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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Junior ⚽
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Sane/Azpi to Hazard/6.0.

    Best £6.0 defender?

    1. Tmel
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ota?

      1. Junior ⚽
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Owned him before but don't fancy his next 3. No cleans in 6.

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Christensen, Otamendi

      1. Junior ⚽
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Chelsea tripled up already.

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      What JF said

      1. Junior ⚽
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Above and above.

  2. Clifford☯
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    CITY XI | Ederson, Danilo, Mangala, Adarabioyo, Fernandinho (c), Foden, Yaya Toure, Gundogan, Bernardo, Sane, G Jesus

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Looks like Ederson won't be playing GW16 then.

    2. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      SUBS | Bravo, Walker, Sterling, Aguero, Otamendi, Duhaney, Diaz

    3. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Starting Sane is not a smart decision from Pep

      1. Yozzer
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        You wouldn't think he would want to win the title this weekend.

        1. ZeBestee
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          If he gets injured from a dead rubber then all of a sudden he has no other wing choice to replace him. With his tactical game a Mendy/ Sane is important to stretch opponents

  3. shearer9
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Where can I get updates on Cedric’s injury?

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You still have Cedric!! 😯

      Presser later in week

  4. Tmel
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    a) DDG Pereira Kiko Tarkowski
    b) DDG Speroni Zeeg Mee

    1. Junior ⚽
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I'd do DDG Pereira Zeeg Mee

      Keep the 0.1 ITB, never know when you might need it

    3. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B with Kiko not possible?

  5. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Captain one:

    A) Kane
    B) Morata
    C) Hazard
    D) Salah
    E) KDB

    Most votes gets my pick

    1. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A or C

      1. jimmy.floyd
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        This

    2. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Legohair
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    4. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      C

    5. Runaway
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

  6. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hiya lads,

    Elliot + Mustafi + Wilson > DDG + Zeegelaar + DCL worth a -8?
    (Alternatively i could do Ward > Mbemba and keep Mustafi)

    Have exact cash to do this, Kane going down in price, Elliot dropped, Zeegelaar rising. will be priced out otherwise, just looking for more opinions.

    For Context, my team is:

    Elliot
    Christensen - Otamendi - Mustafi
    Richarlison - Hazard - Salah - Sterling
    Kane - Morata - Wilson
    ______________________________
    Krul: Ward, Moreno, RLC

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers everyone

  7. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Which 3 would you Bench? Or play BB?

    Fab
    Ota / Christensen / Kiko / Ward / Duffy
    Salah / Richarl / Hazard / Coutinho / RLC
    Kane / Morata / DCL
    (Elliot / XXX / XXX / XXX)

    1. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Duffy RLC & DCL

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks! Duffy at Hud! Surprised at that one

        1. Clifford☯
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          I'm also benching Dunk this week atm. Look out for CS odds later this week.

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah G Wizz is the man!

    2. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Don't bench boost, would bench RLC, DCL and Kiko

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks mate! Really struggling on who to pick this week! A good headache I guess

  8. We Will Klopp you
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Bravo rested

    1. StoichkovFPL
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      here, get that +1 😉

  9. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    So how many posts and threads were deleted this morning, sems like quite a few?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Was there some drama?

      1. Gnu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        FFS self-appointed favourite poster had some sort of meltdown - of a sort.

        1. DAZZ
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Who? Haha did i miss some drama

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah "self-appointed favourite poster" doesn't actually narrow it down that much 😛

        2. BananaNose Maldonado
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Virg?

          1. ★Kuntheman★
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Virg or Chapelle having an existential crisis would be pretty funny

            1. Gnu
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              One of them is a self appointed expert, big difference. 😉

              1. ★Kuntheman★
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                😆 is there though? 🙂

            2. BananaNose Maldonado
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              I like Virg. He's a bit obsessive about the Scoutcast, but adds to the forum. Chapelle? Well, um.

              1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
                • 6 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                This

              2. ★Kuntheman★
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                I honestly don't mind Virg either. I quite openly don't like Chapelle haha

            3. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Aw I like Virg. He's polite and positive and a keen bean.

        3. ★Kuntheman★
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          I miss all of the fun 🙁

          "self-appointed favourite poster" lots of people fall under that one

          1. BananaNose Maldonado
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            We probably all do 🙂

    2. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Are the posts getting deleted?

  10. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    LIVERPOOL TEAM NEWS

    Team to play Spartak Moscow: Karius, Gomez, Lovren, Klavan, Moreno, Can, Wijnaldum, Coutinho, Salah, Mane, Firmino

    Subs: Mignolet, Alexander-Arnold, Milner, Henderson, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Solanke, Sturridge

  11. @FPL_liverbird (liverpoolfa…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Following the Scoutcast thoughts on Kane out after brighton and bringing in a like for like (high cost) mid replacement, I decided to look at the finances behind these moves.

    Now for example, I would switch GW18 - Carrol + Kane > Sanchez (most exp mid) + Calvert-Lewin

    Then in GW22 - Niasse + Sanchez > Kane + Loftus-Cheek

    In doing this move since I have had Kane so long, I would lose .2m. I'd also lose .2m (diff between Niasse and DCL), and .2m (diff between loftus cheek and Carrol).

    In total with my current 1m ITB, that would be reduced to .6m following the moves and gains/losses on certain players. This is obviously subject to increases and decreases on price which makes it very tight IMO with the fixture list coming up.

