Why Mitrovic is an important FPL option as Burnley show differential potential

Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) proved himself one of the best value Fantasy Premier League budget forwards once again on Saturday.

We’ve gone over his latest performance to assess why he’s so important to Fantasy managers this season.

Also in this Scout Notes article we’ve got all the talking points from a coupon-busting 4-0 win for Burnley over Bournemouth.

Fulham 1-1 Watford

Goals: Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) | Andre Gray (£6.0m)

Assists: Luciano Vietto (£5.5m) | Will Hughes (£5.0m)

Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.9m) proved his Fantasy value once more as he scored the equaliser in Fulham’s 1-1 draw with Watford. Crucially, the striker demonstrated the advantage of studying underlying statistics. Mitrovic came into Gameweek 6 top of the league for shots on target and delivered on that by netting his fifth goal in six matches. Since his debut for Fulham in February 2018, no player has scored more goals in English football than Mitrovic’s 17. Sergio Aguero (£11.4m) is the only FPL forward with more points than him after the first six rounds.

The fact that he is still priced under £7.0m, for now, makes him a hugely important asset to own going forward. The fixtures continue to appeal for attacking returns between now and Gameweek 12 and Mitrovic’s underlying numbers keep on getting better. No player in Saturday’s lunch-time kick-off got close to his eight shots, and that’s even with Fulham playing particularly dreadful in the first-half. Behind him in joint-second place were Luciano Vietto (£5.5m) and Andre Gray (£6.0m) with just three. In fact, Mitrovic has now overtaken even Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) for total shots on goal and remains top of the league for efforts on target.

“(Mitrovic) is fighting well, it wasn’t easy with a couple of Watford centre-backs but he is working strong and we didn’t create so many things for him today. From two chances, he scored one goal and it’s good news for us, I am sure he is not completely satisfied, he is a winner and wants to win the game but we will try next time.”
– Slaviša Jokanović

While Mitrovic remains a key Fantasy target, his defensive colleagues showed once again why they should be avoided. Only Cardiff (14) and Huddersfield (14) have conceded more goals than Fulham (13) so far this season. Their encounter with Watford was the second in a row where they were breached inside the opening two minutes. This time they spurned four opportunities to clear a throw-in which was turned in eventually by Gray.

The Cottagers look set to continue as FPL whipping boys with Burnley the only side to have allowed more shots than them in the opening six Gameweeks. Meanwhile, West Ham are the only Premier League outfit to have conceded more on target than Fulham.

The back-four is clearly an unsettled area of Slaviša Jokanović’s team. He has named a different quartet of players in that position in every single league match this season. Ryan Sessegnon (£6.2m) was deployed at left-back once again, even though Joe Bryan (£4.9m) was fit. The former Bristol City full-back was actually left out of the matchday squad entirely. Sessegnon’s positioning for Watford’s goal on Saturday lunch-time was especially poor, and the Hornets doubled up on him in an attempt to expose him.

But Sessegnon wasn’t even the poorest defensive player for Fulham in a truly dreadful first-half. Jokanović was forced to substitute Alfie Mawson (£5.0m) at the interval. The former Swansea man gifted chances to Gray and Roberto Pereyra (£6.3m) with two poorly executed defensive headers, before going on to pick up a yellow card. In fact, he was fortunate not to concede a penalty for an ill-advised tackle on Will Hughes (£5.0m). Judging by his performance, Jokanovic is sure to make changes to his defence for Gameweek 7.

“I made two changes. If I have the opportunity to make four I would do it. It’s not a question about one player or what I change, any player wasn’t in a good enough level in the first 45 minutes and at the end, I try to make some kind of support for my team and move a bit different. Credit to the team, they showed different levels in the second 45 minutes and changed the story.” – Slaviša Jokanović

Substitutes Denis Odoi (£4.5m) and Floyd Ayité (£4.4m) did well in the second half and helped turn the game round in Fulham’s favour. Both players were involved in the Cottagers’ promotion campaign last season so have plenty of credit in the bank with Jokanović. Their exploits and the poor first-half performances could see them come into contention to start Gameweek 7, although Jokanović claims he is not concerned with the line-up for the trip to Everton yet.

