Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 27 – The Strong

We now cast our attentions to the upcoming fixture list, assessing those sides with the strongest schedules over the next four to six Gameweeks. With domestic cup competitions forcing a handful of postponements, we’ve updated our Season Ticker with the appropriate blanks as we look to navigate a tricky upcoming period.

Leicester

The Foxes have scored 48 goals so far this season, more than any other side, and with both Norwich (eight) and Newcastle (10) featuring among the top five teams for big chances conceded over the last four Gameweeks, those two fixtures in particular look very favourable. Those two clubs have also conceded 12 and 10 goals respectively over the same period, while Crystal Palace, Leicester’s opponents in Gameweek 31, are not far behind with eight. The trip to Selhurst Park offers another reasonable match-up, then, while Watford and West Brom both rank in the top four for shots conceded from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks. Only the clash against Southampton looks difficult in the next six, with Saints having kept six consecutive clean sheets since the return of goalkeeper Fraser Forster. Both Riyad Mahrez (7.2) and Jamie Vardy (7.5) should continue to occupy places in our 15-man squads, then, with their current ownerships standing at 66% and 47.2% in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Claudio Ranieri’s men have kept five clean sheets in their last eight matches, and the fixtures against Watford and West Brom perhaps provide the best opportunities to rack up further shut-outs, given they both feature in the bottom four for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks. Newcastle and Southampton have only scored three goals apiece over the last four Gameweeks, with the Magpies only netting twice in their last five away matches. Those clashes also look reasonably favourable, then, while Norwich have also failed to score in recent road trips at lowly Bournemouth and Aston Villa. It certainly looks worth having a Foxes defender for our third Leicester spot then, with Christian Fuchs (4.8) and Robert Huth (4.6) the stand-out options.

Stoke

After conceding six goals in their last match against Liverpool, the visit of Remi Garde’s side to the Britannia on Saturday looks the ideal fixture for the Potters to build on their 3-1 win at Bournemouth. As already mentioned, a match against Newcastle also looks very favourable given the Magpies’ struggles at the back, while Swansea have allowed the fifth-highest number of shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks, with 40. The other three matches (che, SOT, wat) are more difficult, though, with Chelsea conceding just twice in four, allowing just one big chance in the process. The problem in backing Stoke’s frontline is that Mark Hughes has been rotating his attacking options of late, so while Marko Arnautovic (6.4) looks the strongest option given he’s expected to have recovered from the illness that ruled him out against Bournemouth. The likes of Xherdan Shaqiri (6.4) and Jon Walters (5.6) could also shine, particularly over the next two Gameweeks.

The home matches against Villa and Swansea look to offer the best hope of defensive returns over the coming period, with both clubs managing to create just one big chance over the last four Gameweeks. Neither Newcastle, Watford or Southampton have averaged more than a goal a match over the same period, with all three ranked among the bottom seven for total goal attempts over the last four Gameweeks. Only the trip to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 29 looks difficult, then, with the Blues scoring 10 goals in their last two home matches in all competitions. Owners of Jack Butland (5.2) will be happy to hold, although any further investment in the Stoke backline will likely be dependent on whether Ryan Shawcross (4.8) recovers from a back injury in time to face Villa on Saturday, given they’ve conceded seven goals in three matches in his absence.

Southampton

It’s the Saints backline that has been to the fore of late and the matches against Bournemouth, Sunderland and Stoke in the next four should offer good opportunities to pick up further clean sheets. Sunderland are the highest scorers of the three over the last four Gameweeks, with just five goals, while none of the teams have managed to create more than five big chances over the same period. Southampton’s other three opponents have all been among the goals of late, though, although none make it into the top five for shots from inside the box over the last four Gameweeks. Investment in Fraser Forster (5.0) and Virgil van Dijk (5.4) could continue to be rewarded, particularly after Saturday’s tricky clash against Chelsea. Matt Targett (3.9) did earn a recall against Swansea last time out, but his place in the starting XI doesn’t quite yet look guaranteed.

No side has conceded more big chances than Stoke (14) over the last four, although that fixture may not be so favourable come Gameweek 30 should the Potters’ injury list have eased by then. After that, the fixtures against Bournemouth and Sunderland look the most favourable, although both teams aren’t perhaps as poor at the back as you might expect, allowing just 23 and 29 shots from inside the box respectively over the last four Gameweeks. The clashes against Chelsea and Leicester will be pretty tough, although the Foxes have surprisingly allowed the most shots from inside the box (44) over the last four Gameweeks. Liverpool have conceded eight goals in their last four matches, but the Reds have only allowed four big chances and offer a reasonably difficult match-up. With goals a problem for Ronald Koeman’s side, having scored just three in their last four matches, investment in the Saints attack may be limited, with rotation also a concern among the forwards.

Also Consider

Tottenham
Spurs face three favourable matches (SWA, avl, BOU) in their next six, with goals looking a distinct possibility against all of those sides. The highly owned Dele Alli (6.0) and Harry Kane (10.1) should continue to be popular FPL picks, then, while Christian Eriksen (8.6) has also staked his claim for a place in our 15-man squads having scored three goals and registered three assists in his last five appearances. Tougher matches against West Ham, Arsenal and Liverpool may limit the chances of significant investment in the Danish midfielder, though.

Swansea and Bournemouth have scored only four times in as many matches, so defensive points could be a real possibility in those two home fixtures, while Villa have scored just twice over the same period, and registered just 16 shots from inside the box. Although the other three fixtures look a little more difficult, the 42% owning Toby Alderweireld (6.3) will be happy to hold for now, given the lack of blanks.

Bournemouth
The Cherries face three reasonably favourable match-ups over the next four Gameweeks (wat, new, SWA), with the latter two looking particularly strong from an attacking point of view. Benik Afobe (6.1) looks an option for our three-man frontlines in the short-term, then, with tough clashes against Tottenham and Man City to follow.

Likewise, those three favourable fixtures mean Bournemouth defenders should offer a realistic hope of some defensive returns over the coming weeks. Charlie Daniels (4.7) also offers an attacking threat, although it remains to be seen whether he will keep spot-kick duties following his miss against Everton on Saturday.

Swansea
While the Welsh side face two difficult matches (tot, ars) in the short-term, their schedule thereafter (NOR, bou, AVL, sto) looks very favourable. The in-form Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.1) could see his 4% ownership in FPL continue to rise as we enter March, then, while Andre Ayew (6.8) and Alberto Paloschi (5.9) could also emerge as viable options.

The Swans have only conceded 10 goals in as many matches, and coming up against some of the weaker attacks in the top flight, Ashley Williams (4.8) looks a strong option for our five-man backlines once the two fixtures against the north London sides are out of the way.

Man City
City’s FA cup exit now means they face a very favourable trip to Norwich in Gameweek 30, while the Citizens also have kind match-ups against Aston Villa and Bournemouth in the next six. That could mean faith is kept in Sergio Aguero (13.6) despite the Gameweek 27 blank, along with tough matches against Liverpool and Man United.

The return to fitness of Vincent Kompany (6.1) may help restore some confidence in the City rearguard, but with the upcoming blank and a trip to Anfield, investment in the backline will be on hold for the time being. Fantasy managers will be handed the chance to assess the influence of the returning Belgian against Dynamo Kiev and the Reds over the next week or so before making a judgement.