Having assessed those sides that we consider to have the strongest schedules over the opening six Gameweeks, we now focus on the teams who are destined to be largely ignored in our initial line-ups.
As part of the analysis, we also pay some attention to the “turning point” when the fixtures inevitably improve and offer our perspective on their change of prospects.
Everton
(STO mci che TOT mun BOU)
The Prospects – Goals
The Toffees were the sixth highest scorers last season, netting 62 times, but the 25-goal Romelu Lukaku will obviously be a huge miss this time around.
Ronald Koeman’s men could barely face a tougher start to the campaign from an attacking perspective.
They meet with the four strongest defences (mci che TOT mun) from last season in terms of goals conceded, with three of those matches on the road.
The home meetings with Stoke City and Bournemouth provide a little respite, with the Cherries vulnerable on their travels last term – conceding an average of two goals per match.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
After recording a respectable 13 shutouts in 2016/17, the Everton backline should also be boosted by the arrivals of Jordan Pickford and Michael Keane.
But coming up against the three top-scoring teams from the previous campaign in Spurs, Chelsea and Manchester City, clean sheets will likely be in short supply.
Additionally, Manchester United ranked second for total shots in home matches last season, with 338, while Bournemouth impressively finished fourth for big chances created away from home.
Only the opening weekend clash against Stoke City offers real hope of defensive returns.
The Turning Point
The Bournemouth match in Gameweek 6 marks the start of a hugely favourable run of fixtures for the Toffees, who avoid all of last season’s top six until the Merseyside derby in Gameweek 16.
Verdict
Pickford, Keane, Leighton Baines and Wayne Rooney are all found in over 10% of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads, but the brutal run of fixtures between Gameweeks 2- 5 means that they’re unlikely to deliver significant Fantasy returns during this period.
However, we clearly need to revisit Everton’s prospects from Gameweek 6.
Stoke City
(eve ARS wba MUN new CHE)
The Prospects – Goals
The Potters found goals hard to come by last season, recording just 41, while the loss of Marko Arnautovic to West Ham United will come as a major blow.
Forthcoming opponents Chelsea and Man United led the way for the fewest goals conceded on the road and the most clean sheets in away matches last season, while Arsenal were stronger at the back after shifting to a three-man defence.
Goals could also be limited on Stoke’s travels.
Everton were joint-third for the fewest conceded at home last season with just 16, while West Bromwich Albion only allowed 22, and Newcastle United shipped 23 goals in 23 league matches at St James’ Park in the Championship.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Mark Hughes’ side did record a more than respectable 11 shutouts last term, although they still conceded 56 goals.
However, Chelsea and Man United were ranked in the top five away sides for total attempts, while Arsenal sat fifth for shots inside the box and second for big chances on the road.
Everton, meanwhile, tallied an impressive 42 goals at Goodison Park last term, and only one team managed more home goals than Newcastle’s 49 in the Championship.
A trip to West Brom looks the only real prospect for defensive returns but could also prove tricky – the Baggies scored more home goals than Man United in 2016/17.
The Turning Point
A home meeting with Bournemouth in Gameweek 9 signals the start of a more favourable run for the Potters, who then face Watford, Leicester, Brighton and Hove Albion and Crystal Palace over the following four Gameweeks.
Verdict
Joe Allen (5.2%) is currently the most owned Stoke player in FPL, but the Wales international should probably be avoided with far stronger budget midfield options available. Meanwhile, question marks remain over Saido Berahino as a source of goals.
Clean sheets will surely be scarce, so Jack Butland holds little appeal during this stretch. However, this spell at least gives us time to assess whether Hughes’ backline can offer us a viable 4.5 option to cover a more favourable run of opponents.
Leicester City
(ars BHA mun CHE hud LIV)
The Prospects – Goals
The 2015/16 champions scored a modest 48 goals last season, although the arrival of Kelechi Iheanacho should boost the prospects of the Leicester attack once he’s settled.
Craig Shakespeare’s side endure a pretty miserable start to the campaign though, with Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United among the top four teams to allow the fewest shots from inside the box last season.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will be hard to break down at the Emirates on day one. The Gunners registered nine clean sheets last season at home last season – second only to Spurs (12).
The matches against Brighton and Huddersfield Town provide some room for optimism, although the Seagulls could also prove to be stubborn opponents – they totaled an impressive 21 clean sheets last term.
