Spot the Differential

Jesus allows FPL managers to exploit Aguero absence

Differentials continue to be the bedrock of success for Fantasy Premier League managers in 2019/20.

Even though Gameweek 14 saw the popular players deliver, the top three FPL points scorers of the round each had ownership of 3% or less.

It was also nice to see the column’s picks of Danny Ings (£6.1m) and Alexandre Lacazette (£9.3m) also joining in on the fun with more goals.

It just goes to shows that there is value still to be found in unexpected places. 

With that in mind, here are three differentials worth thinking about for Gameweek 14.

Gabriel Jesus

Aguero’s absence could unlock Jesus’ potential as a Fantasy asset

Price: £9.5m

Ownership: 1.9% 

GW14 Opponent: Newcastle United (away)

It’s not very often that Fantasy managers are treated to a striker priced at less than £10M becomes a credible starting option for the Premier League’s reigning champions. 

But with Sergio Aguero (£11.9m) out injured for a few games, the door into our teams looks to have been opened for Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m). 

The Brazilian has only scored three league goals this season and for the most part, he’s just made cameo substitute appearances but when he has played, he has delivered.

Jesus has started four matches this season and has attacking returns in each of them, while four of his five goal involvements in 2019/20 have come away from home. Both of those statistics bode well for Gameweeks 14 and 15 when Manchester City are on the road without Aguero, against Newcastle and Burnley.

The Magpies are without a clean sheet since Gameweek 8 while Burnley have so far conceded seven goals at home to opposition from last season’s top-six.

Some Fantasy managers might be put off by the fact that Jesus has only scored 10 times in his last 37 league appearances. However, he has still registered a Fantasy attacking return every 99 minutes during the same period. 

It certainly shows that Jesus has made the most of his limited game time.

Dele Alli 

Alli could seriously benefit from Mourinho’s arrival at Spurs

Price: £8.4m

Ownership: 1.4%

GW14 Opponent: Bournemouth (home)

Dele Alli (£8.4m) has made a fantastic start to life under Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur and can be a fantastic differential option moving forward.

Without a start in the first eight Gameweeks, the England international regained his regular spot in the team in Gameweek 9, before Mauricio Pochettino left, and since then he has three attacking returns in the Premier League.

Mourinho’s arrival has already had an impact on Spurs as Gameweek 13 saw them record a first away league win of the campaign with three goals in one match for the first time since September.

He then oversaw a dramatic comeback 4-2 win over Olympiakos on Tuesday night.

One of the players to have stood out in each of these matches was Alli who registered an assist against West Ham and scored Spurs’ first goal in the Champions League.

While we don’t have too much relevant data available just yet, and the likes of James Maddison (£7.6m) and Christian Pulisic (£7.5m) are currently cheaper, getting in on Alli now could be a rewarding move.

Tottenham as a whole, including Alli, have the potential to be reinvigorated under Mourinho for the foreseeable future, especially when considering they must get back to winning ways if they are to finish in a respectable position come May. 

Alli himself has been deployed in a number 10 role and, thus far, has looked comfortable and dangerous.

Tottenham have scored almost two goals per home league match this season and in Gameweek 14 host a Bournemouth team with just one clean sheet on the road in 2019/20.

Danny Ings 

Danny Ings cannot stop scoring but is still owned by less than 5%

Price: £6.1m

Ownership: 4.2%

GW14 Opponent: Watford (away)

We might sound like a broken record recommending Ings for a second week running but it’s hard to ignore him when he’s scoring goals. 

That said, the wider public are doing their best to overlook him because despite his recent form still just 4.2% own the Southampton striker.

Among all forwards over the last six Gameweeks, only Jamie Vardy (£9.7m) scored more goals than Ings. 

Players such as Teemu Pukki (£6.6m), Callum Wilson (£7.7m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have had far more touches in the penalty box than Ings and yet, since Gameweek 8 they’ve all failed to score while the former Burnley man has found the net four times.

It just goes to show that Ings hasn’t been wasteful with his limited goal-scoring opportunities of late and is even capable of scoring away from home at Arsenal and Manchester City.

Right now, there isn’t another striker in the same price bracket displaying the same kind of form as him.

Having said that, Southampton have only won two league game this season and it’s not a huge surprise that they’re currently found in 19th place on the back of pretty derisory home form. 

On the plus side, it’s clear that when they do score Ings’ has an important part to play – he has been their main forward driving outlet. 

