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Wisdom of The Crowd: Gameweek 26

Each week we will be reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).  And don’t forget there is £50,000 in prize money on offer every week.

THE CONCEPT

We must all make predictions about how each match will go when deciding on our fantasy team selection, predicting where the goals will be scored, which teams are most likely to keep a clean sheet and so on.  If we aggregate the predictions of thousands of football fans playing the Premier League Predictor game on Superbru, any bias should be ironed out, and the collective knowledge will produce more accurate predictions that we can make on our own.

We tested this last season by taking the average community predictions, and entering them into the game as a user called Mr Crowd Wisdom.  That user finished in 20th place out of 481 people in the Fantasy Football Scout league – a highly knowledgeable group – and also beat 98% of other people on the global leaderboard.

We’ll follow the average picks again this season and hopefully it will provide another reference point for your fantasy team selections.

GAMEWEEK 25 REVIEW

It was another green arrow for Mr Crowd Wisdom last week, with 8 correct predictions beating the community average of 6.11 out of 11.  These included 1 Exact score (Burnley 1-1 Southampton), and 6 Close picks.

GAMEWEEK 26 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW26:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Liverpool sit top of the Predicted Goals chart this weekend, with a kind home tie against Bournemouth, and it’s no surprise to see Mo Salah as the clear favourite in the Captain Poll.

Man United and Arsenal are not far behind them though, which could bring Paul Pogba, Marcus Rashford, and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang into contention.

Arsenal are predicted to keep a clean sheet, with Man United and Liverpool also expected to be tight at the back.  Wolves, Southampton and Brighton appear to offer the best budget options at the back this week.

Here are the picks we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Fulham 1 – 2 Man United
Crystal Palace 1 – 1 West Ham
Huddersfield 0 – 2 Arsenal
Liverpool 2 – 1 Bournemouth
Southampton 1 – 1 Cardiff
Watford 1 – 1 Everton
Brighton 1 – 1 Burnley
Tottenham 2 – 1 Leicester
Man City 2 – 1 Chelsea
Wolves 2 – 1 Newcastle

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13 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Sulk
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 20 hours ago

    I hate having two FT and not wanting to make a transfer. Just done Firmino (My only real differential from the template) to Rondon to save funds. Awaiting Firmino hatty now.

    1. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      14 days, 19 hours ago

      Yeah think that Firmino move could have waited till next week. Could bang this week.

  2. pjomara
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 20 hours ago

    I've always thought wisdom of the crowd was a underused concept from when I used to run the Guess The No. Of Xs In The Jar stall at my local Sale Of Work (Sale Of Work is Irish equivalent of a fête) where X has been sweets, crayons and corks and the actual answer has always been within 3 of either the mean or the median of the guesses.

    However I don't think it's as accurate for sports predictions as people will just be biased towards the favourite and while going with the favourites, odds wise, will put you in a good position in predictor competitions, I find the winner will always be someone who did a few longshot predictions along the way.

    1. Reedy
      • 8 Years
      14 days, 17 hours ago

      I don't think you're wrong here, but I do think this approach has its place (just not as a standalone system). Certain popular teams' odds get inflated by the Bookies too, and I wouldn't want to rely solely on them either.

      But the true 'Wisdom of the Crowd' approach, as championed by Nate Silver in 'The Signal and the Noise', would see us aggregate the predictions of several different systems to obtain a set that is (hopefully) better than any one contributing system.

      I think this approach shows real promise, and this article could be a key ingredient.

      1. Reedy
        • 8 Years
        14 days, 17 hours ago

        And another thing it does is tell you what your average opponent expects the outcomes to be; which could be helpful if you want to 'know your enemy'.

  3. Reedy
    • 8 Years
    14 days, 17 hours ago

    Thanks again, Hutch! 🙂

  4. MTPockets
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    14 days, 15 hours ago

    Cheers

  5. MrFrodo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    14 days, 15 hours ago

    Hi guys, Im finding myself in a strange position this week in that I’m relativity happy with my team and I’ve got 2 transfers. I’m pondering whether I should move on Sterling before his blank or replace Richardson (annoyingly I’m 0.1 out from being able to do a straight swap to Son).

    Fabianski
    Bednarek, Robertson, Doherty
    Pogba, Richarlison, Sterling, Salah (C)
    Firmino, Rashford, Jiménez
    Bench: Button, Wan-Bissaka, Digne, Camarasa

    What changes would you make?

    1. Smell the Lavender
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      14 days, 13 hours ago

      I'm in the same position with 0.5 INB (see below).
      Will probably update a bench player, looking ahead to GW27/28. Man C players are so risky - that could bite you either way. You could downgrade Sterling for a player with better fixtures and get Son in for Richarlison. His form and fixtures aren't great but I love a striker against his former club so I would be tempted to hold. Surely Son is a better option though.

  6. Smell the Lavender
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    14 days, 13 hours ago

    Any advice?

    Patricio
    Robertson - Doherty - Kolasinac
    Pogba - Martial - Salah(c) - F. Anderson
    Rashford - Aubameyang - Firmino

    Foster - AWB - Rice - McNeil

    2FT. Will use 0 or 1 transfers. £0.5m INB.
    Replace McNeil?

    1. OleGGMU
        7 days, 17 hours ago

        I'd say keep McNeil, really cheap(4.4), should start most games and is good going forward, Id say drop only if you want to save like a 0.2 and get puncheon (4.2), if you had 0.6 and Brooks was available he'd be a solid upgrade

        Looking at your team, I'd say save the free transfer and monitor Martial's knock

        1. Smell the Lavender
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          7 days, 13 hours ago

          Thanks so much but this was post for last GW.
          Appreciate the advice on McNeil, I think I will keep him until WC/FH. Puncheon is worth noting too, thanks for the tip.
          Martial did well in the end!

    2. OleGGMU
        7 days, 17 hours ago

        Foster , Speroni
        AWB, Doherty, Pereirra, Holebas, Simpson
        Son, Salah, Mane, McNeil, Jota
        Lacaz, Aguero, Jiminez
        0.2 ITB

        Thoughts lads?

        considering a -4 to switch lacaz to barnes to free up cash for a midfield upgrade of Jota to Pogba and cash to sort out simpson and speroni for perhaps Bednarek and Boruc