The FPL Digest: Is Pogba worth buying for Gameweeks 37 and 38?

Our regular analysis of a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the previous weekend’s matches returns ahead of Gameweek 37.

It’s a case of form versus fixtures as we examine Paul Pogba‘s credentials for the season run-in.

West Ham United secured their first away win in 2019 on Saturday, meanwhile, and now have two semi-appealing fixtures to end their campaign. The Hammers’ eye-catching victory over Spurs is assessed.

We also delve into the stats to see if we can expect a goal-fest in Gameweek 38.

The Player – Paul Pogba

Paul Pogba (£8.5m) blanked for the seventh occasion in eight Premier League matches on Sunday as Manchester United were held to a 1-1 draw by Chelsea.

The Frenchman averages only 3.3 FPL points per match over his last ten league starts and that figure even takes into account his 15-point haul against West Ham United in Gameweek 34.

Despite this, Pogba is currently the fourth-most-bought FPL midfielder of Gameweek 37.

He also happens to the most-sold player in his position since last Friday’s deadline passed.

The primary reason for the former Juventus star’s spike in popularity will perhaps be less to do with Pogba himself and more about who United play next.

The Red Devils face relegated Huddersfield Town in Gameweek 37 and then round off their up-and-down Premier League campaign by hosting Cardiff City, who could also be mathematically consigned to the Championship by May 12.

The Bluebirds have lost all 11 of their meetings with “big six” clubs this season, conceding 33 goals in the process.

Jan Siewert’s side have also yet to register a point against the top half-dozen clubs and have shipped 35 goals in their 11 Premier League matches against this elite group of teams in 2018/19.

Huddersfield and Cardiff have the worst and joint-second-worst records for conceding big chances in their last six matches, too.

While both teams are more than capable of conceding from open play, it’s their tendency to give away penalties that catches the eye: the Terriers and the Bluebirds have conceded 15 spot-kicks between them this season, with only Brighton having a worse record than Huddersfield in the top flight.

No team has been awarded more spot-kicks than Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s troops this season, with Pogba – United’s chief penalty-taker – having taken ten of his team’s dozen efforts from 12 yards.

At a time of the season when rotation is rife and four of the “big six” are still competing in Europe, Pogba – whose United side have only the Premier League to focus on – offers security of starts: the France international has started every single league game under Solskjaer, lasting 90 minutes in all bar one of them.

A win over Huddersfield would keep alive United’s faint hopes of a top-four place and they would also need to go for the jugular against their next two opponents in order to significantly improve their goal difference, should that come into play (it may well do, with Chelsea away at in-form Leicester in Gameweek 38).

It is easy to see why managers are deserting Pogba in their droves, though.

The Frenchman was the most-sold player of Gameweek 36 and, at the time of writing, had been transferred out by a further 60,000 FPL managers as we head towards Friday’s deadline.

Pogba hasn’t scored from open play in almost three months and, since the 3-0 win over Fulham in early-February, his underlying stats have taken a tumble.

Comparing Pogba’s last ten matches (two goals, one assist) under Solksjaer to his first nine (eight goals, six assists), the French midfielder has seen his rate of attempts on goal, shots in the box and efforts target drop by more than 50%.

His rate of touches in the penalty box has also dropped from 4.4 to 2.6 per game.

Pogba’s rate of key passes has also deteriorated, although not quite to the same degree: the Frenchman is creating a chance every 56 minutes in his last ten league starts compared to one every 44 minutes from Gameweeks 18-26.

There are a number of factors why this has happened – a United injury crisis, a trickier run of fixtures and questions over player attitude – but Pogba’s reversion to a deeper role amid Solskjaer’s constant tinkering has undoubtedly damaged his goal potential.

Those backing Pogba for a return to form in Gameweeks 37 and 38 will be largely relying on the weaknesses of Cardiff and Huddersfield as much as anything else and – a bit like the case with Luka Milivojevic (£6.4m) owners – rolling the dice on the offchance United are awarded a penalty or two.

One final thought to leave you with: Pogba delivered two goals, three assists and five bonus points in the reverse fixtures against his next two opponents back in December.

The Team – West Ham United

West Ham’s 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday afternoon was richly deserved.

Defensively solid throughout and showing attacking ambition after the break, Manuel Pellegrini’s side were effective on the counter-attack and a backline led by the superb Issa Diop (£4.2m) weren’t particularly stretched by the Lilywhites.

This rare away-day success came after steady improvement in performances during April.

A positive second-half showing against Chelsea in Gameweek 33 was followed by an excellent display in defeat at Old Trafford a week later, while the Hammers were only a stoppage-time goal away from beating in-form Leicester in Gameweek 35.

