Gameweek 38 is a tricky beast – a veritable witching hour of a Gameweek that traditionally serves up a Fantasy bonanza. Some are careless enough to turn their attentions to the golf course 90 minutes early, others sign off in true style.
We can take little for granted. As Wigan have shown, form can be found in the face of a relegation threat, while Spurs have illustrated how easy it is to stumble under the pressure of the race for a Champions League spot. The unfashionable may even gatecrash proceedings, receiving a timely boost from a manager departing for pastures new – I’m looking at you West Brom.
Meanwhile, dispersed amongst the ten fixture culmination, the PGMO have chosen their most experienced officials for the task; with no referee having overseen less than 20 premier league games this season and their cumulative efforts having given us 68 penalties (in 243 games) suggesting that two or three spot kicks would not be too much to ask from the final day’s play.
Lee Mason – Chelsea vs Blackburn Rovers
Subject of a few past articles, Mason sits high in the referee statistics with the third lowest yellow card average (2.48 cards per game) and just a single red card, but the third highest penalty rate (0.39) amongst his peers. This game therefore stands out with a good deal of potential to boost our tallies and with penalty experts like Frank Lampard and Yakubu ready to lap up any offerings, we’re backing goals.
Andre Marriner – Everton vs Newcastle United
With Everton smashing four goals without reply in each of their last two home games, and 10 in their last three, the role of the referee may be diminished here. With Andre Marriner’s lack of penalty spot pointing giving him the lowest average of all the officials on duty (0.10 per game), both Nikica Jelavić and Leighton Baines (if he plays) seem likely to need to call on their alternative talents in this one – even if Newcastle still top the league for penalties conceded (with 9).
Mike Dean – Manchester City vs Queens Park Rangers
Cometh the game, cometh the man, and who else was going to be taking charge of the mouthwaterer at the Etihad than the official with the most games (29), the most yellow cards (106) and of course the most penalties (12) across the refereeing roster. Fantasy points seem drawn to this game, then, and Sergio Agüero must be licking his lips as he looks to justify his place atop the captains poll.
Howard Webb – Sunderland vs Manchester United
Conspiracy theorists across the land fell out of their chairs when this one was announced, with United needing a win at all costs and an improbable eight goal boost should their City rivals look like seeing off relegation threatened QPR, who better to help them on their way than the whistle of the supposed United sympathiser. You don’t need telling that Wayne Rooney, with 5 successful penalties in a row since January, will be ready and waiting.
Martin Atkinson – Norwich City vs Aston Villa
There’s still no escaping Atkinson’s record when it comes to red cards, as his nine this season accounts for a fifth of the reds shown by our 10 officials on show and with Scout Pick Grant Holt accounting for over 20% of the fouls conceded by Norwich (the highest ratio in the league), it’s a flare waiting to be lit. Atkinson’s penalty count, however, isn’t up to much, with just four awarded across his 26 games (0.15), only the previously highlighted Marriner is more frugal.
Chris Foy – Stoke City vs Bolton Wanderers
Despite his Championship Play-off semi final duties this week, Foy has flown a little under the radar when it comes to these articles. However, a steady return this season of four reds and six penalties in his 21 previous Premier League outings puts him firmly in the top half when it comes to penalty average (0.29 per game). Bolton meanwhile, are the form team when it comes to penalty awards with their upturn in form boosted by three spot kicks in the last three months – all safely dispatched by Scout pick substitute, Martin Petrov. Stoke on the other hand, have to go back to 2011 to find their last success from the spot.
Michael Oliver – Wigan Athletic vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
When it comes to conceding penalties in 2012, no side can match the four that have billowed the Wolves net since the turn of the year, and with a trip to a Wigan side with three straight wins at the DW Stadium – it doesn’t look promising for them. In referee Oliver things don’t improve for the midlands outfit either – the last time he took charge of one of their games, against Aston Villa in January, the young whistler awarded an early penalty duly dispatched by Darren Bent, and then sent off Karl Henry in the second half. Newly installed Shaun Maloney could be the man tasked with the delivering the final nail in Wolves’ dismal season.
Mark Halsey – Swansea City vs Liverpool
When Mark Halsey takes charge of a game, you can be assured of one thing. As the only referee across the Premier League season not to have shown a red card, it’s clear that it takes some doing to get him riled. When you consider that 14 of the Swans games have also seen them avoid sanction completely, then you’d expect some free flowing fare at the Liberty Stadium. When it comes to penalties, Halsey isn’t up to much either, his four penalties awarded in 20 games ranks him low down in the penalty average stakes, and with Liverpool in town, who’ve missed five of their last six league penalties (and 7/11 in all competitions), we’ll give this one a miss in terms of predictions.
Phil Dowd – Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham
In a refereeing world without Mike Dean, Phil Dowd would be king. Already recognised for his season with a debut in the showpiece at Wembley last weekend, Dowd has run Dean close on all counts this year: 104 yellow cards, 3 reds and 10 penalties in 27 games read as impressive stats in the Fantasy arena, and put him with the highest yellow card average of his peers (3.85 per game). His double figure penalty count will also prick the ears of Rafael van der Vaart and his Fantasy owners alike, while Spurs’ stats of only conceding a single penalty this term (to Mario Balotelli – remember him?) are sure to be tested with Danny Murphy back on an old stomping ground to take advantage.
Mike Jones – West Bromwich Albion vs Arsenal
Finally, we return to the key game if my Spurs team are to avoid a St Totteringham’s day for the first time since 1995, as West Brom look to sign off with a fitting tribute to the new England manager. However, despite the Baggies sitting alongside Newcastle as the sides to have conceded the most penalties this year (9) the spot-kick records of the two sides don’t suggest Fantasy profit from this avenue at all. Robin van Persie‘s Arsenal side (0.028) find themselves ahead of only Sunderland (0.022), Liverpool (0.021) and their opponents West Brom (0.023) when you consider the proportion of goals from the spot. Mike Jones’ 0.25 per game penalty average doesn’t look like changing that.
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