Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Olson
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    PLAY UP POMPEY!

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      My saints supporting boss calls you lot skates. 😉

      1. Olson
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Standard scummer behaviour

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Yes he said you call them that.

    2. SouthCoastSaint
      • 9 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Awwww

  2. F4L
    • 6 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Agreed, looking to go big at the back soon, especially if Spurs shift to wing backs.

  3. Gazwaz80
    • 1 Year
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Hello

    1. Gazwaz80
      • 1 Year
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Bummer, thought I was first 🙂

  4. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 10 Years
    3 months, 14 days ago

    Start Son and risk a 10 minute cameo or start Lamptey

    1. Keep Calm and Play On
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      I'm starting Son

      1. Shineonme
        • 4 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Can't see son starting to be fair. If he does good luck to you.

    2. F4L
      • 6 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Start Son. Maureen is trolling

      1. The Gambler.
        • 11 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        ...us, by playing him in 90th minute

    3. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Risk it or sell him.

    4. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Start Son

    5. Lignja
      • 3 Years
      3 months, 14 days ago

      So there is chance Son play? What did i miss?

    6. shiraz
        3 months, 14 days ago

        I am starting son, and put saiss as my first sub.

    7. Will J 256
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      3 months, 14 days ago

      Best one week punt 9.0 and below?

      1. Will J 256
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Midfielder by the way!

        1. The Gambler.
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Barnes

      2. F4L
        • 6 Years
        3 months, 14 days ago

        Barnes/Willian

      3. Cheeto__Bandito
          3 months, 14 days ago

          foden

        • Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Mid JRod or forward Ings

        • Snooze ya lose
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Barnes, Mahrez, Mount?

      4. Cheeto__Bandito
          3 months, 14 days ago

          "Target west brom and fulham" thanks lads top advice

          1. Well you know, Triffic
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Hahaha

        • Cheeky Onion
          • 3 Years
          3 months, 14 days ago

          Best 4.5 defender?

          Already have Justin & KWP

          Thinking Holding

          1. Forever In Our Shadow
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Lamptey.

            1. Cheeky Onion
              • 3 Years
              3 months, 14 days ago

              Unfortunately 4.6 is too rich for my blood

          2. Lazaretti
            • 3 Years
            3 months, 14 days ago

            Taylor

        • Opie220
            3 months, 14 days ago

            1 Ings/Foden or
            2 Bamford/Mahrez

            1. Forever In Our Shadow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              3 months, 14 days ago

              1 all day.

              1. Opie220
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Cool I thought that

              2. TimoTime
                • 1 Year
                3 months, 14 days ago

                1 100%

                1. Opie220
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Thanks I'm having it

              3. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Ings or Richarlison on a WC?

                Zaha or Robbo?

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Ings.

                  1. Forever In Our Shadow
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Zaha

                    1. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                      • 11 Years
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      I really like Zaha

                2. TimoTime
                  • 1 Year
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Rich if no other Everton cover

                  Robbo

                  1. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                    • 11 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    I have DCL but not against double up

                    1. TimoTime
                      • 1 Year
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      I'd go Ings if you have DCL

                3. Pat Bonner
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Ings and robbo

                  1. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                    • 11 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Ings has only 1 good fixture in the next 4 so I am a little bit hesitant

                    1. TimoTime
                      • 1 Year
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      I feel like Ings might just be set and forget at this point

                      1. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                        • 11 Years
                        3 months, 14 days ago

                        too early to say that about ings imo

                        1. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                          • 11 Years
                          3 months, 14 days ago

                          looks like ings is winning. hmm...

                    2. Pipermaru
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 6 Years
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      I wouldn't expect Ings to score against Liverpool, maybe Manchester City, the rest is for the taking.

                      Ings and Robbo.

                    3. mirkomen77
                      • 4 Years
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      Don't see Wba Chelsea Villa Everton Newcastle defences that difficult to break and he is on penalties too

                4. RedAlpha10
                  • 1 Year
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Definitely Richarlison if fit

                5. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Ings
                  Rob

              4. TimoTime
                • 1 Year
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Bottomed old post:

                If Podence is still out, who should be first on bench?

                A) Dunne

                B) Burke

                C) Mitchell

                Currently on A

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  B. That’s what my Mrs has done anyway. She Usually nails the bench.

              5. Tmel
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Burke (ars) or Lamptey (eve) first sub?

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Lamptey

              6. HD7
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                WC team - how is she looking, mates?

                Mccarthy
                TAA Castagne Semedo Taylor
                Salah KDB Zaha
                Ings Jimi DCL

                Button Mendy Mitchell Stephens

                0.2 ITB if you have any better ideas:)

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Looking good. Captain Ings?

                  1. HD7
                    • 3 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Thanks.
                    I have been tinkering the team and didnt think a lot about the Captain. Salah is the favourite but any of the strikers and KDB can be a good idea

                2. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Not sure about zaha

                  1. HD7
                    • 3 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Elaborate please?
                    What I like is his incoming fixs and he is on pens

                3. Ericthegoat
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Castanga for Justin and use extra cash plus 0.2 for Pulisic rather than Zaha - think youve enough. Far better long term option. Justin should match Castagna - if he keeps his place.

              7. Greenbackbøøg…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Who are the pool players supposedly out with covid

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Thiargo

              8. Killitzer
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Evening all

                Mitrovic ➡️ Jiminez for a hit or just keep him. Other strikers are Werner and Ings.

                1. Whazza
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Do it. Will pay off straight away I think or at least in 2-3 gws

                2. Matt Sk
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  For free yes, for a hit no

                3. Super Squirrel
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Will you be more upset losing 4 points and gaining or losing Jimenez' points for not trading him in?

