Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    RMT please lads

    Elliot
    Cedric Jones Naughton Bavies
    Mkhi Hazard Silva
    Jesus Kane Vardy

    Foster Atsu T.Carrol Mbemba

    0itb -4 taken

    Cheers

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      good

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looking good

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looks sexy

    4. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers fellas

  2. Lone Wolf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Guys, what way is the best? It's all about Chelsea picks!

    Fabianski, Elliot
    xxx, Jones, xxx, Ward, Mbemba
    Coutinho, xxx, Richarlison, xxx, Stephens
    Kane, Jesus, Vardy

    1. Alonso team - Alonso, Monreal, Sterling, Fabregas
    2. Hazard team - Monreal, Davies, Hazard, Choupo
    3. Double team - Azpi, Duffy, Hazard, Choupo

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I like A wolf

    2. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2. Quite easily for me as well.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2

    4. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      2

    5. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I like 2

  3. SIFLFC
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What do you think with with double ManCity?

    Sterling + Sane/David Silva could make a lot of points, i think.

    Richarlison + Hazard vs Sterling + David Silva?

    1. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I like all 4 options, probably the first one.

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling + Silva, especially over the next 2 gws

      1. SIFLFC
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thank you, guys!

        Difficult..

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Sterling and Silva

  4. Pirlø's Pen
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    AHHH. I need Morata news!

    Any other owners thinking just benching him for one game could be viable? I want him long term, like for AGES.

    Up in till GW 27. So don't think there is much point transferring him out if I can cover it with my bench.

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Get Jesus for 1 week then swap back

      1. Pirlø's Pen
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I already have Jesus & Kane.

    2. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I don't think he'll be back for a bit part till last game of the month. If by chance he features next week, it wont be for 90.

      1. Pirlø's Pen
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Hmmm, probably right. Think i'll aquire Hazard then. Want an attacker for these fixtures.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Im not a hazard fan, but your call.

      2. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I'd just sell, he'll be easy enough to get back in

  5. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Set on Chicha to Vardy. To afford it shall I do...

    Ramsey >

    A.) Groß
    B.) Choupo

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Choupo, but be prepared to sub him this week.

      1. AFC49
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Going 433, Ritchie as a sub.

        1. kysersosa
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Ritchie away to SOU vs Chou away to city? your call I guess

    2. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

  6. JogaSemmedo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Agree would go with those two for sure next two at least then reassess on Morata

    1. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks. Rondon & Crouch it is then

  7. VIRATKOHLI18
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A) Form over fixtures

    B) Fixtures over Form

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      The answer is a bit of both.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      we should follow A but inevitably get dragged in to B

    4. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

  8. BlueIncognito
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good to go? Still have a FT.

    DDG
    Cedric - Stones - Mee
    Ritchie - Eriksen - Ramsey - Hazard
    Kane - Jesus (C) - Abraham

    Elliot -- RLC, Schindler, Rangel

  9. Mr Q
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    No Love for Niasse or calvert-Lewin?

    Hazard-enabler for me!

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      CL - but not a huge fan, hasn't produced as id expect this season

      1. Mr Q
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Will he keep starting? Think the tide is turning for Everton now!

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have niasse, enables two big hitters up front, three in mid and a decent defence. just need him to bang a couple in - simple.

      1. Mr Q
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Same thought.. will he keep Playing? Or is calvert-Lewin more prone to keep his place?

  10. waltzingmatildas
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Would you go for
    A) Joselu
    B) Abraham

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have Joselu, but I'd probably rather take Abraham

    3. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B. Fixtures and good player.

  11. HP.
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Foster Elliot
    Jones Cedric Stones Mee (Mbemba)
    Eriksen Mkhi Cout (Choupo Carroll)
    Kane Lukaku Chicharito

    2FT 0.1ITB

    What would you recommend doing lads?

    1. kysersosa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Mik and Chich to sterling and Vardy.....very little city cover there

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      foster n chich out

  12. Harper (No more Penandes)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Comes down to this:

    A) Lukaku + Otamendi + £4.5 mid
    B) Jesus + Richarlison + £4.5 def

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      a

  13. sminkypinky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I guess i just have to roll with Jesus and worry about Kun when the time comes. Hopefully it's not this weekend. That would just be a piss poor wc decision.

  14. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Who would you play this week?

    A) Dunk (EVE h)
    B) Choupo-Moting (MCI a)

    1. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. 2hotty
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A for me

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks guys

    4. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      choupo

    5. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks

  15. DAVESAVES
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good to go?

    Fabianski
    Davies Jones Ward Simpson
    Hazard Silva Richarlison
    Lukaku Kane Vardy

    Elliot Mbemba ChoupoM King

    Thanks

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah, looks good

  16. sminkypinky
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Maguire or Cedric?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Maguire, more goal threat plus his good fixtures last for a longer period of time

      1. sminkypinky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Agreed. Confirmed him in.

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      That's a toughie! I have Cedric and am happy with the next 4 fixtures, but Maguire has much more attacking potential, I think.

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Neither, for me.

