2015/16 Fixture Analysis – A Guide to Rotation

With the Premier League fixture announcement signalling the start of the 2015/16 season, we’re stepping up our preparations ahead of the new campaign.

Fantasy managers have wasted little time in dissecting the schedule to draw up the most efficient rotation options for those teams that are likely to supply us with budget-friendly options.

While many members of the community are aware of such a concept – recent posts by Portsmouth Bubblejet and The Blue of Leicester go into detail – we begin our series of articles on fixture rotation with a look at the basics involved, by delving into last season’s data for examples.

THE CONCEPT

Fixture rotation only applies to squad-based Fantasy games and is utilised best with goalkeepers and defenders. At its most basic level, the principle is simply finding a pair of cut-price players whose home and away matches dovetail perfectly, allowing us to select the home option each time and benching the other player. Our rotation policies normally have us seeking out budget pairings – mainly because most will baulk at the idea of benching an asset in or above the mid-price value bracket.

Those playing starting XI-only games such as Sky Sports or The Sun won’t need to worry about such strategies, but for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers or players of the Ultimate FPL game, fixture rotation can be a significant part of our preparation and provide one of the keys to success. Shuffling resources at the back and selecting cut-price regulars with guaranteed pitch time allows us to free up funds for heavy investment at the sharp end of our squads.

Last season, West Ham provided a good example of the benefits of a rotation pairing, with seven of their nine clean sheets coming at Upton Park. The Hammers conceded just 18 goals in front of their own fans, the sixth best home defence last term behind Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Southampton. On the road, however, it was a completely different story, conceding 29 times, making the West Ham rearguard the joint-sixth worst backline on their travels, with even relegated Hull faring better, letting in only 27 goals.

On the other hand, the performances of Swansea and West Brom’s defences went against the trend. Seven of the Swans’ 13 clean sheets came on their travels, while eight of the Baggies’ 16 shut-outs arrived on the road, highlighting their fixture-proof appeal.

Those statistics are significant in that they reinforce some of the frustration involved in rigidly stick to home and away rotation. While we endeavour to find budget options with friendly home fixtures, it is worth remembering that some sides fare better defensively away from home, particularly those who like to get men behind the ball and counter-attack.

Nonetheless, given that all but three teams conceded more goals on the road than in front of their own fans in 2014/15 (West Brom, Palace and Sunderland were the outliers), it’s easy to see why backing the home defence is the default stance. Developing from that, to consider fixture difficulty, is the way to go in order to make your rotation pairings more robust.

Home and Away Rotation

The most obvious rotation pairings are created as a result of geographical proximity and the need to spread police resourcing. Arsenal/Tottenham, Man United/Man City, Aston Villa/West Brom and Newcastle/Sunderland are examples of neighbours who rotate perfectly home and away over any given season. The other pairings are sometimes less obvious. We’ve listed these and this season’s “couples”, in the table below:

These relationships can provide the foundation for any rotation strategy, although, as we’ve mentioned, it pays to look beyond the simple concept of home and away rotation and start considering fixture difficulty to see whether even stronger rotation pairings begin to present themselves.

Start With the Stoppers

Traditionally, the goalkeeping spots have been the obvious starting point for rotation. This is compounded by the fact that FPL managers tend to overlook the option of the expensive “one-stop shop” options in goal, seeking out mid-price and budget solutions that can perhaps work in tandem.

The FPL scoring system fuels this tactic. While clean sheets are the bread and butter of goalkeepers in most Fantasy games, the FPL’s decision to award an extra point for every three saves is crucial to our thinking when assessing our preferred stoppers. Sunderland’s Costel Pantilimon, for example, earned a total of 29 extra points from saves alone and delivered at least one save point in 18 of his 28 league appearances last season.

Assured pitch time is another factor that promotes the use of rotation options in goal: barring unfortunate injuries, there is every chance of forming a rotation pairing that can see us through a long period of the season.

