The Burning Question – Sell or Keep Salah?

He has no Double Gameweeks to come, is now a major rotation risk and only two other midfielders cost more in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

But, you know, 273 points – that’s 17 more than Alexis Sanchez and Paul Pogba have managed between them this season.

The 2017/18 FPL campaign has belonged to Mohamed Salah.

Liverpool’s wide man has five matches left to chase down both Frank Lampard’s all-time record for FPL points from midfield (284 in 2009/10) and the game’s best ever score – the 295 amassed by Luis Suarez in 2013/14.

But with Liverpool still in the Champions League, Salah might not feature in all those league matches, while big-ticket teams such as Spurs, Man United and Chelsea still have two Double Gameweeks to come.

Not owning Salah this year has been a hurtful experience – just ask FPL’s reigning champion and Liverpoolphobe, Ben Crabtree – and selling him now could still come back to bite us.

Ben forms part of our expert panel, which also includes last season’s runner-up Uwais Ahmed, Career Hall of Fame luminaries Peter Kouwenberg and Jay Egersdorff and current world number 23 Matt Kearney (aka Bowstring The Carp), to tackle the latest of our Burning Questions: Do we sell or keep Mohamed Salah?

Matt Says…

As we saw last weekend, Jurgen Klopp was willing to rest key players in the Merseyside derby without a second thought.

This rotation, in addition to a handful of injuries, forced me into an unintended Wildcard late last Friday night, part of which involved reluctantly selling Salah.

And while the thought of losing the highest-scoring player does frighten the life out of me, I firmly believe that sacrificing him as part of my chip strategy could well be the aggressive move needed to push for a top 10 finish in the overall rankings.

With Liverpool advancing to the Champions League semi-final, I believe there is really only one fixture that Salah might hurt my rank – this weekend’s match against Bournemouth.

Luckily, the Double Gameweek will deter many from handing Salah the armband, but no doubt the Egyptian will want to send a “hands off” message to his main Golden Boot rival, Harry Kane.

Should I survive this weekend, I think the worst is behind me, for several reasons.

I can bring Salah back for the trip to West Brom with my Free Hit chip in Gameweek 35.

The following week, Liverpool face Stoke City at Anfield, a fixture wedged between the two legs of their Champions League semi-final, so we could see more rotation, or at least reduced minutes, for Salah.

In Gameweek 37, they travel to face Chelsea, which could be a meaningless match if Liverpool’s top four place is cemented by then.

Furthermore, that’s another Double Gameweek, meaning Salah again loses his captaincy appeal.

Finally, in Gameweek 38 and if the Golden Boot race is still close, I can easily get him in to cover my back.

Uwais Says…

It really is an interesting one, this, as I feel those with or without Salah each have cause for optimism.

I can see how, over the course of the comings weeks, Salah could become an interesting differential, which is staggering when you consider what he has achieved to this point.

The fact is that ever since the introduction of the multiple chips, the climax of the season has been dominated by Double Gameweeks.

Team selection for the run-in has always been made with a view to maximising the potential for big returns on offer from players participating in those doubles. This will not be a privilege afforded to Salah.

I currently have him in my squad. The thinking was that with nice fixtures from Gameweeks 31-38 (aside from the away trip to Chelsea), it seemed appropriate to hold onto him, particularly if they lost in the Champions League quarter-finals.

However, not only did they come through the tough tie against Man City, his injury in the first leg led to him missing the Merseyside derby in between. This raises a dilemma.

Will Klopp now treat him with kid gloves and not risk too many meaningful Premier League minutes in order to keep him fresh for the Champions League semi-finals?

The first leg of the tie falls between league matches against West Brom and Stoke and it is difficult to judge how the Liverpool manager will approach team selection.

I take the view that Klopp will want to keep his key players sharp for the next few matches and therefore, for the time being, it is wise to hold Salah until the coach gives any indication to the contrary.

It is true that Liverpool are relatively comfortable within the top four and do not have a huge amount to play for.

However, I believe Klopp will prioritise match-sharpness at a competitive level.

Add in the news of Harry Kane’s successful appeal for the goal against Stoke City, and the subsequent reaction from Salah on social media, and I believe there will be a renewed effort to seal the Golden Boot for the Egyptian by his team-mates.

There are some who will focus on the Double Gameweeks in order to maximise returns from players playing twice. I understand that.

However, we often fall into the trap of sacrificing players who have good single fixtures. Therefore, for now, I feel comfortable holding Salah.

In Double Gameweek 34, I expect him to take the field at home to Bournemouth and I feel confident in his returns.

Salah always delivers. Always.

Jay Says…

Here’s a dilemma I’ve spent a large portion of the last fortnight weighing up in my mind, and one where I took decisive action just moments before the close of the Gameweek 33 deadline.

Having initially felt that parting with the potential all-time FPL points leader was madness, Liverpool’s 3-0 first leg Champions League victory over Man City, combined with Salah’s injury ahead of the Merseyside derby, prompted me to reassess.

In the end I did the unthinkable – I sold Salah.