      1. sminkypinky
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I think they'll both do well. Sadly room for only one of them.

  17. theroadrunner
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What do you think about a midfield of Mkhi-Hazard-Sterling-Fabregas-Sane? Looks crazy but still want your thoughts lads.

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Don't like it, especially if on a WC, realistically you could need to transfer at least 2-3 of those out soon enough

      1. theroadrunner
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I am on a wildcard yes. I just feel hazard and fabregas can stir up some real things. So goes for sane and sterling.

        1. We Will Klopp you
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Too risky imo, would do one of Sane/Sterling to Silva

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Well ... I have Eriksen, Coutinho, Silva, Sterling & Stephens.

      🙂

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Looks great, one suggestion though... Salah for Coutinho 😉 hehe

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Not today, thank you. 🙂

    3. theroadrunner
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I think no matter what, this weekend will end in regret. i've always played it safe but thinking of going bold this time.

  18. 2hotty
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A just

  19. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Team looking proper grim. 2.3itb 1ft. Any advice - am resigned to hit(s). No city and plenty of injuries or suchlike.

    Elliott (Foster)
    Kola** Bavies Naughton Jones (Mbemba)
    Mkhi* Ramsey Salah (RLC**, TC) Morata** Firmino* Kane

  20. TheBabyfacedAssassin
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Please talk me out of doing Lukaku, Chica and Silva > Jesus, Vardy and Sterling (-8)!

    1. bombayblues
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Do it!

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Silva and Lukaku out, as part of a -8? Madness. Jesus may get 60 mins or less, only upgrade there is chicha to Vardy

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      That's madness, imho

    4. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Don't do it.

    5. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Silva to Sterling as part of a -8 is nuts. Perhaps you'd need the 0.6m to afford the others, but in that case I'd look at doing something else.

      1. TheBabyfacedAssassin
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        You're right, it's for the funds. I'll look elsewhere. Cheers.

    6. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Why?

    7. korbendallas82
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Having Lukaku is nice anyway. Same price range to swap with Aguero.

  21. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Which one would you rather have?

    A) Otamendi and David Luiz
    B) Walker and Cedric

    A hard on isnt it..

    1. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      AAA

    2. R.C
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Definitely a hard on

      1. Maddamotha
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Haha. Typo!

      2. FFS, M8
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I am still laughing

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm hard for B.

  22. Monkey Hanger
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone see the Swansea presser today?

    Clement looks like he has been on the piss all week.

    The job must be really getting to him.

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Wouldn't you be if you were relying on an overrated Renato Sanches and an overweight, unfit Bony?

      1. Monkey Hanger
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I nearly felt sorry for him. Then I remembered he probably earns more in a week than I do in a year.

  23. Delhidynamo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A) Haz + Ota + Mbema

    B) Sterling + Azpi + Alonso

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B easily

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

  24. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    If on WC...

    A. Alonso, Walker, Monreal (5th defender), Joselu (enables to play 5 or 4 at the back, Joselu can be rotated with Choupa)

    B. David Luiz, Otamendi, Mbemba(5th defender), Vardy

    Prefer A or B? Thanks.

    1. The Royal Robin
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

  25. Drum8888
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Any news on Aguero yet, wasn't he supposed to be training with the full squad today?

    1. Fingerspitzengefühl
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He trained, but not with the squad

  26. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Oh bloody hell what's wrong with Kolasinac now?! Yellow flagged 🙁

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Late fitness test.

      1. Sánchez
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        The report didn't really say that. Just said minor hip problem in wenger quote. Never really suggested he might miss out

        https://www.express.co.uk/sport/football/865411/Arsenal-news-Arsene-Wenger-Gunners/amp

        1. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Thanks all

        2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Was basing it on The Physio site.

          Usually preety good.

    2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      probably just an oil change

  27. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Rash Comment.

    will outscore Lukaku this season.

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Rashford..? No chance.

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        That's what they said about Leicester.

        1. Drum8888
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          If Lukaku's injury gets worse then he probably will

        2. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Lol True.

  28. gilean
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Should I get rid of Mane in draft? Could get Fabregas in. Other midfielders are Ozil, Pedro, Richarlison and Hazard

  29. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Why are Lukaku, Salah and Kolasinac dropping so quickly?!

    I will lose soooo much value...

    1. gilean
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      None of them are dropping if it's price changes you are thinking about

      1. TaiwanHC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        They will not drop tonight, but probably before the GW starts.

        http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/

        1. gilean
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          They are a long way from drop. Not sure if any are going to drop

    2. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Don't worry about it if they are players you want to keep (but perhaps I'm assuming things there?)

      1. Reedy
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Also remember that not every drop results in value loss...depends when you bought them.

  30. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Why is Chicharito not in WHU's team in team news? Has Bilic said he won't play?

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Just come back to training. Available for selection.

      Everybody apart from Collins is supposed to be fit.

      1. The Royal Robin
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Lovely. Lanzini back might even be good for Chich.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          I doubt it, the lazy little fecker.

          1. The Royal Robin
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Haha.