Rotation Pairs – Bournemouth & Watford

Having started our series of budget rotation articles with a look at what’s on offer from Burnley and West Brom and Hull and Middlesbrough, we now focus on the merits of a Bournemouth and Watford pairing that alternates home/away over all 38 Gameweeks of the upcoming campaign.

The Fixtures

Both sides survived the step up from the Championship last season, with the Hornets’ defence proving far more impressive.

Watford racked up eight clean sheets at home, on a par with Tottenham and bettered only by United, Arsenal and Leicester in 2015/16.

Their defence was breached just 19 times at Vicarage Road, which was the fifth-most resilient home record, though on their travels, it was a different matter altogether – Watford kept just three away shut-outs and shipped 31 goals by comparison.

The departure of Quique Sanchez Flores will force a re-assessment of their main men, though, as the Hornets become used to the tactics of new manager Walter Mazzarri.

Bournemouth, it’s fair to say, struggled at the back in their first year in the top-flight. Eddie Howe’s men managed just seven clean sheets all season – four at home and three away – and ultimately conceded 67 goals in 2015/16, a tally superior only to relegated Villa. If they are to be seriously considered as a potential rotation option, the Dean Court club will need to step up their level of resilience.

Nonetheless, the duo have potential as a rotation option. By selecting the side with the “easier” fixture, you’d face just four of last year’s top eight all the way up to Gameweek 20, when the second wildcard of the season will be available.

The fact that this occurs three times in the first five fixtures (including two home encounters with United and a visit from Chelsea) may deter many from initially eyeing up this combination but, aside from a home match against Leicester in Gameweek 16, the schedule still looks promising in spite of the fact that only seven of the remaining 16 matches (cpl, WBA, bur, BOU, HUL, swa, HUL, SUN, sto, STO, wba, bur, sun, CPL, swa, sto) would be at home.

Indeed, this combination looks like one to bear in mind for the second half of the season. From Gameweek 21 onwards, the more favourable fixture is considered at home in 16 of the 18 cases (MID, WAT, CPL, BUR, MCI, wba, SOT, WHM, SWA, SUN, WBA, CHE, SWA, MID, sun, STO, BUR, MCI).

If you’re looking to research further on rotation pairs, as mentioned in a previous article, we’ve introduced a new feature for members this season to help analyse potential fixture pairings via the Season Ticker. By selecting any team and hitting “sort by rotation”, the ticker now ranks those teams most appropriate for rotation with the highlighted team over the Gameweek range you choose to display. You can apply this using both the attacking and defence filters to analyse rotation pairings at both ends of the pitch.

The Defence

Watford
Heurelho Gomes looks nailed-on between the sticks. The Brazilian made more saves than any keeper in the top-flight, including a trio of penalty stops, and may well be in line for a slight price rise up to 5.0 this term.

Our assessment of Watford’s defenders may ultimately be determined by Mazzarri’s tactical approach. Should the Italian operate with a 3-5-2 formation, the likes of Jose Holebas and Allan Nyom could be utilised as wing-backs, which should benefit their prospects of attacking returns.

Holebas, in particular, could be one to watch – his frequency of both shots and key passes was far quicker than Nyom’s last term and the Greek international could have the chance to prove himself, with former loanee Nathan Ake no longer at the club.

Elsewhere in defence, Flores’ chopping and changing meant that Craig Cathcart was the only Watford defender to start more than 30 league matches in 2015/16 and therefore led the way overall for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions.

Both Miguel Britos and Sebastian Prodl will also be looking to resurrect their careers under Mazzarri though the arrival of Christian Kabasele looks ominous for their prospects unless Watford move to three at the back. The new boy seems poised to become a regular in the upcoming campaign and carries a much-need goal threat from the back that may well see him leap onto our radars – he netted four times for Genk in the Belgian top-flight last term and his aerial menace is clearly worth monitoring.

Bournemouth
Whereas Gomes led the way for saves between the posts, Artur Boruc sat just twelfth in the pecking order. The Pole missed six matches through injury and remains Eddie Howe’s number one for the season ahead – although he made a couple of spot-kick stops, he looks a far less enticing option than the likes of Gomes, Vito Mannone and Tom Heaton for save point potential.