              9. Oggle22
                • 4 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Mccarthy
                TAA KWP Taylor Mitchell
                Salah KDB Bruno Rodriguez
                Martial Mitrovic

                Nyland Ceballos Saliba Davies

                A) Save FT
                B) Bruno and Martial to Sterling and Ings
                C) Jrod and Martial to zaha and Ings

                Cheers

                1. Ericthegoat
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  D) Ceballos to Soucek tbh and put him in for mitchell 3-4-3.

              10. SMOOTH
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                A. Foden Soucek Digne
                B. Ings Soucek 4.4 def
                C. Maupay Foden 4.4 def

                1. Super Squirrel
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  A

              11. RedWolf
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Risk Podence or just bench and play Pereira?

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Play pereira

                2. Super Squirrel
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Pereira looks good

                3. Party time
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Play Pereira

              12. Super Squirrel
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Draft league question.

                Che Adams or Brewster?

                Currently have Che Adams.

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Che v west brom

              13. Pipermaru
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                I have simple answer to Robbo vs TAA conondrum...get both!

                Sacrifice Mitro, Bamford, Zaha, Podence etc and just get Liverpool winger, sure all of them cheap strikers and mids will have their 15 minutes of fame but then disappear for weeks or months even and Robbo/Trent will be ticking nicely all season.

              14. Tim2012
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                A) Martial to Ramirez

                Or

                B) Prodence to Klich

                Free transfer

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  C save.

              15. Daniel - WCGW18, BB/TC19, N…
                • 11 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Alzate 4.5m or Stephens 4.4m as an 8th attacker?

                1. Pat Bonner
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Save the 0.1

                2. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  4.4. Gives you something in the bank.

              16. Kuyt Hero
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Davies to Semedo or Reece James?

                1. F4L
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  James

                2. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  James

              17. Chilli Heatwave
                • 2 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Jiminez or KDB captain?

                1. F4L
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Jimenez is guaranteed a return.

                  Depends if you think KDB could go big, 13ish+

                2. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  KDB

                3. Party time
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Jimmy

              18. Pat Bonner
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Brewster now sheff Utd player on fpl

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Yippee. 1st sub now instead of 3rd.

                  Rhian Brewster: Sheffield United sign Liverpool striker
                  https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54393687

                  1. GloryManUnited
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    You think he plays this weekend? Very unlikely I'd say

                    1. Forever In Our Shadow
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      Sub at best. There again they are desperate for a goalscorer.

                2. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Keep up!

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Only just been updated on fpl. Wanted to get salah robbo taa and Brewster in wc!

              19. Skogen89
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                play
                A) Lamptey (Eve A)
                B) Taylor (New A)

                1. Chilli Heatwave
                  • 2 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  A

                2. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  A. Everton likely to concede

              20. Pat Bonner
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Think I’m all set

                Martinez
                Taa robbo James
                Salah kdb foden Barnes trossard
                Jimmy DCL

                Steer Lamptey Mitchell Brewster

                1. Whazza
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Excellent!

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Cheers

                2. F4L
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  That's nice

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Thanks, would’ve loved Ings and/or mahrez (son) but robbo/taa double up looks too good

                    1. F4L
                      • 6 Years
                      3 months, 14 days ago

                      You can't have them all 😀 The Pool defence double is the play. Looking to get it myself after the Everton game.

                      Good luck!

                      1. Pat Bonner
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        3 months, 14 days ago

                        Thanks. Good luck to you as well

                3. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Beaut

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Thanks

                4. Pipermaru
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Solid! Missing Kane, Bruno and Ings but can't have them all 😉 good luck.

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Cheers

                5. Miguel Sanchez
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Looks good - glad they updated Brewster for you to be able to get this

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Thanks

                6. kempc23
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Looks great! Im £0.9m short of that already.

                  1. Pat Bonner
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 9 Years
                    3 months, 14 days ago

                    Cheers all. Loving all the positive comments. So many players I want to squeeze in this season but this team hopefully gives me some flex to move with the bandwagons!

              21. SMOOTH
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                would you guys advise losing ings for foden in order to upgrade a 4.4 def to digne

                1. Flair
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Not when he faces West Brom

                2. Pat Bonner
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Don’t think so. I’ve done that to get robbo but not sure worth it for Digne

                3. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Lol

                4. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Not this week. Future maybe.

              22. kempc23
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Any suggestions on wildcard?

                Ryan 4.0
                Digne Saiss James Lamptey Ferguson
                Salah Kdb Barnes Foden Mendy
                Ings Jim DCL

                1. Pat Bonner
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Looks great but just lacking a pool defender

              23. Cometh The Aouar...
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                Watching brief this weekend on Brewster methinks but seems like a no brainer to get in next week especially if you wanna save some dough...

                1. Snooze ya lose
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Think everyone has him on the watchlist now!

                2. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Got him on wc. For 4.5. Surely got to start every week even if he starts sub this week.

                3. HuttonDressedasLahm
                  • 11 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Annoyingly have three playing strikers now

              24. Erez Avni
                • 4 Years
                3 months, 14 days ago

                heed help pls on my WC
                _____
                Robo, TAA, Justine, ______
                Salah, KDB, Barnes
                DCL, Ings, Jiminez

                Steer, Stephens, Mitchel, Burke

                A. Martinez & Walker-Peters
                B. McCarthy & Lampty

                Cheers!

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  A. Great to see a woman getting a start in your side.

                2. Gomolon
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  3 months, 14 days ago

                  Martinez and Lamptey