Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Leicester and Swansea

After starting our series of rotation articles with a look at the basic principles involved, we now turn our attentions to the most favourable pairings for the season ahead. To get this underway, we take a look at what’s on offer with Leicester and Swansea.

THE FIXTURES

With Swansea keeping 13 clean sheets last season and Leicester ending the last campaign with five shut-outs in their final seven matches, this pairing looks particularly enticing. Over the first 20 Gameweeks, there are only two troublesome weekends, with Leicester at home to Man United in Gameweek 14, while Swansea travel to Liverpool. Then in Gameweek 16, the Foxes host the champions Chelsea, with Swansea facing Manchester City on their travels.

Those are the only two instances where the Swansea/Leicester rotation will definitely face one of last season’s top five over that period, however, with the remaining run handing us 12 very kind-looking home encounters (SUN, NEW, sun, bou, AVL, EVE, sot, nor, STO, CPL, wba, WAT, BOU, LEI, WHM, WBA, cpl, BOU) until we’re given the chance to freshen up our squads with the winter Wildcard.

It’s worth remembering, though, that Garry Monk’s side kept seven of their 13 clean sheets on the road last season, which strengthens the theory that we should play to the fixture instead of remaining strictly loyal to the home/away rotation. Furthermore, Leicester’s surprise sacking of Nigel Pearson also generates uncertainty over their line-up and resilience for the season ahead.

While we won’t be focussing too much on the second half of the campaign with winter Wildcards available, it’s worth pointing out that the Leicester and Swansea pairing is also particularly useful between Gameweeks 20 and 31 (SUN, WAT, STO, wba, CPL, SOT, NOR, WBA, NOR, NEW, AVL). Indeed, once again there would be just two occasions (Gameweeks 36 and 38) where you’d have to face one of last year’s top five in the second half of the season.

Alternatively, Norwich and West Ham offer a good rotation with Swansea for 34 Gameweeks, with the Hammers’ favourable home fixtures against West Brom and Stoke in Gameweeks 14 and 16 very helpful, considering the tricky clashes offered up by the Leicester/Swansea combination. Unfortunately, the Foxes offer a good rotation with Chelsea and Southampton for 34 Gameweeks but, aside from the Saints keeper spot in light of Fraser Forster’s injury, they may well be too pricey to rotate.

DEFENCE

Leicester
The Foxes backline should throw up plenty of Fantasy options, starting in goal with Kasper Schmeichel. The Danish international missed a large chunk of last season with a broken foot, but still chalked up 83 points in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and looks worthy of strong consideration for the new season, with save points looking guaranteed.

At the back, skipper Wes Morgan ended the previous campaign in sensational form, averaging six points per appearance over the Foxes final 11 matches, thanks to two goals, a pair of assists and six clean sheets. Morgan and Robert Huth, who has now joined Leicester on a permanent deal, led all defenders for goal attempts from inside the box over the final six Gameweeks, with seven apiece.

Jeffrey Schlupp was also a profitable budget defender for many Fantasy managers last season thanks to his out-of-position potential down the left flank, although his place looks under serious threat from new arrival Christian Fuchs. The Austria captain arrives on the back of eight goals and 30 assists in 136 outings for Schalke and, like Schlupp, is versatile enough to play at left-back or as a wing-back, though there’s real uncertainty as to whether the new manager will look to replicate Pearson’s 3-4-1-2 set-up. Regarded as a set-piece specialist, it’s possible that Fuchs could come in at 5.0 in FPL, though there’d be no real surprise if he, along with the rest of the Foxes defence, started at 4.5, given that they had the fourth-worst defence in 2014/15.

Swansea
The highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL last season with 151 points, Lukasz Fabianski will no doubt be on Fantasy managers’ radars once more. Again, save points look secure here – Fabianski produced more than any stopper in the previous campaign and resultantly finished 33 points clear of any defensive team-mate. There’s an argument to suggest he could come in at 5.5, then, though if he remains at 5.0, the Pole is bound to attract investors.

