Euro 2012 – Semi Final Analysis

With a couple of days still to go until the Euro 2012 semi-finals get underway, squads are being reassembled as we analyse ways to utilise the quota of eight free transfers before Wednesday’s 7.30pm deadline. Bearing in mind we can now select up to six players per team in the McDonald’s game for the semi finals, tactical approaches will be key to success now, with differentials looking distinctly at a minimum:

Semi Final One

We’ll be able to perhaps take a punt or two on the first match, as the lineups will be announced prior to the deadline but, looking at Spain and Portugal’s team selection so far, it could well prove frustrating as both have been pretty predictable.

Spain
Vicente Del Bosque has handed only 12 players a start over the first four games – the only issue has been who starts in the middle of the front three; Cesc Fabregas or Fernando Torres, with both managing two starts apiece. Aside from their 4-0 hammering of Republic of Ireland, Spain haven’t been too impressive in terms of attacking returns – their other three games have harvested just four goals, with the 2-0 win over France helped by a converted spot-kick.

The defending champions have been the most reliable side in defence, recording clean sheets in each of their last three matches and conceding just a single goal in the tournament thus far. Investment in their backline has certainly been the most successful tactic of choice to date, with far greater value returned by Jordi Alba, in particular. Priced at 6.5, he’s the top scoring player in the McDonald’s game with a 25 point haul, while Sergio Ramos’ 22 points is the lowest of Del Bosque’s back-four, one less than Alvaro Arbeloa, who has a mere 6% ownership. If you fancy Spain to keep out Cristiano Ronaldo and co, then, going all out and snapping up their backline and goalkeeper would only set you back 36.0 for five players who have so far returned 116 points between them.

Sergio Busquets’ role in front of the defence helped him to a five point haul against France in the quarter finals, thanks to 10 recovered balls. Indeed, the 6.5 priced midfielder has earned an extra point for recovered balls in all of his appearances so far and has outscored far pricier options such as Xavi or Andres Iniesta in the McDonald’s game. Elsewhere in midfield, 8.0 priced Xabi Alonso was the chief goal threat in the victory over France – he managed all three of his side’s shots on target and has racked up 22 points, only four less than Xavi and Iniesta combined.

David Silva’s role on the right of the attacking three looks secure – the 10.6 priced forward has started all four of Spain’s games yet has just 13.6% ownership in comparison to Torres’ 23.5%, despite the latter appearing as a sub twice. A punt on Pedro could be either inspired or disastrous. The 7.3 priced forward was handed his first game time of the tournament against Les Bleus, coming off the bench for a 25 minute appearance – if Del Bosque decides to tinker and hand him an unexpected start, his 0.7% ownership hints at a strong differential pick for those willing to take a risk. Fabregas and Torres will likely fight it out for the central role again, though have returned just seven points between them in the last two wins.

Portugal
Paulo Bento has been the most conservative of any manager of the last four – he has named the same XI for all his nation’s games but a hamstring injury to Helder Postiga against Czech Republic means Hugo Almeida will be the likely starter as the lone forward. Priced at 7.4, he’s the least costly of the three forwards likely to start for Portugal, though Nelson Oliveira, at a mere 4.5, is likely to see some game time from the bench and is a decent squad filler, allowing budget to be splashed elsewhere in our squads.

Cristiano Ronaldo looks the one player likely to break the Spanish resistance. Up against Real Madrid team mate Alvaro Arbeloa on the flank, he arrives as the tournament’s form player, having grabbed three goals and hit the woodwork four times in his last couple of appearances. Priced at 11.0, though, he doesn’t come cheap but is the most popular player in the McDonald’s game with over 41% ownership – backing a Spain clean sheet and omitting Ronaldo could be a viable, if perhaps risky tactic; if he gets amongst the points, his non-owners can expect a drop down the rankings. Nani is the alternative up front but with no goals to his name and a price of 8.5, it’s a far bigger risk, bearing in mind that Ronaldo also has the advantage of penalties and free-kicks.

Gambling on Portugal’s defensive options looks a risky tactic. Spain have scored in all of their matches so far and Bento’s side have racked up just a single clean sheet, though if they can somehow keep the Spaniards out, investment in their backline would pay off big time. Pepe has accrued 20 points so far – the same number as Ronaldo – and is 6.5; he is likely to benefit from the recovered balls rule, with his side expected to be under the cosh for most of the match. Joao Pereira has proven to be a better alternative to Fabio Coentrao at full-back; while both have returned an assist apiece, the former has picked up a point for recovered balls in all of his games so far and is cheaper at 6.0 to Coentrao’s 6.5.

In midfield, the options hold limited appeal based on the displays so far. Joao Moutinho is the stand-out candidate, having provided two assists to date – he registered eight recovered balls in the Czech Republic game and will need to replicate this form if Portugal are to nullify their opponents, while Miguel Veloso has earned an extra point for recovered balls in each of his three; with a total haul of 11 points so far, his 7.0 price has been poor value.