After all, he has been involved with 54% of the Saints’ league goals since August. 

They now have a good run of upcoming games that they simply must win to avoid a relegation dog fight from the New Year. 

Up first is a Watford team currently short of some key defensive personnel. Craig Dawson (£4.8m), Christian Kabasele (£4.3m), Sebastian Prödl (£4.0m) and Daryl Janmaat (£4.4m) are all injured for Gameweek 14.

Nominated for ‘Best in Fantasy Football – Editorial’ at the Football Content Awards 2020

Which FPL assets are on set-piece duties at their clubs? 1

VOTE FOR FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT BY
CLICKING HERE.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £19.99. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £2.99.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

2,503 Comments Post a Comment
  1. BNMC
    • 1 Year
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Can this team still score well this week?

    Heaton
    Robbo Lundy Soy Rico
    Mane KDB Son Tielemans Cantwell
    Vardy(C)
    ---
    Ryan Mings Wickham Tammy

    I plan to have Mousset as my 3rd forward from next week.

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Ofcourse

  2. No Totti No Party
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Option A, just take a hit and start them, option B go wc play them and Lund on bench
    A: Martial and Lund -4
    B: Pulisic and Maddison + wc

  3. manu4life99
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Already used FT. G2G?

    Pope
    TAA Lund Soy Tomori
    Mane(vc) KDB Maddison Pulisic
    Vardy(C) Jiminez

    Heaton, Tammy*,Dend,Ota*

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      g2g

  4. Karan14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Choose:

    A) Son
    B) Pulisic

    Have Mount

    If I go Son I'll have exact money to do Mount to Pulisic for the midweek fixtures

    If I go Pulisic I'll have to look for someone else to replace Mount next week

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A

    2. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Son

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A

    4. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Then Son for sure

    5. The Pesci challenge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A

  5. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
    • 6 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    I've got both Kun and Tammy, bought Tammy at 7.3. What to do? Tempted for Kane or Jesus, along with Jim but not sure how long Tammy will be out. Any ideas?

    Pope
    Trent Soyboy Lundstram Tomori Rico
    Mane KDB Pulisic
    Kun Vardy Tammy

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      You can keep Tammy since you are covered with Pulisic. Kun can go for Kane. No need for Jesus imo.

    2. No Totti No Party
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Risk it imo, i doubt Tammy will take a part in the next three games

    3. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      I've got a very similar team. Done Agüero to Kane already and likely to do Abraham to Jimmy too.

    4. Lignja
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Had same, did Aguero, Mcginn, Mount to Jimenez, Pulisic, Son for -4 and left with 0.0m itb, my first early transfers this season...now ill keep Abraham to punish my self and play Kelly

    5. Wonderful Wizard Hazard
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Thanks guys. Will likely do the Kane move. Surprised Tammy is going to be out at all. He looked fine on the post match interview and didn't think it was much. Might be hard to get him back in.

  6. Halftime
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Normally i'd start Lundstram over Chambers but with Emery gone is Chambers a better option this week?

    1. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      No, he still plays for Arsenal.

    2. Joey Barton and Friends
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      They won’t improve defensively in 24 hours

    3. Amey
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Nope
      They are a bunch of Clowns those Defenders

      1. GreennRed
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Tell it like it is why don't you 🙂

  7. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Sorry for repost..

    A) do Hayden to pulisic for -4
    B) play rico then bring in Cahill next gameweek to cover likely Tammy absence

    1. Karan14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Thanks! Think it could pay off the hit personally!

    2. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A if you dont own other Che attacker. Those next two games are to hard to ignore and Tammy could miss both of them.

  8. Jon Snow
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    How does the WC look, G2G? Slightly revised from my earlier post (didn't know Tammy mostly likely out for 2 GWs.)

    Gazzaniga, Button
    Robbo, Soyuncu, Rico, Lund, 4.0 fodder
    Mane, KdB, Son, Pulisic, Dendonker
    Vardy, Jimenez, Ings

    A) Best GK under 4.6? Unsure about Gazza plus will how to shift in a few weeks when Lloris returns.
    B) Drop Tammy even if I lose 0.2m on him?

  9. allaboutthemagic
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy sterling out
    Jesus KDB in for a -4?

    Currently would have cantwell in for Tammy

  10. Amey
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy to Ings a great use of the FT right ??
    No £ itb
    Jimenez Vardy other strikers

    1. KingOllie
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      i got Ings, is great short term pick

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers mate 🙂

    2. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Think he's the best downgrade, for sure!