Ashley Williams was the highest scoring Swans defender in FPL last term with 118 points. The Wales international’s tally of 15 bonus points in 2014/15 was more than John Terry (14), for example, and bettered by only six other defenders. With new addition Franck Tabanou possibly set to share playing time with Neil Taylor on the left of the back four, Federico Fernandez and right-back Kyle Naughton may be stronger targets initially.

Naughton was a terrific budget option following his January move from Tottenham before picking up an ankle injury at the beginning of April. Although Fernandez didn’t register any attacking returns in his 28 appearances, the Argentina international did manage 13 goal attempts from inside the box, more than Jan Vertonghen and Laurent Koscielny, while he also racked up 11 bonus points. As our recent Scout Report indicates, though, Tabanou is far more attack-minded than Taylor and could be the best bet in the long run, providing he can nail down a regular role.

With the Swansea defence likely to come in at 5.0, this combination with Leicester should offer you a rotation option for 9.5 to 10.0.

ATTACKING OPTIONS

Leicester
Midfielders Riyad Mahrez and Marc Albrighton had their moments last term, particularly during the final months of the season, but consistency eluded the pair for the majority of the campaign. Frustratingly, having cemented their starting roles in the final few fixtures under Pearson, they may have to prove themselves all over again when the new manager is appointed and it may take the entirety of the pre-season schedule before we have a clearer picture.

Albrighton registered three double-digit hauls playing as a wing-back over the final five Gameweeks and his delivery from the right proved a key factor in the Foxes survival. Mahrez ended last season in a central support berth behind a front two but there’s a fear he may suffer from a change in tactical approach – nonetheless, if Leicester can maintain the momentum gained from their great escape, this duo may offer value and are likely to come in at a maximum 5.5, with 5.0 perhaps more likely.

In attack, Leonardo Ulloa and Jamie Vardy offered great value last season, starting out at 5.5 and 5.0 respectively in FPL, and both should come in at 6.0 or under again. Ulloa racked up 130 points, while Vardy notched five goals and 12 assists over the campaign. It remains to be seen where new signing Shinji Okazaki will fit in, but given the Japanese international scored 12 goals for Mainz in the Bundesliga last season, he will be one to watch. Reports over the last few days linking Leicester with a move for Charlie Austin merely muddies the waters further and could deter some from initially investing in the Foxes attack.

Swansea
There are options aplenty in the Swans midfield, although the main men will be a little too pricey in terms of budget rotation targets. Gylfi Sigurdsson and new signing Andre Ayew, who is likely to be classified as a midfielder, should come in at around 7.0 to 7.5 in FPL. As we saw in Gameweek 1 last season, where Sigurdsson produced 13 points at Old Trafford, the Icelandic international is capable of delivering the goods regardless of fixture.

Our attentions could turn to Ki Sung-yeung or Jonjo Shelvey as cheaper alternatives. Ki scored eight goals last season and particularly thrived when Monk changed to a 4-1-2-1-2 formation during the final third of last season. Shelvey managed three goals and six assists, although discipline was an issue, picking up eight yellow cards and one red. One concern for Fantasy managers is the possible rotation in the Swans midfield, with wide players Jefferson Montero, Wayne Routledge and Nathan Dyer also vying for spots, particularly if Monk reverts to his usual 4-2-3-1 system. Jack Cork seems to have emerged as the favoured defensive midfielder, so Ki and Shelvey could end up battling for a place in the starting XI.

Monk’s rotation should be less of an issue up front, though. Bafetimbi Gomis looks likely to remain the first-choice, with new boy Eder offering a back-up option, though he may even partner Gomis up top should the Swans boss revert to a two-man frontline on occasion. Given that Gomis should set us back around 7.0 to 7.5 in FPL, though, he’s certainly a little too pricey to utilise as a rotation option for Fantasy managers. Having scored against the likes of Arsenal, United and City last term, the Frenchman – who netted five times in his final six appearances of 2014/15 – hinted at his fixture-proof potential after the departure of Wilfried Bony and may well prove a value option for our three-man frontlines.