Some of their recent stats don’t make for great reading: only two clubs have created fewer big chances than West Ham in their last four matches, while just five teams have allowed more of those clear-cut opportunities over the same period.

Consideration has to be given to the calibre of opposition, however, and West Ham sat bottom of our Season Ticker in Gameweeks 33 to 36.

The Hammers indeed deserve some credit for ranking joint-10th for shots on target and joint-11th for shots in the box over the last four matches, despite facing Chelsea, United, Leicester and Spurs.

The question now is whether Pellegrini’s side can sustain their momentum in Gameweeks 37 and 38, not just because there is little left to play for but also because they have a tendency to turn in limp displays against the also-rans of the Premier League.

The Hammers have made a habit of performing well against the “big six” of late, having only conceded six goals in their last half-dozen meetings with these elite clubs and beating both north London teams – as well as holding Liverpool to a 1-1 draw – in the process.

Dismal 2-0 defeats to Cardiff and Everton are still fresh in the memory, though.

On paper, West Ham’s two remaining fixtures are perhaps among the most attractive in the division.

Southampton confirmed their Premier League safety last weekend and could potentially be there for the taking if there is any subconscious slacking off from the Saints, who looked vulnerable on the counter-attack in their 3-3 draw with Bournemouth – albeit without the services of key centre-backs Maya Yoshida (£4.1m) and Jannik Vestergaard (£4.6m).

Yoshida will likely be back this weekend, having only suffered from illness, but there remains the possibility of Ralph Hasenhuttl now experimenting with system and personnel ahead of next season and the Austrian has shown he is not averse to giving youth a chance since his appointment.

More intriguing still is the Gameweek 38 clash with Watford.

The Hornets face Manchester City in the FA Cup final six days after they host West Ham and there must be a temptation for Javi Gracia to preserve his first-choice starting XI for that game at Wembley – much as he did in Gameweek 30 ahead of the FA Cup quarter-finals.

Watford are also on the longest run of games in the top flight without a clean sheet (ten) and have allowed more “big chances” than any other Premier League team in 2019.

Whether any Fantasy managers would revisit assets from a club that has largely underwhelmed this calendar year is another question, of course, but a couple of West Ham’s midfielders have caught the eye of late.

Felipe Anderson (£6.9m) has looked much better in the last few weeks after an atrocious start to 2019 and the Brazilian now sits in the top ten among midfielders for shots in the box, overall attempts, penalty box touches and efforts on target in the last four Gameweeks.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has also scored in back-to-back league fixtures and, when midfielders are ranked by their last two matches, ranks joint-second for attempts on target and third for shots in the box.

The Talking Point – Final Day Goals

Just over 12% of the top 10,000 Fantasy Premier League managers and many more outside of this elite group have still to use their Triple Captain chip.

Those FPL bosses who still have the chip in hand have options in Gameweek 37, with Chelsea at home to Watford, Arsenal facing Brighton, Wolves entertaining Fulham, Manchester United away at Huddersfield and Manchester City playing host to an admittedly in-form Leicester City.

While there are perhaps not quite as many stand-out fixtures for those considering using the Triple Captain chip in Gameweek 38 (the two Manchester clubs involved in the pick of the matches), there is a widespread expectation among Fantasy managers that the final day will be something of a goal-fest.

There always seems to be at least one memorable, high-scoring game in Gameweek 38, from Spurs’ 5-4 and 7-1 wins over Leicester and Hull in 2017/18 and 2016/17 to Manchester United’s 5-5 draw with West Brom back in 2012/13.

We decided to dig a little deeper and look at the average number of goals scored on the final day of the season in previous campaigns to see if this belief is borne out in cold, hard stats:

Looking at the last seven campaigns, the average number of goals in Gameweek 38 has always been greater than the average over the rest of the season and, in six out of seven instances, also greater than the rate of goals in Gameweek 37.

Hull v Manchester United in 2014/15 was the only Gameweek 38 goalless draw in the last seven seasons.

A 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 might be the way to go for Fantasy managers in Gameweek 38 of 2018/19, then, with those assets likely to pick up attacking returns favoured over the players who keep them out at the other end.

Not that clean sheets don’t happen on the final day – there have been four or more Gameweek 38 shut-outs in six of the last seven seasons.

In five of the last seven campaigns, though, the number of clean sheets has dropped from the season average on the final day:

A Triple Captain pick should obviously be judged on a fixture’s merits regardless of Gameweek (see Liverpool v Huddersfield last week), so those dead set on using the chip on, for example, Eden Hazard (£10.9m) at home to Watford next Monday shouldn’t be dissuaded by the figures above.

For those still umm-ing and ahh-ing, though, Gameweek 38 generally promises goals and plenty of them.