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers mate

  11. LewanGOALski
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy ➡

    A) Ings
    B) Mousset
    C) keep

    ?

    1. Halftime
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Depends if you have a good sub to play instead of him, if you do i'd keep

      1. LewanGOALski
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Lundstram this week and same midweek 😉

        I can play 4 at the back with:

        TAA - Soyu - Tomori - Lundy

    2. LewanGOALski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      or Ayew maybe..?

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      If bench is alright to cover then C

  12. GreennRed
    • 9 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Are the Greene King pubs the only pubs showing Amazon Prime games jn the UK? Not clear if pubs here might show them.

  13. Sturridge Wars
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Best Abraham replacement?

    Jiménez
    Mousset
    Ings

    1. Me Spurs
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Jimi

    2. No Totti No Party
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Jimmy if cash isnt important for next change

    3. Joey Barton and Friends
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      That’s what I’m wondering. Ings cheaper but Jiminez surely long term although he probably played last night

    4. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Actually Ings and save money

    5. ThisTimeNxtYrRodney
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Jimenez for me given next 3 fixtures.

  14. Gunner1290
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Who would you rather have going forward:

    A) Lacazette and Pulisic
    B) Kane and Traore/Grealish

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      kane and grealish

  15. Me Spurs
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Would u do tammy, Tielemans to ings, pulisic? Pulisic looks red hot at the mo

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Good moves

  16. Bobby Digital
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Play Lundstram (wol) or Jorginho (WHA)?

    1. Me Spurs
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Jorg

    2. Rainer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Attacking mid > DM.

    3. Tamagotchi Massacre
      • 6 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Lund never returns against good teams away and great teams at home

  17. Gudjohnsen
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Replacement for Abraham

    A. Get Vardy or Kane for a hit.
    B. Get Ings for free.

    1. Me Spurs
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      U need Vardy

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Save yourself the pain and bring in Vardy

  18. TheDragon
    • 2 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Lund or Soyuncu....
    Lund or Soyuncu....
    Lund or Soyuncu....
    ...
    ...
    ...
    Lund or Soyuncu.....

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Soyyyyyy

    2. ⱼₐᵣᵥᵢₛₕ
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Both will blank. Now go to bed.

    3. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      soy

  19. Weasel51
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Have 2 FT's

    A) Sterling + Greenwood >>> Pulisic + Vardy ( Keep Tammy and downgrade Mount next week)
    B) Sterling + Tammy >>> KDB + Vardy

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A
      B is sideways

      1. Weasel51
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        B has no city players though

  20. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    .Complete team transfers with (itb 21.6)

    A) def. (Soy lund taa kely, lowton to ..)
    - chilwel aurier baldock robo lovren
    B) Mid. (Mane son kdb dendo, mount to ..)
    - puli or keep mount
    C) fwd. (Vardy ings, tamy to ..)
    - boby jesus jimy laca bats ayew mouset or keep tamy for now

  21. Debauchy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Reminder - Context required , how can anyone give you the answer to an A or B question without you posting your team,
    Old git being grumpy again but really- seeing such questions season in and season out gets my goat 😆

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A
      😉

    2. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      This is known as the FFS ‘peak time’ paradox

      If you just post A or B you get responses but as you say they are pretty worthless without context.

      If you provide your team and some thinking along with an A or B you don’t get any replies at ‘peak times’ as your post is too long for people to bother reading

      1. DAVESAVES
        • 3 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        True

        1. F0oTBall GuRu
          • 1 Year
          11 months, 4 days ago

          still A

      2. Debauchy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Yeah I know there is that in peak times but we're not there yet , like I said old git getting grumpy

        1. TheDragon
          • 2 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          You are 100% right of course. When pages are slow there is actually some great stuff on here but at times like now it’s more entertainment than being of any use this place

          1. F0oTBall GuRu
            • 1 Year
            11 months, 4 days ago

            changing to B

            1. DAVESAVES
              • 3 Years
              11 months, 4 days ago

              Hey that’s not okay

            2. DAVESAVES
              • 3 Years
              11 months, 4 days ago

              I just did A

        2. DAVESAVES
          • 3 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          Everyone just got the news on Tammy.. we’re there...

