Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 21 – The Strong

With some brief respite before Gameweek 21, we now take time to assess how the rapid turnaround in fixtures has influenced the schedule to follow.

This is an interesting period, with the fixtures “flipping”, meaning that teams will come up against the same opponent twice in the space of five Gameweeks.

The six matches are also interrupted by a break for the FA Cup prior to Gameweek 23, while Gameweek 25 hands us a full midweek programme before the end of January.

With that in mind, we start our analysis by revealing those sides who appear to be handed the most favourable match-ups over this period and beyond.

Chelsea

(STK ars LEI bha BOU wat)
The Prospects – Goals
While doubts build on the viability of clinging to a stuttering Eden Hazard, the schedule suggests that this is not a time to abandon cover of the Chelsea attack.

Arguably, Antonio Conte’s side are blessed with the most prosperous run of opponents when it comes to the potential for goals – a spell that begins with the visit of Stoke City on Saturday.

The Potters have conceded more goals than any other side (41) and will arrive at Stamford Bridge low on confidence and ravaged by injuries.

Further home fixtures with Leicester City and Bournemouth should also deliver profit for the Chelsea attack. The Foxes have just one clean sheet away from home all season, while Bournemouth are in alarming defensive form, conceding a league-high 15 goals from their last six matches.

The away trips will be more testing for Conte’s men, though Liverpool exposed Arsenal’s defence at the Emirates, while Watford remain fragile at Vicarage Road.

Arguably, the Gameweek 24 trip to Brighton could be the toughest of the three in terms of the potential for goals. The Seagulls have kept three clean sheets in their previous four matches at the Amex Stadium.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Chelsea’s defence go into this period in superb form having allowed the fewest shots on target (nine) over the last six Gameweeks, conceding just three goals.

Indeed, since N’Golo Kante returned to screen the back three, the defence have conceded just four goals in ten matches.

There is clearly promise of further returns over their six-match stretch with the home fixtures, in particular, looking bountiful.

Leicester will carry a threat in Gameweek 23, but Conte’s rearguard will surely be backed to shut out both Stoke City and Bournemouth.

On the road, Chelsea have allowed just eight big chances all season – a league-high statistic.

That will be tested at Arsenal, and while a clean sheet seems unlikely there, both Brighton and Watford will struggle to penetrate the Chelsea rearguard.

The Turning Point
Chelsea’s favourable run extends to Gameweek 28, at which point they face an evil pair of away trips at both Manchester United and Manchester City.

The Verdict
Cover of the Chelsea defence looks wise given the alignment of fixtures and form. Marcos Alonso is clearly the luxury item but with Andreas Christensen also looking an assured starter at a lower price; there is no real barrier to cover defensive returns.

There is even cause to considering doubling-up on what appears to be the in-form defence, particularly if you are considering shunning the Chelsea attack. While Hazard and Alvaro Morata may currently be struggling to offer value, the fixtures are certainly in their favour, and we should show caution in abandoning both options.

Manchester City

(cry WAT liv NEW WBA bur)
The Prospects – Goals
Pep Guardiola’s side hardly need the fixtures to help boost their fire power – they are capable of goals against any opponent with an average of more than three per game to this point.

But across the next six, home matches Watford, Newcastle and West Brom provide the platform for further emphatic victories and big Fantasy returns. Over their last six away matches, those three teams have collected just two clean sheets between them.

City’s opponents on the road will likely put up more resistance, though the first of these, Crystal Palace, are yet to keep a clean sheet at Selhurst Park.

Both Liverpool and Burnley rank among the top home defences, however, and will surely test City’s firepower.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Guardiola’s defence continues to excel, with their possession-based football protecting the back four to reap a league-high ten clean sheets to this point.

Only four of those shutouts have arrived at the Etihad Stadium but, while Watford will carry a threat in Gameweek 22, the meetings with Newcastle and particularly West Brom give the City defence an opportunity to boost that tally.

Strong on their travels – with six clean sheets so far – City will be stretched at Anfield but will fancy their chances of returns at Palace and Burnley.

The Turning Point
Gameweek 28 is again the hotspot for Fantasy managers to watch for, with City facing a double-header against Arsenal and Chelsea at that point.

In truth, those fixtures are unlikely to stifle Fantasy interest. It will be signs of complacency and rotation around Champions League fixtures that are more likely to convince us to reconsider their assets, and that could kick in sooner than expected as the gap at the top widens.

The Verdict
While Liverpool’s midfield is tempting investment, this is perhaps not a time to abandon all faith in Guardiola’s key attackers.

Strikers Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus remain a no-go area while their job share continues, but the midfield selection box of Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane, Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva should continue to profit. However, with personal issues restricting Silva’s minutes and Sane seemingly more vulnerable to rotation, the options are now more limited.