Howe’s tendency to name a settled back-four whenever possible lessens the likelihood of rotation in the Bournemouth defence. The versatile Simon Francis started all 38 matches last year, with Charlie Daniels (37 starts) and Steve Cook (36 starts) not far behind and all three are expected to retain their roles next time out.

Howe’s use of Francis (who earned four assists last year) could influence how we assess the best route into the Cherries’ backline. Having started last season at right-back, his appeal was diminished by a shift to centre-half, though the return from injury of Tommy Elphick late in the campaign allowed Francis to revert back to the flank. Elphick’s summer departure to Villa has been offset by the loan arrival of Nathan Ake, who is versatile enough to be stationed at centre-half, allowing Francis to take up the right-back berth again. Ake could also be fielded at left-back or central midfield and may also be one to keep an eye on.

Daniels, meanwhile, arrived on our radars midway through last season and went on to serve up three goals and five assists. Callum Wilson’s recovery from injury will likely deny him spot-kick duties, though, which is something to consider bearing in mind that two of his strikes were penalties in 2015/16.

Cook could prove a real under the radar option. Second only to Virgil van Dijk for successful headers last season, he found the net on four occasions and also finished runner-up for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) amongst all Premier League defenders – if Howe’s side can step up their resilience, then, Cook could emerge as their key defensive asset.

In terms of FPL prices for the year ahead, Watford’s total of 11 clean sheets – bettered by just six other sides and on a par with Liverpool, West Brom and West Ham – could potentially see their backline regulars slightly rise to 5.0. The likes of Cook and possibly Daniels could also be subject to a price hike in line with their attacking output, though you should still be able to snap up a budget combination at 9.0 or 9.5.

The Attack

Watford
As the only two players to net more than twice for the Hornets last term, Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney are the standout candidates in the final third.

After scoring 14 times in the first 19 Gameweeks, Ighalo netted just twice in the second half of the season, whereas Deeney seemed to settle more as the campaign unfolded and ended with 13 goals to his name. Both will be set for a price hike to around the 7.5 mark in 2016/17, with Deeney’s spot-kick duties perhaps swaying the interest in his direction.

New signings Isaac Success and Jerome Sinclair will be tasked with bringing more goal threat to a side that tucked away just 9% of their chances last season – the fourth-lowest conversion rate in the top-flight.

The latter is unproven at this level, whilst Success arrives on the back of six goals for Grenada last year and is expected to be stationed out wide if Watford opt for a 4-2-3-1 set-up. If listed as a forward, though, his appeal looks limited, whilst the first five fixtures (sot, CHE, ARS, whm, MUN) is likely to deter most from eyeing up the Hornets attack at the outset.

Bournemouth
Reports on Thursday indicate that Howe has had a bid accepted for Jordon Ibe, which certainly underlines his willingness to compensate for the loss of Matt Ritchie to Newcastle, given that the Scot sat first for attempts on goal and second for key passes last year.

Despite a lack of dead-ball duties, Ibe bettered Ritchie for minutes per key pass (63.3 to 74.5), though was slightly slower (43.7 minutes to 40.6) when it came to frequency of attempts on goal.

Ibe would be favourite to be stationed on the right, with Max Gradel expected to line up on the opposite flank. The Ivorian arrived at Dean Court on the back of 17 strikes for Saint Etienne but his campaign was disrupted by a serious knee injury last time out and limited him to just a single strike. On the upside, he should be no more than 6.0 and is one to monitor in the mid-price bracket.

The recent acquisition of Lewis Cook from Leeds adds to Howe’s options in midfield, though a goal and two assists over 43 appearances in the Championship last season is far from persuasive.

In terms of frequency of shots and key passes, Junior Stanislas was quicker than any Cherries attacker last year, though having started just 17 times last term – mainly as a result of Gradel’s absence – he may struggle to find a place in Howe’s XI.

Like Gradel, Callum Wilson was also stuck on the sidelines for much of last season. After scoring five times in six matches, the frontman succumbed to a cruciate ligament injury that kept him out of contention until April. With a full pre-season behind him, the former Coventry man will be looking to prove himself again and, with spot-kick duties in hand, looks one of the front-runners for the budget forward slot.

Josh King and Benik Afobe are likely to battle it out for a starting berth, depending on whether Howe opts for a 4-4-1-1 or 4-4-2. King, in particular, could be handy option if classified as a midfielder again, though, like Stanislas, he may have to rely on injuries to others to nail down a regular role in Howe’s XI.