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Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL – Part 2

This is part 2 of RichP_LFC’s series looking at his metric Fantasy Points Against. Part 1 can be found here,

Hello again. In my previous piece, I explained the metric I have been using in addition to the usual suspects (fixture tickers, xG etc) to aid my fantasy football decisions: FPA. This, when planned against the fixture calendar, can be a really useful tool when targeting players for upcoming weeks. As I’ve gone into more detail on that in part 1, lets jump straight in to our defender and goalkeeper choices!

Defenders

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2 3

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2 2

*Please note: Fixture tickers are not excluding any blanks yet*

Picks here could be:

SHU defenders
Liverpool defenders
Palace defenders
Newcastle/Arsenal defenders (punt)

Keepers

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2 1

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2

The usual candidates like Alisson, Mat Ryan, Dean Henderson of SHU and Ben Foster could be a shout, with Pickford being a potential punt.

We can also use Fantasy points scored, or Fantasy Points For (FPF) to have a look at the in form teams, potentially focussing on these players if possible.

Defenders

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Interestingly, Newcastle are third for FPF in defence. Combined with nice fixtures coming up, their back 4/5 are worth a look, maybe as a swap out for a Leicester asset, who have looked a bit ropey recently, despite still being in the top 5. Everton have two more nice fixtures before their fixtures turn, whereas Sheffield United and Liverpool have nice fixtures for the foreseeable. A caveat to this is that Sheffield United now have a blank gameweek in GW 28, so I wouldn’t potentially overload on those unless you have adequate cover for GW 28. Arsenal, mentioned above on the basis of their FPA fixture ticker, could now be considered an “avoid” as they’re in the bottom 5 for FPF, as well as now having a blank in GW28. Brighton may well be worth a punt.

So from our previous shortlist of:

Lundstram/SHU defenders (blank GW28)
Liverpool defenders
Palace defenders
Newcastle defenders

I’ll be adding Brighton defenders in, such as Lewis Dunk, and have removed Arsenal.

Goalkeepers

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2 5

Much like defenders, Dean Henderson of Sheffield United and Alisson of Liverpool would be the best choices here. Nick Pope has surged back up into the top 5 after 2 stellar performances, so he could also be under consideration. Ben Foster has both reasonable fixtures and the FPF to boot as well. However, this metric would ultimately rule Jordan Pickford out, as the Everton shot stopper is in the bottom 5 for FPF.

So with our FPA shortlist added to our FPF shortlist, our penultimate shortlist here would be:

Dean Henderson (blank GW28)
Alisson
Ben Foster
Mat Ryan

In part 1 of this analysis, I also explained that we can split all of this information into home and away points, to really drill down and try and find some interesting stats. Lets revisit those tables and I’ll recap on the findings below.

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The first thing I notice here is Southampton. They give up 4th least points overall away from home, yet they give up the MOST points overall at home. That is a stark contrast. Now this doesn’t automatically mean a shut out for Liverpool assets such as Mo Salah in GW25, but it is worth noting.

Liverpool, Leicester, Man City and Wolves all rank in the top 5 for least FPA both home and away, with Manchester United taking the last spot at home (Southampton take the 5th spot away as above). Bournemouth, Burnley and Norwich are in the top 5 for most FPA both home and away, with Watford and West Ham joining them for home fixtures. Newcastle and Manchester United make up the top 5 for most FPA allowed away from home.

Using Fantasy Points Against to excel in FPL - Part 2 6

Looking at FPF, you notice that whilst Everton are in the top 5 for FPF scoring at home, they’re in the bottom 5 away from home. Once again, this applies to Southampton, which is really interesting, and indicates that from an FPL point of view, their assets are likely to perform better away from home.

Norwich are in the bottom 5 both home and away, and the only team to feature in both for FPF.

Arsenal, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Southampton total the 5 at home, with Aston Villa, Everton, Manchester United and Watford making up the numbers away from home.

To conclude, I’m going to revaluate our picks that have made it through both the FPA fixture list and the FPF vs FPA fixture list against the home and away fixture tickers, to see if we really have some standout picks for the next few game weeks.

Defenders

Lundstram/SHU defenders (blank GW28)

CRY (A) – Palace are top 5 overall for FPA allowed to defenders and just outside the top 5 when they play at home
BOU (H) – Just outside the top 5 overall and The Cherries are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when they play away
BHA (H) – middling overall and middling away from home for FPA allowed to defenders
AVL (A) – BLANK
NOR (H) – top 5 overall and top overall for FPA allowed to defenders when playing away from home

Shef are in the top 5 overall, home and away for points scored by defenders

Liverpool defenders

SOU (H) – just outside the bottom 5 for FPA allowed to defenders based on overall FPA, and in the bottom 5 for FPA allowed away from home.
NOR (A) – this is classed as a top 5 fixture based on overall FPA but middling at home.
WHU (H) – this is classed as a top 5 fixture based on overall FPA and the Hammers are just outside the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when they play away from home.
WAT (A) – Top overall for FPA allowed to defenders, and also top for FPA allowed to defenders when they play at home.
BOU (H) – Bournemouth are just outside the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders and are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when playing away.

Liverpool are in the top 5 overall, home and away for points scored by defenders

Palace defenders

SHU (H) – Shef are middling overall for FPA allowed to defenders and middling when playing away
EVE (A) – Everton are middling overall but are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when playing at home
NEW (H) – Top 5 overall for FPA allowed to defenders and just outside the top 5 when playing away
BHA (A) – middling overall and middling when they play at home
WAT (H) – top 5 overall and also when playing away from home

Palace are near the bottom 5 overall, in the bottom 5 at home and middling away from home.

