Our regular “frisk” of the Premier League fixture list from a Fantasy perspective returns ahead of Gameweek 13.
In this feature, we assess the top-flight clubs with the strongest and weakest runs of league matches over the coming weeks and offer our thoughts on the stand-out Fantasy assets from each of the sides discussed.
Although our primary focus will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead, we will scrutinise the long-term fixtures beyond that point where relevant.
The Strong
Newcastle United
Next six: bur, WHU, eve, WOL, hud, FUL
Possible turning point: liv (Gameweek 19)
As has been the case for some time, Newcastle United sit at the top of our Season Ticker between now and Christmas.
The Magpies face Burnley, Huddersfield Town and Fulham in their next half-dozen Premier League fixtures, while also welcoming West Ham United and Wolves to St. James’ Park.
A trip to Goodison Park in Gameweek 15 looks to be their trickiest test on paper until Boxing Day.
From a defensive perspective, Burnley, Wolves, Huddersfield and Fulham are scoring at a rate of one goal per match or worse, so perhaps offer owners of Newcastle’s defensive options some hope of a clean sheet or two before the fixture turn in Gameweek 19.
Burnley and Huddersfield indeed rank 19th and 20th for big chances created this season, while those two clubs plus Fulham sit in the bottom four for shots in the box attempted.
These three teams, along with West Ham, lie in the bottom eight for shots on target recorded, too.
Wolves have the worst goal conversion rate in the division on the road, though from a counterpoint rank third and fifth for attempts on goal and shots on target in away fixtures this season.
Fitness concerns dog Jamaal Lascelles (£4.8m) and Paul Dummett (£4.4m), so DeAndre Yedlin (£4.5m) – who started all four of Newcastle’s fixtures over the Christmas period last season – and Federico Fernandez (£4.4m) look the safest and cheapest routes into the United backline in the coming weeks.
Salomon Rondon (£5.7m) turned heads with a brace in Gameweek 12, though it should be noted that the on-loan West Bromwich Albion striker hasn’t reached double figures in any of his previous three seasons as a Premier League player.
There is cause for optimism for the few Fantasy managers investing in Rondon or another Newcastle midfielder/forward, though, with the league’s two worst defences (Burnley and Fulham) bookending this run of fixtures. Those two clubs have conceded more shots on target and big chances than any other side in the division and have shipped a combined 56 goals in 24 league matches.
Fulham have yet to keep a clean sheet, while West Ham have recorded only one shut-out this season.
The Hammers indeed rank 18th for shots on target conceded and joint-16th for big chances conceded.
Everton and Huddersfield’s defences have tightened up recently, however, while Wolves rank third for fewest big chances conceded all season.
West Ham United
Next six: MCI, new, CAR, CRY, ful, WAT
And then: sou, bur, BHA
Possible turning point: ARS (Gameweek 22)
West Ham just have a home fixture against Manchester City to get out of the way before they soar to the top of our Season Ticker, with a clear run of “blue/green” (depending on which ticker you use) fixtures until mid-January after that match.
Marko Arnautovic (£7.1m) sits in more than one in five Fantasy Premier League teams and is unsurprisingly West Ham’s most widely selected FPL asset.
Despite the obvious concerns around his ongoing knee problem and his ability to play more than one match in a week coming into the packed Christmas period, the Austrian remains an attractive option for this enticing-looking run of fixtures.
In the next ten Gameweeks, the Hammers face eight of the Premier League teams who sit in the bottom half of the table for big chances conceded.
Six of their next nine matches are against sides who all lie in the bottom six for shots in the box conceded, too.
Felipe Anderson (£6.9m) has three goals in the last two matches and could come into Fantasy managers’ thoughts.
West Ham’s defence has been something of a disappointment this campaign, with only Fulham racking up fewer clean sheets than Manuel Pellegrini’s side (one).
Lukasz Fabianski‘s (£4.5m) save count and Fabian Balbuena‘s (£4.4m) goal threat mark them out as stand-out routes into the Hammers’ backline, but shut-outs have been few and far between.
That rate of clean sheets may improve over the coming weeks and months, however, with matches against Burnley, Brighton, Fulham, Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Cardiff – all of whom sit in the bottom eight for shots on target – to come before Gameweek 22.