Three of the four players to feature in every minute of the 2013/14 season were stoppers – Brad Guzan, Simon Mignolet and John Ruddy. While only one (Burnley’s Tom Heaton) of the five players to do the same last term was a keeper, though that was largely due to injuries to the likes of Fraser Forster, Ben Foster and Kasper Schmeichel. The chances of goalkeepers being rested and rotated is significantly reduced, while the chances of a keeper being subbed off due to a tactical adjustment are slim-to-none.

Immediately, FPL managers will be considering a budget rotation pairing that could exploit the Bournemouth/Watford home and away relationship listed in our table above. Both teams should offer up 4.5 first choice options and both will surely guarantee ample save point returns to compensate for the perceived lack of clean sheets.

Move up the brackets and there are other strong couples that stand out – Swansea and Leicester will offer up keepers for a combined price of around 10.0 that will rotate home and away, while the Aston Villa/West Brom, Southampton/Norwich and the old chestnut that is Sunderland/Newcastle will also present temptations: again, pairing from those teams are likely to come in around the 10.0 mark.

While we’ve talked up the strategy of rotating keepers, it’s worth noting that there is an alternative approach that has proved fruitful in recent seasons: the option of selecting a single team and backing both first choice and reserve stoppers.

Already there is much discussion on the solution presented by Tony Pulis’ West Brom, with the Ben Foster/Boaz Myhill option a clear stand out route. A recent community article by Kompany Man outlined the appeal of this particular strategy. Southampton’s roster and pricing, in the light of Frazer Forster’s long-term injury, will also be of interest in this respect.

THE CASE FOR THE DEFENCE

In any given season, there will always be cut-price defenders who perform way beyond their initial valuation. Swansea’s Neil Taylor started with a 4.5 price tag last season due to the fact Ben Davies had established himself as the Swans’ first-choice left-back during 2013/14. Davies’ subsequent move to Tottenham on July 23 last year – significantly after the launch of the FPL game – enabled Taylor to find a place in Garry Monk’s starting XI and become a strong Fantasy asset. The Welsh international served up three assists, 13 clean sheets and four bonus points in 34 appearances, collecting 109 points and finishing the season valued at 4.8 in FPL.

Leicester’s Wes Morgan was another to bely his 4.5 price tag, particularly during the second half of last season. The centre-half scored twice, provided two assists, registered 10 shut-outs and collected eight bonus points, accruing a total of 112 points. He ended the campaign ranked fifth among defenders for value, behind only John Terry, Joleon Lescott, Kieran Trippier and Phil Jagielka.

Before deciding on goalkeeper pairings, it is vital to also consider what’s on offer from their respective defences. While you may decide that budget and mid-price keepers is the way to go, there may be defensive options in those defences that have stronger appeal, offering a semblance of attacking threat for a similar price point.

For example, although Kasper Schmeichel will be sought after following Leicester’s incredible end to the campaign, new left wing-back Christian Fuchs looks one to monitor – the Austria captain scored eight goals and bagged 30 assists in 136 matches during his time with Schalke and could be handed a wing-back berth on the left of a 3-4-1-2 set-up.

In many ways, it’s best to settle on your defensive selections first: find those who can fit a rotation strategy who may also offer up the potential of attacking returns. At that point, revisit the goalkeeping spots and scan the coverage options that remain.

Two, Three and Four-Way Rotation

While our 15-man FPL squads comprise of five defenders, the vast majority of Fantasy managers favour a three-man backline. Some prefer to plan a little more elaborately – utilising a variety of approaches including two, three and even four-way rotation in accordance with each team’s schedule.

Initially, though, selecting the correct defensive options beyond a two-man rotation plan carries a degree of risk as Premier League squads settle down and first-choice XI remain in flux.

Planning in Gameweek one and implementing a strategy that’s designed to be in place beyond Christmas can prove a futile exercise. A two-way rotation with a pair of certain first choice starters may have some legs, as soon as you build in three or even four options into that rotation, you’re increasing the chance that this scheme will break down. Even without injuries and suspensions, new budget options may emerge that cause you to go back to the drawing board out of choice.

