Analysing the Differentials – Defenders

It’s a long way off until the winter wildcard kicks into play but we’re never averse to planning ahead. With time to analyse the Fantasy landscape, we roll out a series of articles assessing a number of differential options who could well be worth considering all the way up to Gameweek 20 and perhaps beyond. Beginning with the defenders, then, we assess some overlooked options across the price points who could, potentially, be key to a climb up the rankings.

Cesar Azpilicueta
At 6.0, the Spaniard is the cheapest of Chelsea’s regular defenders, yet he’s owned by less than 10% of FPL managers. What’s key to Azpilicueta’s potential is that he’s clearly favoured by the BPS system – he has earned bonus points every time the league leaders have delivered a clean sheet, whereas the pricier John Terry and Gary Cahill have yet to receive a single bonus point this season. Jose Mourinho’s side have now registered back-to-back clean sheets and are clearly starting to tighten up – as we saw last year, Chelsea are capable of racking up the shut outs regardless of opponent and Azpilicueta, who is just four points off second spot in the defender rankings, could be set to prosper further.

Seamus Coleman
After seven rounds of fixtures, Everton sit just two points off the bottom of the table but one look at the forthcoming schedule certainly affords reason for optimism. Roberto Martinez’ side face just three of last season’s top eight (tot, mci, sot) in the upcoming 13 Gameweeks, with hopes high for returns at both ends of the pitch as they look to improve upon a dire record of one clean sheet to date. Coleman remains a doubt for next weekend’s home clash with Villa but is expected to return imminently and with a mere 5% ownership, the 6.9-priced right-back is definitely one to monitor. Granted, Leighton Baines remains our Toffees defender of choice but the left-back now sits in 17.8% of FPL sides, making him the fifth most popular backline option around. As we saw last year, Coleman is more than capable of bettering his fellow full-back – his total of 180 points was superior to Baines’ best ever Fantasy haul.

Pablo Zabaleta
Another of last year’s big hitters yet to fire on all cylinders, the City right-back has the fixtures to climb up the standings. Zabaleta faces only four of last term’s top eight from now until winter wildcard time, though with three of those fixtures at home (TOT, MUN, sot, EVE), the champions could easily prosper. Despite the arrival of Bacary Sagna, Zabaleta seems to be the preferred choice for Premier League matches and, after missing Gameweek 1 with World Cup fatigue, has started five of the subsequent six and served up a pair of assists in the Gameweek 6 win at Hull. Having racked up 146 points in 2013/14, he’s a proven Fantasy performer that currently sits in less than 5% of FPL sides – if City can improve upon a record of a single shut-out so far, Zabaleta may yet be worth the 6.5 outlay.

Per Mertesacker
There’s no doubt that, due to Mathieu Debuchy’s injury, Calum Chambers (4.6) is the best value route into Arsenal’s defence ahead of a kind run of fixtures which also sees them face just four of last term’s top eight (MUN, SOT, liv, sot) until the winter wildcard kicks in. The youngster’s Gameweek 8 suspension, however, underlines his penchant for picking up yellows – he’s been booked in all five of his league starts for the Gunners and could easily be on course for another ban unless he calms down. The 6.0-priced, 3%-owned Mertesacker may have made a slow start to the campaign but, as evidenced by his tallies of 135 and 157 points in the last two years, he’s a consistent Fantasy performer we can usually rely on. Mertesacker may have yet to score this season but he’s up for touches in the box and has also mirrored last term’s average for efforts in the area, strengthening his chances of points at both ends of the pitch.

Philippe Senderos
A trip to Everton brings down the curtain on a relentless schedule which has seen Villa struggle at both ends of the pitch. Following that one, though, Paul Lambert’s side have just three testing fixtures (TOT, SOT, MUN) in the subsequent 12 rounds of fixtures as they look to return to the resilient form which afforded their opponents a single goal in the first four Gameweeks. At 4.5 he’s a little more expensive that Alan Hutton but Senderos has offered far greater goal threat than any Villa defender – five shots inside the box is bettered only by five defenders this season, yet he’s owned by only 2% of FPL managers, the least popular of Lambert’s first-choice back-four.

James Tomkins
We only have to look to Gameweek 7 to appreciate the West Ham defender’s Fantasy potential. Tomkins’ second assist in the last three matches, allied with a clean sheet and maximum bonus, served up an 11-point haul in the 2-0 win over QPR to justify his selection in the Scout Picks. Third amongst defenders for touches in the box (22) and attempts inside the area (eight), his impressive goal threat remains under the radar – despite a relatively kind 5.0 price tag, he’s owned by only 0.3% of FPL managers. Big Sam’s side face just four of last year’s top eight (MCI, eve, che, ARS) in the next 13 rounds and, having chalked up their first clean sheet of the season last time out, will be hoping to return to the form that delivered 14 shout-outs in the season gone by.

Neil Taylor
At 4.6, he’s the cheapest route into a Swansea defence that have already racked up three clean sheets in the first seven – a tally bettered by no other team. Whilst the fixtures between Gameweek 10-12 will ensure many owners will be benching, Taylor still has some strong home matches (LEI, CPL, QPR, TOT, AVL) and four reasonable away trips (sto, whm, hul, qpr) to boost his points potential. He’s the only defender from Garry Monk’s side to earn any attacking returns this term, with an assist accrued against Chelsea in Gameweek 4, yet is owned by only 5% of FPL managers so far.

Alberto Moreno
Let’s face it, Liverpool’s defence have been anything but convincing this season. The Spaniard, however, still looks the man most likely to deliver – only three defenders have created more chances than Moreno’s eight, whilst his goal in Gameweek 3 at Spurs, which led to a 13-point returns, certainly showed he’s capable of producing. Owned by just 6% of FPL managers, the 5.6-priced Spaniard has a superb schedule on the horizon which may well aid his ascent up the Fantasy rankings, with just three of last year’s top eight (CHE, mun, ARS) over the next 13 Gameweeks.

Craig Dawson
With many opting for Andre Wisdom as a budget option, the Baggies centre-half remains firmly under the radar. Owned by just 2% of FPL managers, the 4.5-priced Dawson has already produced four attempts in the box – more than every West Brom defender combined – and his goal threat came to fruition as recently as Gameweek 6, when he racked up a 13-point haul at home to Burnley. The fixtures are somewhat mixed for Alan Irvine’s side, though the installation of Joleon Lescott to the back-four looks key – it’s two clean sheets in three now with the former City man on board, including a 1-0 win at Tottenham – and with some decent home matches (CPL, NEW, WHM, AVL) allied with trips to Leicester, Hull, QPR, Stoke and West Ham, Dawson may well appeal to those eyeing up a cheap rotating defender.

Younes Kaboul
The Tottenham skipper has played every minute under new manager Mauricio Pochettino and as the weeks go by, looks increasingly influential at the back. Available for just 5.0, Kaboul looks nailed-on and, crucially, has earned bonus points on two of the occasions his side have managed a clean sheet – the similarly priced Danny Rose, by comparison, has yet to collect bonus this term. Owned by only 3% of FPL managers, Kaboul will remain off Fantasy radars for the upcoming trip to City but beyond that, he has five decent home clashes (NEW, STO, EVE, CPL, BUR) twinned with trips to Villa, Hull, Swansea and Leicester to benefit from, as Pochettino looks to instill the resilience that brought Southampton 15 clean sheets under his guidance last season.