The Prospects – Clean Sheets
The Foxes only managed nine shutouts last term, with seven of those arriving at the King Power Stadium.
Based on those numbers, and given that Arsenal and Man United ranked third and sixth for big chances created in home matches, the opportunity for defensive points in those matches appears slim.
The Liverpool fixture also looks very difficult: the Reds had more shots (308) in away matches than any other side, while Chelsea were third for close-range efforts (165) on the road.
On the plus side, Brighton did only net 28 times in their 23 away trips last season, while Huddersfield scored just 34 goals in their 23 home matches in 2016/17.
The Turning Point
The Foxes’ fixture list eases considerably from Gameweek 7 onwards, with home clashes against Spurs and Chelsea the only tough tests right up until Gameweek 19.
Verdict
The 5.6%-owned Danny Simpson is currently the most popular Leicester player and, as a rotation option, he could still be a viable option.
But Jamie Vardy may struggle to provide the attacking points expected from an 8.5-priced forward during the opening month, with Riyad Mahrez certainly best avoided given the uncertainty surrounding his future at the club.
Iheanacho will likely turn out to be our main point of interest and this opening period will act as a handy barometer of his prospects as a mid-price attacking option.
Also be wary of…
Burnley
Sean Dyche’s men face a treacherous time of it away from Turf Moor, with trips to Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool over the first five Gameweeks.
This makes it unlikely that we’ll be prepared to back any Clarets attacker – particularly given the sudden departure of Andre Gray.
However, members of their backline – the reliable Ben Mee in particular – are still very viable rotation options given their hugely favourable home fixtures (WBA CRY HUD NEW SWA).
Chelsea
Antonio Conte’s champions attempt to shake off indifferent pre-season form with a plum home fixture against Burnley, but then face both Spurs and Arsenal over the first six Gameweeks.
The other three matches on the current slate (EVE lei stk) will also provide tests, meaning that Fantasy managers should show caution when assessing Blues assets alongside premium priced rivals.
Investors in Marcos Alonso may have to turn to attacking points for returns over these six, while the merits of looking to Willian and Cesc Fabregas as midfield solutions could rely on an early return against the Clarets on Saturday.
West Ham United
Faced with three successive away fixtures (mun sot new) to start the season, Slaven Bilic’s side are at an immediate disadvantage.
There’s also a difficult visit from Spurs in Gameweek 6 to contend with, although a home meeting with Huddersfield and a trip to West Brom do provide some upside.
Gameweek 7 appears to be the tipping point and, at that stage, we should have gained a full appraisal of the Hammers’ assets with Javier Hernandez settled and hopefully in form as a mid-price option in attack.
6 years, 10 months agoThe case for Milner and Firmino
Milner played much of last year in the defense of Liverpool, while classified as a midfielder in FPL. Doing a rough calculation of his points, if he had been classified as a defender, he would have had ~172 points WITHOUT bonus points. He had 16 BAPS with his midfield status, which would bring his point total to 188 points. More than any other defender, and only less than 5 midfielders. All of whom are priced at 9.5 or higher this year. Milner is 3.0 cheaper.
However, this year we are worried about rotation, and the thought the Milner COULD lose his status as the go to for penalty kicks. Enter Firmino, a player that typically reaches 10 goal/ 10 assist area, at least over the last two seasons and reached 3,000 minutes of playtime. Again, the rough calculation with him moving to forward is 158 with BAPS. If he adds the pens to his locker (and takes them from Milner), that could add potential to meet his midfield numbers from last year. Which would make him the 4th best forward in the game. He's also priced at 8.5; 1.0 or .5 cheaper than his midfield counterpart on Liverpool, all whom seem to have injury issues every year.
While many on the forum say that template is Lukaku - Kane - Firmino, I still see template defense of 6 - 5.5 - 5, in order to allow for Zaha (totally reasonable) at 7.0 (149 points last year) and Willian (who's spot will always be in jeopardy) at 7.0.
I would encourage us all to look at both Milner and Firmino from the hop, and sacrifice Willian to make this happen (likely upgrading from 5 or 5.5 defender). Once we know who is on pens, we adjust from there. This also means breaking from template defense - something I'm very comfortable with (on 7.0 - 6.5 - 6.0), to ensure we have the right individual on such an explosive team.