Those same six sides sit in the bottom seven for big chances created.
Southampton, meanwhile, have the worst goal conversion rate in the Premier League and have failed to score in six of their 12 fixtures.
Manchester United
Next six: CRY, sou, ARS, FUL, liv, car
And then: HUD, BOU, new
Possible turning point: tot (Gameweek 22)
Anthony Martial‘s (£7.6m) form has attracted legions of new admirers in the Fantasy community over the past five Gameweeks and now the Frenchman has the fixtures to go with it.
The matches against Arsenal and Liverpool in Gameweeks 15 and 17 are potentially tricky, but the Gunners – like United themselves – are far from watertight at the back and rank in the bottom half of the table for big chances conceded and shots on target conceded.
The Red Devils’ matches are particularly enticing from Gameweek 18 onwards, and although we have marked down the trip to Spurs as the “turning point” for their fixtures, in reality, their games continue to appeal well after that point.
For those interested in Martial or perhaps Paul Pogba (£8.0m), Southampton, Fulham and Cardiff rank in the bottom seven of the Premier League for goals, shots on target and big chances conceded this season.
Crystal Palace’s underlying defensive statistics aren’t too bad in comparison, but it’s now seven matches since they last recorded a clean sheet and the Eagles have conceded at least two goals in each of their last three away games in the league.
United’s defensive record this season doesn’t really incentivise investment in their backline – Jose Mourinho’s troops have recorded just one clean sheet in 12 matches and none at Old Trafford.
The Red Devils’ underlying statistics are also concerning, ranking in the bottom eight of the table for big chances and shots on target conceded.
The upcoming matches against Crystal Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Cardiff and Huddersfield could kick-start a defensive revival, with all five of those clubs sitting in the bottom half of the table for goals scored, goal conversion rate and shots on target.
Also Consider
We’re into the final four Gameweeks of Brighton and Hove Albion‘s favourable run (LEI, hud, CRY, bur), with the Seagulls’ fixtures stiffening sharply from Gameweek 16 onwards.
Mathew Ryan (£4.6m), Shane Duffy (£4.7m) and especially Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) have performed admirably for their owners since Gameweek 8 and there may still be life in these budget assets yet, with Huddersfield, Crystal Palace and Burnley – who sit in the bottom four for big chances created – to come before their match against Chelsea in mid-December.
Even Leicester City’s goal threat has diminished in recent weeks, with the Foxes not scoring more than one goal in a league game since Gameweek 7 and blanking against a porous Burnley backline a fortnight ago.
Glenn Murray (£6.6m), who very much becomes a rotation risk around the festive period, now has four matches against teams who are conceding at a rate of 1.33 goals per match or worse, although from an underlying statistics perspective Leicester, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace are performing reasonably well.
The Gameweek 15 match against Burnley, who have conceded the most big chances in the division, will surely be the last hurrah for any remaining attacking Brighton assets in our Fantasy teams.
Huddersfield Town face Wolves, Bournemouth and Arsenal away in fairly unappealing fixtures in the next four Gameweeks, but around those tricky away trips are very appealing home matches against Brighton, Newcastle and Southampton – three teams who sit in the bottom half of the table for shots on target and who are scoring at a rate of less than a goal a game away from home.
Those three clubs have all failed to score in three away fixtures this season, though of course, the Terriers have only found the back of the net on two occasions themselves in seven matches at the John Smith’s Stadium.
Only five clubs have allowed fewer big chances than Huddersfield at home this season.
Manchester City‘s upcoming run of matches could hardly be described as straightforward, but the reigning champions only face one of the “big six” in their forthcoming eight fixtures (whu, BOU, wat, che, EVE, CRY, lei, sou) and certainly warrant a mention.
Only three of those eight games are at home and the Citizens also face potentially tricky away matches at Watford, Chelsea and Leicester, but such is their form that they have the capability of swatting aside the opposition in fixtures that would prove problematic to mere mortals.
It should be noted, though, that all four opponents in Gameweeks 14-17 (plus Leicester) sit in the top half of the table for fewest shots on target and big chances conceded.
Arsenal have a tricky run of games in the next three Gameweeks (bou, TOT, mun) but their fixtures ease considerably (HUD, sou, BUR, bha) after this point – we’ll cover the Gunners in more detail in our next “frisk” in a fortnight’s time.