Semi Final Two

This match is the trickiest of the two to predict by far. Just when we thought that Germany offered us Fantasy managers a reliable form of investment, Joachim Low’s attacking changes in the 4-2 win over Greece have thrown our plans into disarray. Italy, meanwhile, continue to tinker, though with the change to 4-3-1-2 harvesting back-to-back clean sheets, Cesare Prandelli will be tempted to keep to the same formation at least for Thursday evening’s showdown.

Germany
While question marks hang over the options up front, Low’s backline looks settled – his only alteration to date has been enforced, after Jerome Boateng picked up a one-match suspension for the game against Denmark. The 6.5 priced right-back has since returned to the starting XI, suggesting he’s first-choice for the position, though despite contributing an assist in the 4-2 win over Fernando Santos’s side, he has accumulated just 10 points so far – half of 8.0 priced Philipp Lahm’s total of 20.

Lahm, along with Mats Hummels and Holger Badstuber, has benefitted from the recovered balls rule in three of the four matches so far but Germany have failed to impress defensively. After nullifying Portugal’s threat in Matchday 1, they have conceded in all three games since; similarly priced to Spain’s assets at the back, they look less assured, though bearing in mind that Italy failed to find the net over 120 minutes against England, many Fantasy managers will be willing to take a punt. Comparing them with Spain, the back four and keeper come in at 35.5 and have returned 72 points between them – a substantial difference so far.

The midfield three of Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil and Bastian Schweinsteiger have started all four games and look secure. The latter is the most popular of the trio in the McDonald’s game with 25% ownership, despite being handed the most defensive role of the three. Granted, he has picked up a pair of assists so far but his tendency to sit deep has afforded Khedira the chance to forage forward and offer a greater goal threat, highlighted by his goal against Greece; Khedira, at 7.5 to Schweinsteiger’s 9.0, looks far better value. Ozil’s role in “the hole” has helped him grab three assists in the last couple of matches and while he’s relatively pricey at 10.0, looks the only guaranteed starter of Low’s attacking four. If Marco Reus can maintain his role on the right, his price of 7.3 looks real value – selected by just 0.9% of teams so far, the Dortmund man looks a real differential pick here.

Up front, it looks up in the air as to who will start. Mario Gomez was transferred in by huge numbers of Fantasy managers for the previous match and returned a single point after a brief sub appearance as Low went for Miroslav Klose instead. The latter vindicated his manager’s decision with a goal and assist in the 4-2 win, highlighting the risk involved for Fantasy managers. With Gomez priced at 11.7 and Klose 11.2, many will feel it’s a punt too far, though Klose’s mere 1% ownership highlights his worth as a differential compared to Gomez’s 40%. Elsewhere, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller will be hoping for a return to the starting XI if Low opts for a little more experience against the Italians. Andre Schurrle failed to pick up the points in his starts against Greece but priced at 7.8 in the McDonald’s game is the cheapest German forward option on offer – again, though, selecting him comes at a risk, given Low’s recent tinkering.

Italy
The Azzurri’s role as underdogs is likely to see less investment from Fantasy managers, with many expecting Germany to triumph. Low’s side have scored in all their games so far and, while Italy arrive on the back of consecutive clean sheets, it’s fair to say that neither Republic of Ireland or England offered much in terms of attacking menace. Nevertheless, a clean sheet for Prandelli’s side would be a major surprise and a punt on their defence may appeal to those willing to take a wild all-or-nothing gamble.

Certainly, there are decent mid-price assets within Italy’s backline for anyone confident in their ability to keep out Germany. Ignazio Abate comes in at 4.9 and looks nailed-on at right-back, with Christian Maggiosuspended. Federico Balzaretti and Andrea Barzagli are priced at 5.4 and 5.9 respectively but, while Leonardo Bonucci impressed against England and returned eight points, he could drop out for Giorgio Chiellini on Thursday, with the latter nearing fitness after a thigh problem.

Andrea Pirlo is the standout option amongst Prandelli’s charges – so far, the 8.1 priced midfielder has had a hand in three of their four goals and has returned a total of 23 points, almost double any Italian midfielder or attacker. Claudio Marchisio and Daniel De Rossi are the only other two midfield options to have started all four games; the former is 2.0 cheaper at 7.0 for those prepared to take a real punt. Thiago Motta is even less costly at 6.5 but, after starting all the group games, he was omitted for last night’s win.

Up front, Antonio Cassano has featured in the first XI in all four games and seems the only forward in the second semi-final nailed on to start, but the Milan man has been subbed off on each occasion. Mario Balotelli was slightly unlucky not to net against England, after firing 10 attempts over the 120 minutes and looks to have done enough to keep his place in Prandelli’s XI The Man City player is a little dearer than Cassano, at 8.5 to 8.0, but is more of a differential with less than 7% ownership. Antonio Di Natale would be the biggest gamble of the trio – with just a single start so far he is far from guaranteed much game time but, as he showed against Spain, the 8.5 priced forward doesn’t need long to find the net.