In one move, I’d said farewell to this season’s star man, as well as a cool 1.0 in team value.

But with the end of the season in sight and Double Gameweeks to negotiate, there was a method behind that madness.

My theory was heavily reliant on Liverpool progressing to the semi-finals in Europe, with Salah the man to deliver the crucial blow with an away goal. And that’s how it panned out.

I’m predicting that their favourable home match against Stoke in Gameweek 36 will see Salah rested, as the fixture falls between the two legs of the Champions League semi-final.

He then faces Chelsea away in an otherwise Double Gameweek-laden 37, but I still have a Free Hit, which covers re-signing Salah for Gameweek 35 (if required).

If my theory plays out, this would mean I’d be without Salah for Gameweeks 34 and 37 but, if needed, I could still bring him back in for his attractive final-day fixture at home to Brighton.

To mitigate the risk of not having Salah, I recognised that bringing in a Spurs, Man United or Chelsea midfielder for Gameweek 33 (discounting Free Hit Gameweek 35) would give me an opportunity for them to earn points in all but Gameweek 35, with two Double Gameweeks to follow.

That meant a total of seven fixtures to Salah’s (predicted) three from Gameweek 33 onwards.

I also took into account the fact that, prior to Gameweek 38, and with the exception of Gameweek 36, it was unlikely I’d be handing Salah the captain’s armband.

And I also had Gameweek 36 cover anyway, with a favourable home match against Watford looking like the perfect opportunity to captain a Spurs player.

This theory would have got off to a flying start in Gameweek 33 had I gone for Christian Eriksen (15 points) or Paul Pogba (14 points).

In the event, I went for Dele Alli, who still bagged a useful six points; a three-point gain on my alternative option involving holding Salah and relying on my first sub, Kenedy, (Gameweek 33 score: three points).

Even if Liverpool had capitulated against Man City in Europe, and excluding the Gameweek 35 Free Hit, there was still the safety net of Alli’s six remaining fixtures to Salah’s four.

I accept that this ploy is risky and those who’ve followed me this season will know I was badly burned by my #Kanexit strategy over Christmas.

I also know from 10+ years playing FPL that it pays to be risk-averse for 95% of the time.

But if you spot an opportunity to break away from the pack and have some solid theory behind the strategy, it can pay off handsomely if you get it right.

After all, FPL is a prediction game…

Ben Says…

I guess if you have Salah, then continued ownership will scupper plans to have a full team of Double Gameweek players in 34 and 37.

If you instinctively prefer the look of your team when each player has two fixtures underneath his name, then you’re probably telling yourself that Salah may get rested around the Champions League semi-finals.

Personally, I don’t think this will be much of an issue. The fact that Liverpool don’t have doubles means they have plenty of space to fit in the two extra Champions League matches without it being a hugely congested schedule.

Salah’s fixtures, allied with the chase for the Golden Boot and Premier League scoring record all point to him demanding pitch-time and still playing with purpose.

Not many players will beat Salah from now until the end of the season, even if they play two more matches.

I would only advise considering dropping him if you’re chasing in mini-leagues and need to pull something out the hat.

The extra money could improve several players and work favourably – if the expensive forwards and mid-price midfielders do well. The fact that rivals won’t captain Salah in two of the remaining Gameweeks softens the risk.

However, if you feel like you’re on track for a good finish, then I wouldn’t advise selling the most punishing player I’ve known since playing FPL.

From experience, not owning Salah is overall ranking suicide.

Peter Says…

What an intriguing question, but let’s remind ourselves of the facts.

Liverpool are now ten points clear of Chelsea, having played a match more. So they need nine more points from their last five fixtures to secure a top-four finish – assuming Chelsea win all of their remaining fixtures, but without second-guessing the outcome of the Reds’ trip to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 37.

As a result, the Reds are not home and hosed just yet, although they could be before that Chelsea clash on May 6.

As for Europe, Klopp’s approach to the Europa League in 2016 suggests that Salah’s minutes (and possibly starts) are at risk, possibly with the West Brom and/or Stoke fixtures the most vulnerable to rotation, although that is speculative.

Salah’s points per match figure (8.8) is two clear of his nearest rivals, he’s plundered 83 more points (273) than the second-placed Raheem Sterling (190) and he is the most owned player in FPL (56.6% at the time of writing).

Those of us who had the audacity to own, but not captain, Salah throughout the season know just how damaging his hauls can be, even before we contemplate going without the mercurial winger completely.

I absolutely appreciate that the current form of Double Gameweek players Christian Eriksen and Alexis Sanchez is on a par with Salah’s, and that two matches may be presumed better than one.

However, my current thinking is to retain Salah’s services this weekend, make a late call when using my Free Hit Chip in Gameweek 35 and then look to ditch him, either in Gameweek 36 or Gameweek 37.

This may be a more cautious approach than that of many managers, but canning FPL’s top performer is not a decision I take lightly.

I will, however, be glued to the grapevine in the hope of receiving reliable leaked team news before the Bournemouth clash.

Because if there is any suggestion that Salah’s Gameweek 34 minutes are going to be curtailed, he is history.