For example, the 4.5-priced Maya Yoshida started Southampton’s first three matches last season, but following the addition of Toby Alderweireld at the end of the transfer window, the Japanese international would feature in the first XI in just one of the Saints’ subsequent nine matches.

Whether it’s a change of manager, a late move in the transfer window, an unfortunate injury to a first-team rival or a shift in the pecking order, all our best-laid plans can be quickly undone – there are nearly always one or two budget defensive options that take us by surprise and emerge as favourites to disrupt our starting squads.

Initially, it’s often best to restrict rotation to pairs of players, lessening the chances that the tactic will breakdown. It’s worth considering planning for up to 12 Gameweeks, ensuring that you give yourself room for flexibility and perhaps planning for how your pairing can be broken up and improved after a given point.

ATTACKING ROTATION

Typically, midfield or forward rotation is far trickier to achieve and less fruitful when it comes to balancing the books. The player list rarely affords us the option of a genuine Fantasy midfield force under 5.0 in FPL – although last season did throw up some success stories in the budget price range, with Burnley’s George Boyd, valued at 4.5 initially, garnering 110 points, while the likes of Ki Sung-yeung, Jack Colback and Steven N’Zonzi, who all started out at 5.0, comfortably broke the 100-point barrier.

For those favouring a 3-5-2 over a 3-4-3 formation, alternating two midfielders and a cheap third striker – picking two of the trio from one week to the next – could be an option to explore. Predicting attacking returns can prove far more frustrating and makes the idea of benching these assets a riskier tactic, though.

During 2013/14, Cardiff’s Frazier Campbell was the only forward with a starting price of 5.5 or less to manage more than 100 points. Last season, however, four sub-6.0 strikers (Harry Kane, Saido Berahino, Leonardo Ulloa and Jamie Vardy) managed that feat, highlighting the lack of certainty that comes with benching a forward. Kane’s 18-point haul against Chelsea on New Year’s Day – his highest of the season – was a perfect example. Many owners were burned after opting to keep the Spurs strike on the bench due to the Blues’ perceived resilience.

When you consider that 14 sub-6.0 defenders produced 100+ points last season, there is less margin for error when relying on cheap attackers. At times, rotating a third striker with a fifth midfielder can be a thankless task but, even so, if you can get attacking rotation working for you, the funds liberated by two or three effective budget options can make the difference when it comes to heavy-hitter selections.

USING THE SEASON TICKER

As we’ve mentioned, to construct truly robust rotation pairings, we must strive to look beyond simple home and away rotation and delve into the midsts of fixture difficulty. Thankfully, we present you with a useful tool to aid the process.

Hot on the heels of the fixture announcement, our Season Ticker has been updated accordingly. The first six fixtures for all clubs are listed in the sidebar, though members can expand or restrict this by using the plus or minus buttons at the top right of the ticker. They can also view this in accordance with each team’s overall potential as well as by clean sheet and attacking prospects, sorting by difficulty as they go along.

Another of the useful features offered by the members version is the ability to drag and drop rows, moving teams up and down the ticker to help identify rotation pairings – already, there are some noticeable couples over the first few matches that appear to offer potential.

Taking a look at the schedules, Norwich’s first six home matches are pretty favourable, while Bournemouth only face one of last season’s top six in their first seven encounters at Goldsands Stadium. Sunderland, Aston Villa and Watford have three strong home matches in the first four fixtures in front of their own fans, making finding rotation partners for these sides a priority.

An Aston Villa and Watford partnership would result in nine eye-catching home fixtures in the first 11 (WBA, SOU, SUN, SWA, WBA, CPL, STK, SWA, WHU), while Norwich and Bournemouth give us seven home matches in the opening 10 Gameweeks (AVL, STK, LEI, BOU, SUN, WAT, WBA).

These are just a two brief examples – over the next few weeks we’re going to present our guides to some of the strongest rotation pairings on offer, discussing the potential assets available when considering the keeper slots, defensive set-up and options in attacking areas.