Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Goalkeepers

As most of you will surely know by now, the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game is up and running for the season ahead. Having taken the time to soak up the new player prices, we begin our series of articles focussing on each position with a look at the goalkeepers:

The Budget Bracket

Once again, there are no legitimate first-team options available for 4.0 to Fantasy managers mull over this time around. The new Player List does smile kindly on the keepers, though; as many as seven number ones come in at 4.5, with Sunderland’s Vito Mannone immediately catching the eye. His average of 4.9 points per appearance was superior to any regular stopper in 2013/14 and with Mannone’s save points more than atoning for a return of 11 shut-outs in 28 matches, many may look to field him regardless of fixture.

The arrival of Costel Pantilimon places some question marks over Mannone in the meantime. Pre-season matches should tell us more but, bearing in mind the new boy is also priced at 4.5, the option of selecting both – given the likelihood of save points – could prove a viable tactic and always guarantee a starter. Alternatively, as mentioned in our rotation pairs analysis article, selecting a Black Cats stopper with Newcastle’s 4.5-priced Tim Krul affords a 9.0 home/away partnership over the entire season and would hand you 13 decent home matches (CPL, TOT, HUL, SWA, STO, LEI, EVE, QPR, WHM, SUN, HUL, EVE, BUR) until the winter wildcard is available in Gameweek 20. Looking at last term, the Tyne-Wear duo each managed six clean sheets in front of their own fans, with Sunderland serving up five on the road compared to Newcastle’s two.

Elsewhere, West Brom’s Ben Foster and Villa number one Brad Guzan also come in at 4.5 and rotate home and away over the 38 Gameweeks. Over the first 20 matches, there are 13 favourable fixtures in front of their own fans (SUN, NEW, HUL, EVE, BUR, CPL, TOT, NEW, SOT, WHM, LEIC, AVL, SUN), though home games against Arsenal, City and United between Gameweeks 5-8 may deter some initially. The Baggies new boss Alan Irvine is something of an unproven quantity in the English top-fight and many may be sceptical if they improve upon a record of seven clean sheets (four at home, three away) last term, whilst Villa’s erratic form (five of their nine shut-outs arrived on the road) suggests this could be an unpredictable partnership. Nonetheless, Guzan does look the best route into Villa’s backline – he finished 35 points clear of any defensive team-mate last season, earning save points in 18 of his 38 appearances.

The three promoted keepers are also priced at 4.5 and offer rotation options if you’re willing to take a punt on the new boys. For those eyeing up Kaspar Schmeichel, Leicester alternate home/away with Southampton for the 38 Gameweeks, though the Saints’ excellent opening schedule would keep him on the bench for the opening few fixtures. Burnley’s Tom Heaton could be partnered with Hull’s number one Allan McGregor over the 38 matches, whilst Rob Green of QPR dovetails with Palace’s Julian Speroni in all but four Gameweeks in 2014/15. Burnley and Leicester delivered 18 clean sheets apiece in the Championship last term, with the R’s just behind on 16.

The Mid-Price Bracket

Six clubs hand us a first-choice option in the 5.0 bracket. Palace’s Julian Speroni finished 21 points clear of any defensive team-mate last time around and with the Eagles delivering 12 clean sheets (seven at home, five away) in the final 28 games of 2013/14, the Argentine will surely earn plenty of suitors once again. As mentioned, Tony Pulis’ side offer an excellent home/away rotation with QPR, handing you 16 very favourable home fixtures leading up to the winter wildcard in Gameweek 20 and, at 9.5, a Speroni/Green partnership is easy on the budget.

Alternatively, Palace rotate with West Ham over the 38 Gameweeks and with Adrian priced at 5.0, pairing the London clubs is another option at the back – Big Sam’s men also earned seven home clean sheets (and seven away) and look a solid source of defensive returns once again. If Adrian Mariappa (4.5) can continue at right-back for the Eagles, though, he offers a cheaper route than Speroni into Tony Pulis’ backline.

