Frisking The Fixtures – Gameweek 21 – The Weak

Having already assessed the teams that present favourable schedules over the next six Gameweeks, we now identify those that suffer a more gruelling opening to 2018.

Two valuable sources of cut-price defenders leap out as the main concerns, underlining the need for backline rotation options as we head into January.

Meanwhile, while there is the temptation to load up on assets from the Gameweek 22 double, early exit plans could be required when considering Spurs investment.

Burnley

(hud LIV cry MUN new MCI)
The Prospects – Goals
In truth, we barely consider Burnley as a potential source of attacking points, rendering the impact of their schedule as almost academic. With 18 goals so far, they’ve outscored just five other teams despite enjoying their best ever start to a Premier League season.

With Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City the next three visitors to Turf Moor, Sean Dyche’s team may have to look to their improved away form to keep their goal tally ticking.

The Clarets have already scored more goals (11 vs seven) on their travels and will look to fixtures at Huddersfield, Crystal Palace and Newcastle as a platform to extend that run.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
It is the Burnley defence that concerns us most, with those three home fixtures likely to stretch their capabilities to return clean sheets at Turf Moor.

For all their resilience, Dyche’s rearguard are up against the top three sides for goals away from home this season and, having already fallen victim to a devastating Harry Kane hat-trick, it could be too much to ask to keep United, City and Liverpool at bay.

Again then, the away trips could be more profitable with Huddersfield and Newcastle among the bottom six sides for goals in home matches. Palace clearly carry more threat, though a clean sheet at Selhurst Park is not out of the question for the determined Clarets’ rearguard.

The Turning Point
Things improve for Burnley from Gameweek 27, with Swansea, Southampton and Everton their next three opponents. Indeed, from there until Gameweek 36, a Turf Moor clash with Chelsea represents their only major test.

The Verdict
Stephen Ward’s injury and the suspension for James Tarkowski probably provided the early signal to exit on the Burnley defence. As it stands, we’re now looking at the away matches as the main source of points but, with a good rotation with West Ham backline options, we can set up a solution to help us hold through to Gameweek 27. Certainly, it is worth retaining Nick Pope, particularly if you can draft Adrian to swap in for this spell.

Everton

(bou MUN tot WBA LEI ars)
The Prospects – Goals
Like Burnley, we’ve mainly looked to Everton’s potential in defence, though Wayne Rooney’s renaissance has altered the landscape somewhat.

The striker has missed the last two through illness but has been passed fit to return for a Gameweek 21 trip to Bournemouth. The bad news, however, is that his fixture with the Cherries remains Rooney’s best opportunity for points over the next three, with encounters with Manchester United and Spurs to follow.

Sam Allardyce’s side then face Goodison Park encounters with both West Brom and Leicester before visiting Arsenal.

It’s fair to say that we can expect a rearguard action against the three top six sides over this spell, leaving this weekend’s encounter, plus the two remaining home matches, as the most likely source of goals.

Neither Leicester nor West Brom have conceded too much ground on their travels, though collectively they’ve delivered just three clean sheets from 20 away trips.

However, the chilling fact is that, despite Rooney’s recent hauls, Everton have totalled just 40 shots on goal since Allardyce took charge in Gameweek 15 – fewer than any other team.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Again, it’s the defence that is our main priority with Everton.

Their lowly shot count is a by-product of a recent emphasis on clean sheets, with four achieved in six matches under Allardyce.

The Toffees will fancy adding to that total at Bournemouth – only three teams have created fewer big chances in home matches than the Cherries.

But Everton will clearly be tested in the matches with United and Spurs and the Gameweek 26 trip to Arsenal.

The home meetings with Leicester and West Brom are the obvious source of returns, with the Baggies clash by far the more likely to produce a shut-out. Alan Pardew’s side have scored just twice since he took charge in Gameweek 15 and have netted just five times from ten away trips all season.

The Turning Point
Everton’s schedule eases from Gameweek 27, though we will have to wait until the final five matches of the season for a run of opponents that can realistically be deemed as favourable.

The Verdict
The recent investment in Rooney and cut-price option Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be tested at this point. Once the Bournemouth fixture has passed, the prospects over the next five for that pair hinge on the two home fixtures and, given the paltry shot count – our expectations should be managed. More significantly, with Everton seemingly closing in on Cenk Tosun from Besiktas, there are clearly changes afoot which could dent the prospects of both players.

In defence, Jordan Pickford should produce save points to warrant holding and, while Jonjoe Kenny has provided superb value to this point, a rotation partner looks wise.

Again, West Ham offer a handy solution here, providing, of course, that they can exploit their own kind schedule.

Also be wary of…

Tottenham Hotspur
Unlike West Ham, then, we need to be mindful of the fixtures that follow for Spurs after their Gameweek 22 double. The upcoming schedule does not lend itself to increased investment – match-ups with Everton and Southampton may not provide the sternest tests but holding the likes of Son Heung-min or Christian Eriksen – along with Harry Kane – beyond that could be unwise. A daunting trio of opponents in Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal then follow, before things improve again from Gameweek 28.

Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s side are in one of those periods that tempt huge Fantasy investment, with Mohamed Salah, Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino in seemingly irresistible form. But following Saturday’s home fixture with Leicester, they will endure four away trips in the next six Gameweeks, and their two Anfield matches are against Manchester City and Spurs. The kindest away match-ups – at Swansea and Huddersfield Town – also bookend a potential FA Cup fourth round tie, which, depending on the opponent and the priority that Liverpool put on the FA Cup, may even trigger some rotation.

Crystal Palace
Like Liverpool, the Eagles are another side who will face four away trips in the next six Gameweeks once their Gameweek 21 tie with Man City has passed. Burnley and Newcastle provide beatable opponents at Selhurst Park, but it looks essential that Roy Hodgson’s side exploit those matches. Their evil run extends to include a trio of fixtures from Gameweek 28 which will surely limit Fantasy returns (TOT MUN che).

West Brom
The honeymoon period under Alan Pardew has failed to materialise, and with the fixtures turning against them, it’s difficult to see the Baggies breaking out of their malaise to offer any viable Fantasy prospects. Once the Gameweek 21 Hawthorns meeting with Arsenal has passed, they will face four away matches from the next six with Everton, Manchester City and Chelsea among their opponents. Home fixtures with Brighton and Southampton look winnable, but it’s not until Gameweek 28 that the schedule truly turns back in their favour.