“I’m not thinking of next week, I am thinking of Tuesday. I start today with two of my most experienced Premier League players that I have and we didn’t find enough answers during the game. They played together before, but I cannot blame anybody because it’s not my intention, I am a new coach for them and they are new players for me, this is our sixth game in the Premier League. We must know who is who, I make one lap, the second lap is to check my player and at the end, I know a bit more today than yesterday and probably I will know more the next day. I repeat it’s not only two players that I changed in the 45 minutes. We didn’t make enough good job in the first half.” – Slaviša Jokanović

For the fifth match in a row Watford, manager Javi Gracia named an unchanged side. According to BBC Sport, it meant that they became just the fifth Premier League team to name the same starting XI for the first six games of a season. Although their 100% record was ended in Gameweek 5 and they perhaps should have won at Craven Cottage, manager Gracia should retain faith in his players. The Hornets still sit fourth in the Premier League table, above bigger clubs such as Tottenham, Man United and Arsenal. It is a very settled team, in Hertfordshire, which is good news for Fantasy managers looking to invest.

“When I’m preparing the next game I always try to look for the way and choose the players that will be better for the game. I don’t think it’s the same or not the same. I like to start the week, I like to see all of the training sessions and after that, I try to decide and be fair with the work. I know I’m not fair with the work of all of the players because all of them deserve to play but if I choose the same XI it’s because it’s the best option at that moment.” – Javi Gracia

However, as was pointed out in the most recent episode of the Scoutcast, Watford have proven to be vulnerable down their left flank and to attacking headers this season. Therefore, it should be no surprise that right-winger Vietto had so much joy in the match. He had several chances down his side of the pitch and it was his cross which Mitrovic headed against the cross-bar in the second-half. It was also Vietto who provided the assist for Mitrovic’s equalising tap-in.

Accordingly, as Jose Holebas‘ (£4.8m) attacking returns continue to dry up, his overall Fantasy appeal diminished again in Gameweek 6. The aforementioned defensive vulnerabilities mean that Watford are still without a clean sheet since Gameweek 1. Holebas is now one yellow card away from suspension too, as is colleague Etienne Capoue (£5.0m). Both should keep their places for Gameweek 7 but owners of either should be wary of their disciplinary records.

“Capoue is always at a very high level for me. He’s an amazing player and he’s showing that in all of the games.” – Javi Gracia

Saturday’s draw at Fulham was a third successive blank for Watford midfielder Roberto Pereyra (£6.3m). His time as a Fantasy asset may be coming to an end considering that nine midfielders touched the ball in the penalty box more often than him during the last three matches.

However, there may still be some budget options among Watford’s ranks going forward. Striker Gray now has two goals in as many matches and Hughes registered his second attacking return of the campaign.

Fulham XI (4-3-3): Bettinelli; R Sessegnon, Chambers, Mawson (Odoi 45′), Fosu-Mensah; Seri, McDonald (Ayité 46′), Johansen (Zambo Anguissa 64′); Schürrle, Mitrović, Vietto.

Watford XI (4-4-2): Foster; Holebas, Kabasele, Cathcart, Janmaat; Pereyra (Sema 90′), Capoue, Doucouré, Hughes (Kiko Femenia 70′); Deeney, Gray (Success 80′).

Burnley 4-0 Bournemouth

Goals: Matej Vydra (£5.9m), Aaron Lennon (£5.0m), Ashley Barnes x2 (£5.7m)

Assists: Lennon, Ashley Westwood (£4.5m), Johann Berg Gudmundsson x2 (£5.9m)

While it is largely agreed that 4-0 was not a fair reflection of this meeting at Turf Moor, Sean Dyche at least believes Burnley are getting back to their best. The ruthless manner with which they dispatched the Cherries certainly suggests they are on their way there. Cardiff and Huddersfield are Burnley’s next two opponents which could open up an opportunity for investing in Fantasy differentials among their ranks.

“Mentally it was more like it, physically definitely, the control of certain parts of the game, particularly first half, and then the resilient nature of the sides I’ve worked with. It was pleasing for many different reasons, but it’s just a start. It’s where we want to be, winning games. The players have had a lot on this season, they’ve done well to see through that and this week to see through the noise.” – Sean Dyche

It is still difficult to pinpoint a steady source of goals from the forward options at Burnley. In fact, the situation was further complicated by Matej Vydra (£5.9m) scoring on his first Premier League start for the club. He has been introduced into the mix with Sam Vokes (£5.3m), Chris Wood (£6.4m) and Ashley Barnes (£5.7m) already used in rotation with each other. It was the Welshman who started on Saturday while both Wood and Barnes featured as second-half substitutes, the latter scoring a brace.