Hull’s Allan McGregor also comes in at 5.0. The Tigers managed 10 clean sheets in the previous campaign and were more predictable than most – eight arrived in front of their own fans, with only two harvested on the road. Furthermore, just one of those shut-outs came against a team in the top half of the table, underlining just why a rotation partner is required – a double-up with Heaton for the price of 9.5 may appeal for those unwilling to pay 5.0 for Burnley’s left-back Kieran Trippier. With a trio of Hull defenders, including James Chester, available for 4.5, though, McGregor may be overlooked.

Artur Boruc has been favourably priced at 5.0 ahead of an exceptional run of fixtures. The departure of Mauricio Pochettino perhaps places question marks over their ability to replicate last term’s 15 clean sheets but with showdowns against only two of last term’s top eight in the opening 12 Gameweeks, early investment could reap reward.

Like Boruc, Stoke’s number one Asmir Begovic is priced cheaper than his club’s first-choice centre-halves. Available for 5.0, the Bosnian rotates with Swansea over the 38 Gameweeks and a look at the schedule shows they have both been handed some great opening home matches. Indeed, by alternating for every home fixture, you’d face just one of last season’s top seven in the first 14 matches run that reads (AVL, BUR, WBA, LEI, SOT, NEW, NEW, SWA, LEI, WHM, ARS, BUR, CPL, QPR). The arrival of Lukasz Fabianski places some uncertainty over Michel Vorm’s game time for the Swans, though with priced at 5.0, a partnership with Stoke would set you back 10.0.

Liverpool, United, Arsenal, Spurs and Everton all come in at the 5.5 mark. With just 10 clean sheets and 50 goals conceded in 2013/14, it’s difficult to see the value in Simon Mignolet, though elsewhere on Merseyside, Tim Howard ended last season as top scoring keeper on 160 points – just nine less than Leighton Baines – on the back of 15 clean sheets. The Toffees have Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and United in the first seven Gameweeks, though, suggesting they could be slow for defensive returns.

Considering both Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny rose to 6.0, Wojciech Szczesny’s price of 5.5 looks decent value as a route into an Arsenal defence with 17 shut-outs to their name last term. Arsene Wenger’s side shipped a mere 11 goals in front of their own fans and kept out their opponents on 11 occasions at the Emirates, though on the road, they managed just six shut-outs and managed a clean sheet against a top 10 side on just two occasions.

Mauricio Pochettino’s arrival at Tottenham potentially bodes well for Hugo Lloris. Although he’s dropped in price from last term’s initial 6.0, the Frenchman’s prospects have taken a dive due to the fact that four defensive team-mates are available for just 5.0 – if the likes of Vlad Chiriches or Danny Rose nails down a starting berth under Pochettino, it’ll be difficult to justify Lloris’ value.

For United, David de Gea will be boosted by Louis Van Gaal’s arrival. Unlike Lloris, there’s no cheaper alternative amongst his defenders and for those who reckon De Gea will improve upon last term’s 3.5 points per game under David Moyes, United’s first eight fixtures – where they play only one of last term’s top 10 – could ensure they are off to a quick start at the back.

The Premium Bracket

FPL have hedged their bets with Chelsea pair Petr Cech and Thibaut Courtois for the season ahead. The former is still recovering from shoulder surgery, whilst Courtois is expected to stay at the Bridge under Jose Mourinho this time around instead of being farmed out on loan again – it remains to be seen whether the Blues boss will alternate the duo or stick with a first-choice option but at 6.0 apiece, neither comes cheap. If one of the pair can establish themselves as the main man, though, Chelsea’s 18 clean sheets from last term underlines their potential for those who prefer to avoid cheap rotation pairs.

City’s Joe Hart comes in at 6.0 despite a slight drop in resilience in Manuel Pellegrini’s first year at the helm. The stopper comes in cheaper than Vincent Kompany and Pablo Zabaleta (6.5 apiece) and the Belgian’s propensity for picking up injuries, allied with the arrival of Bacary Sagna which is likely to threaten the Argentine’s security of starts, certainly dents the defenders’ appeal. Nonetheless, shelling out a premium price tag for a player who averaged 3.8 ppg last term (and would take up one of our three City slots) is unlikely to prove a popular tactic.