At the back, Nicolas Otamendi remains the big draw and a key target. With Vincent Kompany picking up another injury at Newcastle United last night, the option to rest the Argentine looks closed off for now.

West Ham United

(Blank WBA/tot hud BOU CRY bha)
The Prospects – Goals
It seems remiss to include a team in our selection who blank in the Gameweek to come, but West Ham’s schedule should not be overlooked in light of their double-header in Gameweek 22.

The Hammers have improved in attack since David Moyes took charge from Gameweek 13, averaging 1.3 goals per game compared with 0.9 under Slaven Bilic.

The difference has been an improvement in the quality of chances created and the decision to shift Marko Arnautovic to a central striker role.

The forthcoming home fixtures with West Brom, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace – with Watford to follow – look strong on paper. However, those first three visitors are all capable of stubborn resistance. Moyes men will need Manuel Lanzini’s craft to help break down their defences and the visit of an enterprising Watford in Gameweek 26 could well be more profitable.

Similarly, away from home, the trip to Spurs – just two days after the home clash with West Brom – will be a major test. Their London rivals have conceded in four of their last six at Wembley Stadium, however, suggesting that double Gameweek investment could be rewarded.

The visits to Huddersfield Town and Brighton look more profitable, though both can be resilient opponents in front of their own fans.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Despite recent form – conceding six goals from their last two outings – the fixtures offer the Hammers the opportunity to get things back on track.

The London Stadium meetings with West Brom, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace all offer the platform for defensive returns. Those three teams all sit in the bottom five for goals scored in away matches.

Clearly Spurs – with Harry Kane in irresistible form – will be expected to breach Moyes’ defence in Gameweek 22, but the Huddersfield and Brighton attacks are far less convincing. They have both scored 10 goals from 10 home matches and are two of the bottom four teams when it comes to shots in the box.

The Turning Point
West Ham’s schedule remains strong right up to Gameweek 30 with just the trip to Spurs and a visit to Liverpool in Gameweek 28 providing “top six” tests.

The Verdict
Both the Hammers defence and their improved attack should offer value once we’ve navigated through the blank, though we should remain wary overloading for the Gameweek 22 double.

Adrian will be expected to remain first choice in goal – despite a dip in defensive form – and could well be their most profitable double Gameweek option.

Angelo Ogbonna and the enterprising Arthur Masuaku are also credible targets, while in attack, our interest should be limited to one of Lanzini or Arnautovic.

With the fixtures remaining kind beyond Gameweek 22, the risk on one of that pair for the double is eased somewhat by the promise of returns to come.

Given current form, it’s the Austrian who has jumped the queue, unless Mark Noble drops out of the starting XI and Lanzini can wrestle back penalty kicks.

Also Consider…

Brighton
We’re now entering a crucial period for the promoted club, with a prolonged run of favourable fixtures. Saturday’s trip to Newcastle sets the tone before a very winnable home tie with Bournemouth precedes a visit to West Brom. The Gameweek 24 visit from Chelsea is their only daunting opponent until they host Arsenal in Gameweek 29.

In Fantasy terms, Pascal Gross could be revived over this spell, though our interest is likely to focus mainly on the defence, with Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy key targets.

Arsenal
Tonight’s trip to Selhurst Park is one of three away matches over the next four Gameweeks, with Chelsea’s visit to the Emirates in Gameweek 22 their home opponent. While that’s a testing period, things pick up from that point with two home matches against Crystal Palace and Everton bookending a trip to bottom club Swansea City.

That run should see an upturn in points output from both the Gunners’ attack and defence, though targets are difficult to pin down. Alexandre Lacazette and Mesut Ozil remain largely differentials, with the fit-again Shkodran Mustafi perhaps the most viable backline option at present.

Leicester City
Still relatively untrusted as a source of Fantasy talent, it is the Foxes three home fixtures over the next six Gameweeks that show great promise.

Claude Puel’s men will host Watford, Huddersfield Town and Swansea City in their next three at the King Power Stadium. While their away trips in this spell are daunting (liv che eve), there’s an argument to say that Riyad Mahrez could still come through this spell in profit.

Meanwhile, with a rotation option – perhaps from Watford – to work with Harry Maguire in defence or Demarai Gray as a budget midfielder, both could deliver.

Stoke City
It’s a similar story for the Potters who, while struggling for form and confidence, will look at forthcoming home matches as vital to easing relegation fears.

Newcastle, Huddersfield and Watford all visit the bet 365 Stadium over the next five Gameweeks, giving Mark Hughes’ side the platform to find mid-table safety. Again, if Fantasy managers can look at rotation options for Shaqiri or Eric Choupo-Moting, there could be scope to revisit them as midfield options over this period.