The same goes for Spurs (CHE, ars, SOU, lei, BUR, eve), who are one of the main beneficiaries of the Gameweek 15 fixture swing.
The Weak
Everton
Next six: CAR, liv, NEW, WAT, mci, TOT
Possible turning point: bur (Gameweek 19)
Such is the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of Everton’s fixtures over the next six Gameweeks that the Toffees could easily fit into both the “strong” and “weak” categories of this article.
At worst it’s a mixed bag for the Merseysiders and in the next four matches, no-one would consider their run to be unattractive, with Cardiff, Newcastle and Watford all to come at Goodison Park.
No Premier League club faces “big six” opposition over the next half-dozen Gameweeks on more occasions than Marco Silva’s side, however, a run of games that includes a Merseyside derby at Anfield, a trip to the Etihad and the visit of Spurs.
Watford, too, could potentially frustrate the Toffees: the Hornets are ranked seventh or better for fewest shots on target, big chances and shots in the box conceded this season.
Only three clubs have allowed fewer big chances than Spurs, two of which happen to be Liverpool and Manchester City.
At the other end, City, Liverpool, Spurs and Watford all sit in the top six for big chances created this season, with all bar the Hornets doing likewise for shots on target and attempts in the box.
On the positive side, for those thinking about acquiring Lucas Digne (£4.8m) or Michael Keane (£5.0m), no two clubs have scored fewer goals on their travels than Newcastle (three) and Cardiff (two) this season.
The Magpies and the Bluebirds have also recorded the fewest number of shots in the box on their travels.
Factoring in all 12 Premier League matches, Neil Warnock and Rafael Benitez’s are also among the five clubs who have conceded the most “big chances” in 2018/19 – music to the ears of Richarlison‘s (£6.9m) owners.
Bournemouth
Next six: ARS, mci, HUD, LIV, wol, BHA
And then: tot, mun
Possible turning point: WAT (Gameweek 21)
The Cherries face five meetings with “big six” sides before New Year’s Day as well as a trip to Wolves and have arguably the toughest medium-term run of fixtures of any Premier League side.
Home matches against Brighton and Huddersfield are shining lights amid the gloom, however, while Arsenal and Manchester United – as we have discussed above – have not convinced from a defensive point of view this season.
The main interest in Bournemouth’s assets this season has been in midfield and attack, with Ryan Fraser (£6.2m) and Callum Wilson (£6.8m) owned by over 26% and 36% of FPL managers respectively.
Manchester City, Liverpool and Wolves, however, are the three meanest defences in the division in terms of conceding big chances, while only three clubs have allowed fewer clear-cut opportunities than Huddersfield over the last six Gameweeks.
If anyone can breach those defences, it’s Eddie Howe’s side.
Only City have created more big chances than Bournemouth this season, while the Cherries sit fifth for shots in the box – albeit behind three clubs who they face between now and Gameweek 19.
Also Consider
Watford (LIV, lei, MCI, eve, CAR, whu, CHE) have three meetings against “big six” sides at Vicarage Road in the next seven Gameweeks, as well as potentially tricky trips to Leicester, Everton and West Ham.
Five of those clubs (the exception being West Ham) sit in the top half of the table for fewest big chances and shots in the box conceded, which may persuade those Fantasy managers who own the likes of Roberto Pereyra (£6.4m) and Isaac Success (£4.6m) to cash in their Hornets assets.
At the other end of the pitch, that quintet of aforementioned teams also rank in the top ten for shots on target and big chances created.
Much like Everton, Burnley (NEW, cry, LIV, BHA, tot, ars) have an up-and-down schedule over the next half-dozen games.
Home encounters with Newcastle and Brighton, as well as a trip to Crystal Palace, certainly appeal, but matches against Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal before Christmas very much do not.
While Johann Berg Gudmundsson‘s (£6.0m) owners will relish those home meetings with Newcastle and Brighton – the two sides who have conceded the most attempts from set plays this season – the fixtures around the visit of Chris Hughton’s side in Gameweek 16 are particularly grim.
The Clarets have conceded more shots on target and big chances than any Premier League side this season and in Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal they face three of the six teams who have racked up the most attempts on target in the division this campaign.
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