Moving Target – Marko Arnautovic

Having strengthened at the back with the arrivals of Joe Hart and Pablo Zabaleta, West Ham United moved to increase their attacking options with the club-record signing of Stoke City midfielder Marko Arnautovic for an undisclosed fee, which could rise to £25 million.

The 28-year-old Austrian international has signed a five-year contract with the Hammers, and West Ham manager Slaven Bilic believes the versatile attacker can be a huge success at the London Stadium:

“It’s a big signing – he is a massive player who knows the league, which is very important. He is in his best age, he is very motivated and I know him very well. He is a top player and he can play all across the front line, so he is a great signing for the Club.”

The History

Arnautovic began his youth career in his native Austria before joining Dutch side FC Twente at the age of 17 in 2006.

He made his professional debut as a substitute against PSV Eindhoven in April 2007 and made further strides the following season, making 14 league appearances, predominantly off the bench, and recording two assists.

The 2008/09 campaign saw Arnautovic establish himself in the Eredivisie, recording 12 goals and six assists from 28 league outings.

Those impressive performances led to the midfielder joining Inter Milan on loan for the 2009/10 season. But he only managed to make three league appearances and, in the summer of 2010, signed for German outfit Werder Bremen.

Arnautovic spent three seasons in Germany and enjoyed a reasonably successful spell, tallying 16 goals and 13 assists in 84 appearances in all competitions.

He signed for Stoke in September 2013 and enjoyed a strong first season in which he produced four goals and 10 assists in 30 matches.

His best campaign came in 2015/16, when he managed 11 goals and six assists, though last season’s return of just six goals and seven assists was slightly disappointing.

Arnautovic represented Austria at U18, U19 and U21 levels before making his senior debut against the Faroe Islands in October 2008.

He has made 65 appearances for his country, registering 15 goals and 13 assists.

The Prospects

West Ham scored just 47 goals last season – down from 65 in 2016/17 – so strengthening in attack was always going to be a key priority for Bilic this summer.

The departure of Dimitri Payet in January left the Hammers short of both goals and creativity from midfield, although Manuel Lanzini certainly stepped up to the plate, finishing the season with eight goals and three assists.

However, Robert Snodgrass has fallen flat since his arrival from Hull City, so the addition of Arnautovic, along with the imminent capture of striker Javier Hernandez, now seeks to improve the potency of the West Ham attack.

Arnautovic is likely to start on the left wing, in perhaps a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation, although Bilic did use several different systems last season and could also start with three at the back.

When fit, Michail Antonio looks the favourite to start on the right, with Lanzini either deployed in the No 10 role, or as the most advanced player in a three-man midfield.

Andy Carroll and Andre Ayew provide other attacking alternatives, with Snodgrass, Sofiane Feghouli, Diafra Sakho and Ashley Fletcher set to play back-up roles.

Standing at 6ft 3in, Arnautovic is surprisingly tall for a wide player, but his combination of skill and strength make him very difficult to shackle.

He possesses great vision and the ability to pick a pass, while his shooting is a real threat from range, though can be erratic.

Last season, Arnautovic averaged a shot every 45.42 minutes, which was inferior to Antonio (31.69), Lanzini (39.36) and Andre Ayew (42.41), the other leading mid-price options from the Hammers’ midfield.

However, that statistic only tells part of the story; we need to delve deeper to understand Arnautovic as a goal threat.

Incredibly, he was presented with 15 big chances – or gilt edged opportunities – in 2016/17. That ranked fifth for midfielders overall and was only one less than both Chelsea’s Eden Hazard and Bournemouth’s Josh King.

But while King converted 12 and Hazard eight of their opportunities, Arnautovic scored with just three of his big chances.

What’s even more significant is that, in 2015/16, Arnautovic ranked third for big chances among midfielders with 18 – just one less than Alexis Sanchez and Sadio Mane.

That season, he successfully converted nine – a major factor behind his best ever Fantasy returns.

To rank so highly for big chances in two successive seasons in a Stoke City side hardly renowned for attacking flair illustrates the potential on offer here.

Arnautovic’s average penalty area touches per match increased from 3.9 in 2015/16 to 4.8 last season. In contrast, Lanzini recorded 1.9 touches in the box per appearance.

This is turn led to Arnautovic firing 42 of his 60 (70%) shots from inside the penalty area. Again, this puts Lanzini in the shade – the Argentine produced just 21 of his 69 attempts from inside the box (30.4%).

That statistic even betters Antonio, with the nine-goal winger producing 53 of 77 shots from inside the area (68.8%).

Clearly, Arnautovic is a player who will get into prime goal scoring positions. He just needs to improve his conversion rate. Notably, this dropped from 15.7 in 2015/16, to just 10% last season.

In terms of creativity, Lanzini led the way among the quartet, registering a key pass every 47.65 minutes, although Arnautovic wasn’t too far behind on 54.50. Antonio (78.71) and Ayew (96.13) failed to challenge Lanzini for that metric, despite the former’s eight assists.

Arnautovic was involved in 47% of Stoke’s goals when on the pitch in 2015/16 and even 33% in a disappointing 2016/17. That would indicate that he’s unlikely to be put in the corner by the likes of Lanzini or Antonio.

However, there are notable caveats.

His discipline was a concern last season, with nine yellow cards and one red.

Arnautovic is also unlikely to gain spot-kick duties at the London Stadium, with skipper Mark Noble expected to keep that responsibility while he retains a starting role. The new signing will also have to battle Lanzini for dead-ball deliveries, perhaps restricting his returns to open play.

Priced at 7.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) – the same as both Lanzini and Ayew – and a mere 0.5 cheaper than Antonio, Arnautovic will need to progress if he is to emerge as the key Hammers asset. In Sky Sports, an 8.8 price tag makes him West Ham’s most expensive midfield option.

Fortunately, we will be more than content to sit back monitor the situation, with West Ham’s opening schedule deterring initial interest. The Hammers face four away trips (mun sot new wba) over the first five Gameweeks.

That testing start, along with the fact that Bilic will have to incorporate two new influential players into his system, make it unlikely that Fantasy managers will look to the Hammers attack.

However, from Gameweek seven through to 13, Bilic’s men offer their first promising period.

They host Swansea City, Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool and Leicester City over that spell, alongside trips to Burnley, Watford and Crystal Palace. At that point, it will be worthwhile revisiting West Ham.

Doubtless, Arnautovic will catch the eye and even tempt investment. Whether he can keep pace or surpass a rapidly improving Lanzini is another matter.

By Gameweek seven, we will have the motivation to check in. At that stage, the impact of Arnautovic’s arrival will be clearer, both in terms of his own potential and the effect on Lanzini’s output.

Further Reference

Marko Arnautovic Wikipedia

Marko Arnautovic Transfer Markt Page

Marko Arnautovic You Tube Highlights