        3. Debauchy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          11 months, 4 days ago

          but seriously no way I can give an honest answer without context, so how much value can one place on those that do give advice based on a simple A or B

          1. F0oTBall GuRu
            • 1 Year
            11 months, 4 days ago

            B

            1. Debauchy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              11 months, 4 days ago

              You sure lol

          2. DAVESAVES
            • 3 Years
            11 months, 4 days ago

            I know. I understand what you’re sayin.

            1. F0oTBall GuRu
              • 1 Year
              11 months, 4 days ago

              is there a option C

              1. Debauchy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                11 months, 4 days ago

                Yes , but context please

  22. nibirislam17
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Tammy > Ings for a hit? Subs are Lowton, Gulibert, Stephens. Thoughts?

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Subs.

  23. dshv
    • 3 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Hello everybody

    Pope
    Soy lund robbo
    Mane sterling mount perez
    Kane tammy vardy

    Doing tammy to jimenez for -4 or wait

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      do it ,wait for what
      tammy may miss 3 games

  24. jaguar shark
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Ok y’all:

    A. Tammy/Sterling to Jesus/Son
    B. Tammy/Sterling to Jesus/Pulisic
    C. Keep Tammy
    D. Keep both

    1. F0oTBall GuRu
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A looks tasty

    2. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      11 months, 4 days ago

      A if for free

  25. The Big Fella
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Gud ebenin. Planning a WC team to go with tonight. Currently on:

    Ryan/Button
    TAA, Robbo, Tomori, Lund, Rico
    Mane, Son, Pulisic, Maddison, Dendonker
    Laca, Vardy, Connolly
    0.4m ITB

    I am debating whether to:
    A) keep Tomori or switch to Soy. Also,
    B) could use the 0.4m to upgrade Dendonker. Also,
    C) with two Liverpool defenders and Fabinho out, maybe sell one? Good fixtures though.

    I am on a wildcard so I can do none or all of the above (or something else). All opinions are welcome!

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Wow, that team is incredible!

      1. The Big Fella
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Cheers mate. Cue another 30 point week (I did shite last weekend hence my WC) *facepalm*

        Would you change anything do you think?

    2. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Looks good, not convinced by front three bar Vardy. Lose one or both of TAA and Robertson because they cost too much for defenders not keeping cleansheets. Leicester or Sheffield U nited are better double defender picks. Freeing cash there will let you upgrade strikers, maybe for Ings, Mousset, Wesley.

      1. The Big Fella
        • 4 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Thanks for this! Great feedback. So......Everybody is looking at Jesus but I genuinely think Lacazette is the way to go. Lower ownership, great next few matches and I think he will play with Auba plus he goes into this nice run on the back of a brace last game for confidence.

        I thought this (about Liv defenders) too but Robbo is 3rd highest scoring defender which leaves TAA for the chop (I'd also make 0.1 out of him). However, three of the next four quite easy games are at home so I am really between a rock and a hard place. It isn't just the CSs but the potential goals and assists as well as set pieces that tempt me. I was considering keeping them until 18 then selling one. I am really torn about this and it is my hardest decision as Chilwell would be great and I would love Ings too......

  26. Rhodes your boat
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Thanks for your help guys as always, gtg?

    Pope
    Taa tomori soy Lund
    Mane kdb son pulisic
    Vardy(c) jimi

    Button dendo rico Abraham*

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 4 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Mane captain now 😉

  27. Strchld
    • 4 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Kane, Maddison and Pulisic
    Or
    Salah, Jimenez and Maddison/Pulisic

  28. Evasivo
    • 10 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    Bench one:

    A) Lowton
    B) McGinn

    1. TorresMagic™ - 48n69x
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      The one who won't start.

      1. Evasivo
        • 10 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        Which one's that?!

  29. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    I bought Abraham for 7.3, his price is now 8. Really torn on what to do! The other option is to play Rico

    1. Jon Snow
      • 5 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      I would just bench him, seeing as you'll most likely bring him back in

      1. TheDragon
        • 2 Years
        11 months, 4 days ago

        You know nothing Jon snow (but I agree)

    2. TheDragon
      • 2 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Well then you can afford a 0.1 drop with no impact so you can sleep on it

    3. HashAttack
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      Just sold him for 7.5 ... feels good - the TV above SV is only a loan, you have to pay it back at WC time anyway

  30. lilmessipran
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    11 months, 4 days ago

    A Boly to Aurier, -4 hit
    B start Mousset

    1. DAVESAVES
      • 3 Years
      11 months, 4 days ago

      B