Newcastle defenders

NOR (H) – top 5 overall and top overall for FPA allowed to defenders when playing away from home
ARS (A) – bottom 5 overall and bottom 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when playing at home
CRY (A) – top 5 overall and just outside the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when playing at home
BUR (H) – Just outside the top 5 overall for FPA allowed to defenders and in the top 5 for FPA allowed when playing away from home
SOU (A) – Just outside the bottom 5 overall and middling for FPA allowed to defenders when playing at home

Newcastle are in the top 5 overall, home and away for points scored by defenders

Brighton defenders

WHU (A) – top 5 overall but middling at home
WAT (H) – top 5 both overall for FPA allowed to defenders and when playing away
SHU (A) – middling overall but Shef are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to defenders when play at home
CRY (H) – top 5 overall and just outside the top 5 when they play away
WOL (A) – bottom 5 both overall and when playing at home

Brighton are middling across the board for points scored by defenders

Goalkeepers

Dean Henderson

CRY (A) – Palace are top 5 overall for FPA allowed to keepers and just outside the top 5 when they play at home
BOU (H) – Just outside the top 5 overall and The Cherries are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to keepers when they play away
BHA (H) – just outside the top 5 overall and middling away from home for FPA allowed to keepers
AVL (A) – BLANK
NOR (H) – top 5 overall and top overall for FPA allowed to keepers when playing away from home

Shef are in the top 5 overall, top 5 at home and just outside the top 5 away from home.

Alisson

SOU (H) – middling for FPA allowed to keepers both overall and away from home
NOR (A) – top 5 for FPA allowed to keepers overall but middling when playing at home
WHU (H) – just outside the top 5 based on overall FPA and the Hammers are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to keepers when they play away from home.
WAT (A) – top 5 both overall for FPA allowed to defenders and when playing at home
BOU (H) – top 5 overall and The Cherries are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to keepers when they play away

Liverpool are in the top 5 overall, middling at home and in the top 5 away from home for points scored by keepers.

Ben Foster

EVE (H) – Just outside the top 5 overall but middling when the Toffees play away from home
BHA (A) – Just outside the top 5 both overall and when playing at home for FPA allowed to keepers
MUN (A) – top overall yet just above the bottom 5 when playing at home for FPA allowed to keepers
LIV (H) – bottom 5 both overall and when playing away, for FPA allowed to keepers
CRY (A) – Palace are top 5 overall for FPA allowed to keepers and just outside the top 5 when they play at home

Watford are in the top 5 overall and at home, but only just above the bottom 5 away from home.

Mat Ryan

WHU (A) – just outside the top 5 overall but middling at home
WAT (H) – top 5 overall for FPA allowed to keepers but middling when playing away
SHU (A) – middling overall but Shef are in the top 5 for FPA allowed to keepers when playing at home
CRY (H) – top 5 overall and just outside the top 5 when they play away
WOL (A) – bottom 5 both overall and when playing at home

Brighton are just outside the top 5 overall, middling at home, but in the top 5 away from home.

Conclusion and final shortlist for GW 24-29

So after analysing all of that FPA/FPF data, I’ll pick a few candidates who should do well between now and game week 29.

Goalkeepers:
Dean Henderson and Alisson the 2 standout picks for me.

Defenders:
I’ll avoid Liverpool and Sheffield United here to avoid the double up, so my pick here would be Newcastle defenders.
Lets see how these guys get on over the next 5 weeks! Remember, use this as part of a well balanced diet of numerous different statistics, rather than just using it as the holy grail. Let it help you make decisions or justify ideas, rather than placing all of your faith in it. It could be a very useful tool.

Note:
Was unable to get this sent out prior to GW25. So here are the current results from our shortlist:

Dean Henderson 10 points
Alisson 8 points

Newcastle defenders averaged 5.6 mins (Danny Rose came on for 11 mins, otherwise this would have been 6.75 points)

10 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 8 Years
    18 days, 10 hours ago

    Thank you for writing these Rich! An interesting insight from a different approach

    1. RichP_LFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      18 days, 10 hours ago

      Cheers Ted, thanks for your help as well. I’ll get some follow ups drafted in a couple of weeks to keep it going!

  2. Bare Foot United
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    18 days, 9 hours ago

    Again , awesome work !

    1. RichP_LFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      18 days, 3 hours ago

      Thanks mate!

  3. Zambian FPL Addict
    • 2 Years
    18 days, 8 hours ago

    SL Benfica

  4. Stejson
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    18 days, 6 hours ago

    An enjoyable pair of articles.
    Have you looked at excluding outliers? (E.g. Lei battering Sou)
    Also, have you considered adjusting for recent form? Maybe apply some decay rate to your totals so the older results count for less?

    1. RichP_LFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      18 days, 4 hours ago

      Thanks buddy, definitely plenty of different caveats we can look at! Thanks for reading!

  5. Twitter: @Ze_Austin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    17 days, 10 hours ago

    Well done there!

    Quite surprised S'oton defence didn't make the cut. But I guess that's because their stats have been much better than their actual returns anyway

  6. Don Van Vliet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    13 days, 12 hours ago

    Interesting approach. Certainly refreshing and revealing to switch the onus from points scored to points conceded.