Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Newcastle and Sunderland

Our series of articles highlighting cheap-to-mid-price rotation pairings for the season ahead has already cast an eye over the potential of West Ham/Southampton, Crystal Palace/Hull and Stoke/Norwich combinations. This time out, we head north to analyse the prospects of teaming up Newcastle and Sunderland.

The Fixtures

Due to their geographical proximity, the Tyne-Wear neighbours always alternate on a home and away basis. This affords Fantasy managers a perfect rotation tactic, offering up a game in front of their own fans in all 38 of the upcoming Gameweeks of the 2013/14 campaign – the downside here is that Sunderland’s fixtures at the Stadium of Light in the first few months of the season hardly bode well for defensive returns.

Paolo Di Canio’s side entertain Arsenal, Liverpool, United, City, Chelsea and Spurs by Gameweek 15, suggesting clean sheets may be hard to come by. With Newcastle also facing Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool in the first half of next term, you’re left with 10 out of 19 decent home fixtures (FUL, WHM, FUL, HUL, NEW, NOR, WBA, SOT, NOR, STO) and while the latter part of the season hands the duo home games against only five of last term’s top six, that situation could be remedied around winter wildcard time.

Looking for alternatives, then, by selecting Newcastle with one of Swansea or Southampton, you’d have a home game to choose from in 36 of the 38 Gameweeks. Michel Vorm looks set to drop in price and could see many renew the Dutchman’s partnership with compatriot Tim Krul which proved hugely successful in 2011/12, while Saints number one Artur Boruc is expected to remain as a budget prospect after his side shipped 60 goals last time out. For those eying up three-way defensive rotation, a Newcastle, Southampton and West Brom partnership is also one to consider.

While Sunderland can similarly alternate with either Cardiff or West Ham, the Black Cats’ aforementioned opening home games look a real deterrent – from Gameweek 20 onwards, though, their Stadium of Light schedule is outstanding and is likely to afford a real momentum over the final few months.

Defence

Newcastle
There’s no doubt a spate of injuries to key players played a part in the Magpies’ fall from Fantasy favour in 2012/13. Having racked up 15 clean sheets the previous year, Alan Pardew’s side mustered a mere six last term, accruing four in front of their own fans and just two on the road. Tim Krul is expected to be ready in time from the shoulder dislocation that ruled him out of Newcastle’s final five matches and, having started at 5.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) last time, looks set to drop to 5.0.

The Newcastle first-choice backline are likely to mirror the Dutchman’s cost and while Mathieu Debuchy will be hoping to improve after arriving in January, fellow full-back Davide Santon registered a goal and four assists last term and created chances for team mates at twice the pace of the Frenchman. Santon also picked up more bonus points (five) than any other Newcastle defender and if the Magpies can keep their key players out of the treatment room, he could be the best value option, with an upturn in defensive displays anticipated.

Sunderland
The departure of Simon Mignolet may well offer Kieran Westwood the chance to nail down a regular role between the sticks, though according to reports on Friday, Sunderland are closing in on a deal for Arsenal’s Vito Mannone. Bearing in mind he failed to play a single minute last season, Westwood could well remain at 4.5 in FPL, handing us a possible bargain partnership with Krul – Mannone should also come in similarly priced if he makes the move to Wearside.

Defensively, the Black Cats are in transition right now, with pre-season scouting essential to assessing their main protagonists. Last term’s regular left-back Danny Rose has returned to parent club Tottenham, Phil Bardsley is expected to leave, while Di Canio has already acquired two new centre-halves, Valentin Roberge and Modibo Diakite to challenge the likes of John O’Shea and Carlos Cuellar for a starting berth. O’Shea looks set to begin at 5.0 again after earning 115 points last time out, though there’s the hope that one or both of the new boys will come in at 4.5 due to the uncertainty over their game time – if either nails down a regular role, they could offer a potential value option. Di Canio is also closing in on Le Havre’s highly-rated right-back Benjamin Mendy after selling Ahmed Elmohamady to Hull on Friday.

Results at the back were, in the main, positive under Di Canio. From seven matches, Sunderland produced two clean sheets and conceded one goal on three occasions – while a 2-1 defeat in his first match in charge was understandable, the 6-1 hammering at Villa highlights the inconsistency which clearly needs addressing.

Attacking Options

The Main Men
In spite of a disappointing first full season, Papiss Cisse remains the main man for Newcastle if Pardew continues with a lone striker system. The Senegal international provided just eight goals last term and a drop in price is certain – having started last term at 9.5, a slip to 8.5 at least is anticipated, though with Joe Kinnear itching to bolster the Magpies frontline, it remains to be seen whether a change in tactics or move to the flank would be on the cards for Cisse.

Hatem Ben Arfa should remain in the mid-price bracket, though a drop from his previous starting price of 7.5 is expected in light of his 2012/13 tally of 72 points. A move to 7.0 or even 6.5 seems viable, given that Ben Arfa made just 16 starts for the Magpies due to an ongoing hamstring complaint – if (a big if) he can remain injury free and is handed a role on the right of a front three, there’s no doubt he could be a real value option if Pardew’s side can regain the form of 2011/12.

Similarly,Yohan Cabaye may also be set for a slight drop after starting at 7.0 last summer and notching just 94 points in an injury-plagued campaign and, while January signing Moussa Sissoko should rise in price after producing 4.4 points per game from the role in “the hole”, there’s every chance he’ll be utilised in a deeper position next time out and may struggle for our attentions. Yoan Gouffran may be one to monitor if his classification changes from forward to midfielder. Afforded game time in “the hole” and on the flank in a 4-2-3-1 towards the end of the season, he produced two goals and six bonus points in his last five games and finished the campaign as the Magpies most impressive Fantasy performer.

For Sunderland, the ankle injury that forced Steven Fletcher out of the final eight Gameweeks is likely to be enough to ensure he remains in the mid-price bracket across the Fantasy games. The Scot registered 11 goals, four assists and 24 bonus points in 28 appearances for the Wearsiders and should come in around th 7.0 mark again – expected to be ready in time for the start of the new campaign, Fletcher’s consistency has now produced 10+ goals in each of the last three years – he’ll surely be earmarked by many in the second half of the season, in light of his side’s fixtures.

Adam Johnson and Stephane Sessegnon are likely to be priced similarly to Fletcher, with the latter possibly primed for a slight drop from last term’s initial cost of 8.0. Having been fielded on the flank in Martin O’Neill’s final few matches in charge, Sessegnon was moved to the role in “the hole” once again by Di Canio and produced double figure hauls in two of his last three appearances before being handed a three-match suspension. Certainly, the Benin international has done enough to suggest he could flourish under the new manager from a central position next time around, though with more new faces expected through the in door over the next few weeks, it remains to be seen just where he stands in next term’s pecking order, with some reports even suggesting he could be set to depart the club before the season gets underway.