    That was an example with the most expensive mid and I think that this could be favourable when using a mid replacement less that 11.8m(sanchez), But with having such a small margin of error, I see this plan quite risky IMO.

    It would be interesting to see what people are thinking regarding this move which could as Jonty said, be a successful way to gain valuable places, given Kane's woeful form and tough fixtures in that period.

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I am gonna do it

      Gonna double up on pool or get in sanchez for rlc and Murray for Kane

      1. @FPL_liverbird (liverpoolfa…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        There's one issue I've come up with this. For the DGW you're double transfer is Kane + someone. Now that means if you want to get multiple players playing twice (tot + whu players) you're doing it prior to that gw22 transfer and they don't play gw21. The only way it works is if you take a hit in gw22 to get an extra whu or tot player in and have two players playing double gw. I think there's too much going on and for that reason its not worth it. During this period your focus has to be simplified and this just seems to be a headache to think about.

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Every year I spend time and effort making sure I make as much cash as possible so that in the New Year I have more cash than most. Then moves are done purely for pts. GW22 is Jan1, and guess what? I no longer bother about money, rules are rules.

  12. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    TOTTENHAM TEAM NEWS

    Starting XI: Vorm, Aurier, Sanchez, Foyth, Rose, Winks, Sissoko, Dele, Nkoudou, Son, Llorente

    Subs: Gazzanigga, Davies, Vertonghen, Walker-Peters, Amos, Dembele, Sterling

  13. CloudSky
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    #THFC: Vorm (C), Aurier, Sanchez, Foyth, Rose, Winks, Sissoko, Dele, Nkoudou, Son, Llorente. #COYS

  14. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    City, Spurs, & Real @ 9/2

    Seems Big. C'mon!

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      How much did you put on?

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Just a Pony. 🙂

        1. Epic Fail
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Animal cruelty reported.

          Enjoy your ban.

          1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            😯

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Does look good that

  15. ★Kuntheman★
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Foden 🙂

  16. Junior ⚽
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Sakho £4.9m a good differential?

    1. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes I think so and I’ve brought him in this week for Simpson.

  17. FredrikH
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Would you Sterling -> Coutinho (-4) if you already have Salah and no city players?

    1. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Wtf, no.

    2. Mackans
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No,Sterling is rested tonight:)

    3. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Is the arrow the wrong way around? Looks like it is going by the latter part of the sentence.

    4. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No

  18. ★Kuntheman★
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Would've benched Sane for Diaz personally, can't really complain with the rest

    1. Smurf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Surely Ederson should have been given the night off too?

      1. ★Kuntheman★
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Mate if we give Ederson the night off we might as well forfeit the game instead and give everyone a night off

  19. FOMFF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Bench one of:
    Kiko (BUR)
    Daniels (CRY)
    RFC (BOU)

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Rfc.. Ruben fried chicken. Probably should bench Daniels.

  20. Magic Bean
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    The analysis on Kane is great n'all but it'll probably end up being more simpler than people make out. The man has Stoke and Brighton at home next. If he does well in those fixtures we keep, if he underperforms in those fixtures we sell and bring back for 22

    1. Clump
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      •The bean speaks the truth.

  21. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    How many GW's before the 1st wildcard expires?

  22. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Rate this team 1-10

    Hennessey
    Alonso Ward Femenia
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata

    Bench: Elliot Kenny Marriappa Quaner

    1. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You on wildcard?

      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        No i have this team right now

        1. AFC49
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Fair enough, agree with the comment below. Great line-up, weak bench.

    2. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Starting 11 - 9
      Bench - 2

      1. Mackans
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah my bench isn't good

        1. Clump
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Risk and reward.
          You've got bigger potatoes than me 😉

  23. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    CITY XI | Ederson, Danilo, Mangala, Adarabioyo, Fernandinho (c), Foden, Yaya Toure, Gundogan, Bernardo, Sane, G Jesus

    SUBS | Bravo, Walker, Sterling, Aguero, Otamendi, Duhaney, Diaz

    1. ★Kuntheman★
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      -------------Ederson------------
      --Danilo---Mangala----Adarabioyo
      -----Fernandinho-Yaya Toure----
      Bernardo---Gundogan-----Sane
      -----------------Foden----------------
      -----------------Jesus----------------

      That's kinda how I'm picturing that

      1. gwitbrock
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Looks about right to me

  24. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Davies isnt starting today so would like to keep him atleast one more week.
    What did Pep say about Silvas injury? Is he really gonna miss derby next week?
    One way could be, Davies and Silva >> Kiko and Coutinho/Mane for a hit.

  25. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    That’s it Harry, you rest up for that 4 pointer this weekend

  26. Fpldonny
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Checks City starting lineup to get a clue about who might play at the weekend. Realizes its a pointless exercise. Cracks open another beer and carries on with evening.

  27. Js31
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Exact funds for Silva > Countinho. Yes or no?

    1. Visionaries
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    3. AFC49
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    4. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Let the games play out first just incase.

      1. GAMBIT
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        This

  28. Visionaries
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Best move

    A T Carroll > Young
    B T Carroll > RLC
    C Niasse > Cal Lew
    D Daniels > Davies/Trippier

    1. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    3. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B is the simplest solution for now.

  29. Clump
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    That Pool attack 😉

  30. jdogg
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    A lukaku sane groß
    B vardy hazard groß -4
    C austin sane hazard -4

    Thoughts?x

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A looks by far the best long-term

    3. gwitbrock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Austin Hazard Coutinho

      1. gwitbrock
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        x