Spot the Differential – Sterling can outscore City team-mates in Gameweek 2

The upcoming Gameweek 2 deadline has given us the chance to shift our focus to some early-season differential options.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Ben Chilwell (£5.0m)

Ownership: 0.5%

Ben Chilwell (£5.0m) has already shown some potential that he can follow in the footsteps of full-backs around the Premier League and be a powerful Fantasy asset.

The Leicester City man showed some serious promise in his side’s 2-1 defeat to Manchester United in Gameweek 1, mainly in his positioning. No defender managed as many touches in the final third than Chilwell’s 46 on the opening week or registered more in the opposing half either (61). He received the ball 22 times in United’s defensive third, second best among defenders, and no stopper completed more than his 22 passes in that area of the pitch. Those numbers show that, not only was he taking fantastic positions, he was being put to good use there too.

In fact, only one defender created more chances than Chilwell’s three in Gameweek 1. That was Jose Holebas (£4.6m) who was on corner duty for Watford in an arguably much easier fixture, at home against a travel-sick Brighton side. One of Chilwell’s chances was from a corner taken admittedly when James Maddison (£6.5m) was off the pitch. But only Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m) and Kyle Walker (£6.5m) bested the 21-year-old’s three take-ons.

It may have been noted that Chilwell registered just one touch in the box compared to Ricardo Pereira’s (£5.0m) four. However, the former Porto defender was deployed on the right-wing in the match and is expected to push back to full-back soon with new winger Rachid Ghezzal (£5.5m) approaching full match fitness, making Chilwell’s aforementioned promise more sustainable in theory.

Leicester’s next four home matches are Wolves, Liverpool Huddersfield and Everton, with clean sheets a real possibility in at least two of them and attacking returns in three. As for the Foxes’ away trips, they look promising too, with Southampton, Bournemouth and Newcastle all to come between now and Gameweek 7. With those fixtures, Chilwell could prove a shrewd signing and in just 0.5 percent of squads he could help propel his owners up through the FPL ranks.

Raheem Sterling (£11.0m)

Ownership: 3.3%

It feels strange to include a player like Raheem Sterling (£11.0m) in this section of our coverage, but the numbers simply cannot lie. Despite registering a personal-best FPL score of 229 points in 2017/18, the England international comes into Gameweek 2 in just over three percent of squads. He was the seventh-most popular Manchester City midfielder for their 2-0 win at Arsenal and budget-man Fernandinho (£5.5m) had over three times as many owners as him for the fixture.

Despite scoring in that match, just 50,000+ managers have made the decision to sign him ahead of a home match against Huddersfield Town on Sunday afternoon, a fixture he could perform very well in.

Sterling registered more penalty box touches (11) than any other Premier League midfielder on opening weekend, while only Callum Wilson (£6.0m) recorded more than that in the forwards bracket. In fact, no Man City player topped his three shots on goal either.

Mohamed Salah’s (£13.0m) price-hike for 2018/19 and viable City options such as Riyad Mahrez (£9.0m) and Bernardo Silva (£7.5m) are clearly the reason for Sterling’s smaller ownership, but he can still be a powerful asset for Fantasy managers. Those who are opting to avoid to Salah’s hefty cost, perhaps looking to Sadio Mané (£9.5m) for Liverpool goals and assists can make serious use of Sterling, who, admittedly after just one match, looks one of the most dangerous options for the Champions.

Rotation-wise, a long-term injury to Kevin De Bruyne (£9.9m) should help Sterling’s cause too. It’s one less body to come into the midfield, but the Belgian’s absence should also force options such as Bernardo and David Silva (£8.5m) to occupy deeper roles and reducing the personnel capable of playing a more attacking role in Sterling’s place. Furthermore, he was pushed straight back into the City team just five days after returning to training following the World Cup, and deployed on the left-flank. All that despite the fact that Leroy Sané (£9.5m) had been present for all of pre-season and, in Pep Guardiola’s words, still had work to do.

Sean Morrison (£5.0m)

Ownership: 0.6%

Cardiff centre-back Sean Morrison (£5.0m) looks a decent shout for a combination of attacking and defensive returns in Gamweek 2 as Newcastle United come to south Wales.

No FPL defender had as many touches in the opposition penalty box than Morrison’s five last week, which was level with Liverpool’s Andrew Robertson (£6.0m). Only one of those was an attempt on goal, but in 2017/18, he was a powerful weapon for Cardiff from set-piece situations. His 50 attempts on goal averaged out at one every 66.6 minutes, which was better than any Premier League centre-back last season. Crucially, he found the net seven times, more than any Championship defender with Cardiff the joint-top scorers from set-plays in the division (21). In fact, no Premier League stopper scored more either, with Marcos Alonso (£6.5m) the top asset in that department, also with seven goals.

Cardiff themselves were hard to break down at the Cardiff City Stadium in 2017/18. They had the best defensive record at home in the Championship, with just 16 goals conceded in 23 matches (0.69 per game) and kept 11 clean sheets there too. The Bluebirds also registered more interceptions per match than any second-tier side (13.9) and blocked more shots per game than any of the promoted sides (three).

Newcastle weren’t too bad on their travels in 2017/18, but did struggle to convert their chances. They actually ranked seventh for shots in away matches with 226, making them the best at that statistic outside the division’s top six. 78 of those were on target (also ranked seventh). However, only four teams had worse goal conversion rates on the road than their eight percent.

While Morrison’s £5.0m price-tag is a little off-putting, the numbers indicate that a clean sheet is a possibility for Cardiff this weekend. With 4.1 percent of Fantasy managers holding Lee Peltier (£4.0m), at the very least it looks like this could be one of the weekends to put him in the starting line-up.

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