“[Vydra was] really pleasing, he nicked one the other week and he nicks one again. He was on the spot and nice and alive to it. He’ll get fitter, he’ll get more used to what we do. Vokesy was good again, the two subs Woody and Barnesy were very effective and that’s an important factor in our time at Burnley.” – Sean Dyche

Aaron Lennon (£5.0m) was heavily involved in the goals netting one and assisting another. The local press declared it his best performance since signing for Burnley. However, it’s hard to suggest he will register another double-figure haul given that Gameweek 6 saw him find the net for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

“It’s been praying on my mind to be honest. I should score more. I’ve had few chances this season but it is great to get the goal,” Lennon said after sliding home Johann Berg Gudmundsson’s cross. If you are playing every game you want to aim for double figures. But for me getting assists is just as important. I love setting up the other lads as well. It makes my day if the other lads score as well so if I can put one on the plate for anyone it is just as important for me.” – Aaron Lennon

Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£5.9m) remains the go-to option if Burnley are to be trusted for goals going forward. He is a very sure starter and is central to attacking returns for them. He now has 12 assists for the Clarets in the Premier League, seven more than any other player.

There was another start in goal for £4.5m custodian Joe Hart. He has now stood between the sticks for every Premier League match so far. Against Bournemouth he made six high quality saves to secure the clean sheet and one bonus for a nine-point haul. Unfortunately, there has still been no update on how much of a hold Hart has on his place, with Tom Heaton (£4.9m) having played in the Europa League. With Cardiff and Huddersfield up next for the Clarets, some defensive cover could be useful and currently, Hart looks the best option. Either him or Charlie Taylor (£4.4m) who has started the last three in Ward’s place.

Elsewhere, there were some interesting changes in personnel. Jeff Hendrick (£5.5m) has largely been ever-present for Burnley this season while Stephen Ward (£4.8m) was passed fit for Gameweek 6 after sustaining an injury earlier in the season. However, the former was an unused substitute while Ward was not even in the matchday squad.

“Stephen Ward is out of the side for no other reason that we need those bits extra on the bench. It’s amazing Jeff Hendrick even misses out, but the team I felt needed what it needed, but I’ve felt Jeff has been one of the better players out of our group.” – Sean Dyche

As we already mentioned, the scoreline of this match did not reflect the performance. Bournemouth certainly did not play like a team that should have lost 4-0. The Cherries were slightly better than their hosts in a largely even first-half and dominated the second-half. They had 63% possession, registered 19 shots to Burnley’s 12, had the same number of shots on target, recorded eight corners to three and six fouls to 17. Bournemouth simply fell apart conceding two quick-fire goals before half-time and were hit on the counter in the second-half.

“We had them penned in at 2-0 and we were one goal from changing the entire mood of the game but we never got that goal and conceded two on the break. We’re very disappointed to concede four. That didn’t look on the cards early in game. We knew coming here that we’d have to defend crosses and set-plays well and we didn’t do that.” – Eddie Howe

Ryan Fraser (£5.7m) came into Gameweek 6 as the most-signed player after his 18-point haul against Leicester last week – but he scored just two points at Turf Moor. However, his new owners should not be too disappointed as the Scottish winger still had plenty of opportunities. In fact, no player fired off more shots in the match than Fraser, who was level with David Brooks (£5.0m) on four. Those numbers suggest patience is required with the midfielder.

The more disappointing performance came from striker Callum Wilson (£6.3m). He touched the ball just twice in the penalty area which is much lower than his average for the season thus far. Furthermore, he did not register a single shot on goal in the game and was replaced by a returning Junior Stanislas (£6.0m) in the 68th minute.

Despite registering promising defensive underlying statistics so far this season, there was still a wait for a second Bournemouth clean sheet. In fact, the Cherries have now conceded in all but one of their last 15 away league matches. They have leaked 30 goals in those matches.

There was potential surrounding new signing Diego Rico (£4.5m) after his introduction in Gameweek 4. He was involved in set pieces and showed great attacking threat as the replacement for stalwart Charlie Daniels (£4.3m). However, he was substituted at half-time on Saturday afternoon, replaced by the more experienced Simon Francis (£4.4m) with Bournemouth two goals down.

Burnley XI (4-4-1-1): Hart; Taylor, Mee, Tarkowski, Lowton; Lennon, Cork, Westwood, Gudmundsson; Vydra (Wood 60′); Vokes (Barnes 69′).

Bournemouth XI (4-4-2): Begovic; Rico (Francis 45′), Aké, Cook, A Smith (Defoe 78′); Fraser, Surman, Lerma, Brooks; King, Wilson (Stanislas 68′).

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