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Well if you could give me his phone number, that would be great.

        1. Monkey Hanger
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Can you ask him about Kenny too?

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Impossible to know

  18. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    G2G?

    Fabianski
    Azpi - Mee - Moreno - Ota
    Hazard - KDB - Salah (C) - RLC
    Morata - Kane

    Elliot - Crouch - King - Hunemeier

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Captain Morata hazard or Kane tho

      1. Drogba Legend
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        You think pool won't be able to break down a Big Sam bus?

    2. Dreaming of glory
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      On salah c myself from similar team

  19. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Who to bench?

    a) Naughton

    b) Daniels

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B.

    2. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Bench Naughton

  20. AdamJ91
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Any suggested changes to make or G2G for this weekend?

    Did consider Abraham > DCL but Swansea have a better fixture than Everton this GW so it gives me an extra week to assess.

    Gomes - Elliot
    Mee - Moreno - Otamendi - Dunk - Kiko
    Hazard - D.Silva - Salah - Richarlison - RLC
    Morata - Kane - Abraham

    0.2 ITB; 1 FT

    1. Drogba Legend
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No need to make a FT in my opinion

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Silva could miss the derby.

      1. AdamJ91
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Could just be Pep talk, will probably risk it.

  21. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Pick one to play from

    Daniels (cry)
    Moreno (EVE)
    Dunk (hud)

    &

    Play two to play from

    Gross (hud)
    Richarlison (bur)
    Abraham (WBA)

    Any ideas would be welcomed

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Moreno. Gross. Richarlison

  22. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on this team?

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Femenia
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner
    0 ft right now - 0,0mil IB

    1. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nice mate 🙂

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Very good. Possibly Alonzo to Christensen and Hennessey to DDG if you can do it...

      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah good idea! I must uppgrade my keeper anyways

  23. Viper
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    How would this look with 1FT used.

    Foster Elliot (Foster - > Gomes next week)

    Christensen Moreno Mee (Daniels Otamendi)

    Hazard Salah Sterling Groß (RLC)

    (K)ane Morata Wilson

    1. Dreaming of glory
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Spot on

  24. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Play one
    A Duffy
    B Ward

    Have Richarlison

    1. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ward

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Duffy

    3. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Duffy

    4. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Tough one. I think if the Richarlison factor is not considered,Ward is the better option.

    5. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B. I have Richarlison too, and I'm benching him. I would play both the two above before the Brazilian kid.

  25. mogadishu
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Sane owners, are we jumping ship?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I did this morning.

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Jumped already

    3. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nop. Tight

    4. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You don't have to copy other people, just get rid innit.

  26. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Would you take any hits? FT was Jones > Christensen.

    Pope
    Maguire Christensen Alonso
    Salah (V) Zaha Sterling Richarlison
    Kane (C) Morata Wilson

    Foster Moreno Carroll Cedric

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No. Nice team

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Jones looks to be coming back. You might need him back after the derby. Loose Cedric for Kiko maybe

  27. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Is Silva really out? Should I do?
    Davies and D.Silva -> Kiko and Coutinho for a -4?

    1. Strchld
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Have already Firmino and Silva only city assets.

  28. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    First team from Liverpool.Everyone is playing.

    1. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Except from Mignolet.

    2. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Would expect the same for the derby, rests next midweek probably

  29. Ramboros
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Sané starting for City really makes it seem likely that he'll be rested against Swansea.

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Pep.

      1. La Roja
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        peroni

      2. The Overthinker
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Si?

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Wouldn't draw any conclusions from this, we've thought things like that a number of times.

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Only to get proven wrong

    3. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Pep has already told the media how important Sane is in his current position. No way he misses the derby.

      1. Ramboros
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Afaik Swansea has no derby against City.

  30. StoichkovFPL
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Sterling, Ota, Kun rested
    Sane, Jesus starting

    1. StoichkovFPL
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      perfect

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      literally perfect 🙂

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers, Sterling seeming more and more nailed now

    4. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Haha. Pep will then send out the same lineup against Man utd