Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Blue Moon Rising
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Saint maximin to

    A) Barnes
    B) Zaha
    C) Foden
    D) Podence?

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Keep

      1. Blue Moon Rising
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        He’s injured isn’t he?

    2. Tcheco
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A

    3. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A or C

    4. FPL FAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I think he will start, keeping him

  2. Tcheco
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    A. Salah Klitch Semedo

    B. Auba Jota Coady

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      BB

    2. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A

    3. GREEN JUMPERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A

  3. Ray In Bruges.
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA KWP Justin (Vinagre, Mitchell)
    Fernandes JRod KDB Traore (ASM)
    Jimenez Ings DCL

    G2G?

  4. Viper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    If I bring in DCL this week, I'll have Robertson, TAA, Salah, Rodriguez & DCL in the following gwk.

    Enough of a reason to put me off doing it or irrelevant?

    1. yiidddoo
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      everton missing allan and gomes too...another reason im missing him

    2. Tcheco
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Take this week's (likely) points & worry about that later

    3. Taegugk Warrior
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Yup

    4. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Gtg

  5. Nightf0x
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Rams
    Taa justin sais taylor
    Bruno salah kdb podence
    Dcl jimi
    Bench - soucek davis mitchel

    Which ?
    A) roll ft
    B) soucek to klich, bench taylor/justin
    C) davis bruno -4 to ings barnes, bench taylor/justin

    1. zon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A 100%

  6. Taegugk Warrior
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Martinez
    Robbo,Saiss,James, justin
    Salah,KDB,Hamez,Klich
    DCL,Jimenez

    Peacock-Farrell Mitchel Brewster Son
    0,0ITB
    1FT

    A. Son to Barnes
    B. Save FT

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B

  7. Bushwhacker
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 29 days ago

    So when do we get free COVID transfers FPL?

    1. Kindness
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      You get one every week

    2. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Sickening

  8. james 101
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Captain will be KDB

    Who to vc? On sterling now but considering jimmy!

    Martinez
    Digne Saiss James
    KDB Rodriguez Zaha Sterling
    Jimmy Martial DCL

    (Steer Justin Hendrick Mitchell)

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Martial

      1. james 101
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        He worries me

  9. ClipityKlopp
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Help needed.
    A barnes
    B podence

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B

      1. ClipityKlopp
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Thankyou

    2. Taegugk Warrior
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      A

  10. MarcusAurelius
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Captain?? First to 3 wins

    A) Salah
    B) KDB
    C) Jiménez

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Cx3

    2. Sarri-ball
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Got same 3 options.

      Currently on kdb

    3. Deulo10
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B

    4. HD7
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Salah for me.

    5. zon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B

    6. GREEN JUMPERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 29 days ago

      C

  11. HD7
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Is Dunne expected to start or that was it for him?

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Yes one more game

    2. The Littlest Robbo
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Tarkowski returned mid week against man city I think, so Dunne is done

  12. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    super confused on what to do here with 1ft and 0.2m. My primary goal is to get Salah by latest gw6

    Martinez
    Taa James Saiss -- Lamptey (eve) Mitchell (che)
    Foden KDB Havertz Son -- Burke
    Jimmy DCL Werner

    A: Son >> Barnes. Will need to be a long term transfer as i can then focus on converting havertz(or foden) + Werner >> Salah + 6m fwd

    B: Son + Werner >> Salah + 6.5m forward (-4). Solves the salah headache immediately but Werner has two good fixtures (but lots of potential price drops). Also, all the cheap striker options have tough fixtures

    C: Save FT and hope son plays. back up defenders don't have great fixtures

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      C a good move

    2. ZimZalabim
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      B with wood as ur 6.5 striker for the immediate salah option.

      but more importantly do u really want to move son on ? I own him and am struggling to decide on what to do with him.

  13. FDMS All Starz
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What needs changing here?...or should I save FT?

    (1FT/0.0itb)
    McCarthy
    Justin - Davies - TAA
    Kdb - Podence - Salah - Bruno
    Adams - Wilson - Werner

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Save

    2. HD7
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Looks like you can save. Is Podence sure to play

  14. HD7
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Best Wolves defender to have?
    Semedo?

    1. Drizz ✅
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Coady

      1. HD7
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        but he aint the most atacking defender to have right?

    2. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Coady

  15. Puyol Pants Up
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Wildcarding next week, looking for a mid that's 6.4 or under to punt on for one week.

    Surely Jota?

    1. Ray In Bruges.
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Of course!

      1. Taegugk Warrior
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Is he surely start..?

    2. noahzark22
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Traore

  16. Taegugk Warrior
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Chance Son’s Price drop before gw start...?

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      he will drop tonight

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Falling tonight according to Fpl stats

    3. Paul Psychic Octopus
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      probably

  17. HD7
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Can the Mane TAA rumour for being ill have some credibility, any update?

    1. kamdaraji
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      TAA?

    2. TimoTime
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Mane 100% confirmed out on BBC and Sky, not heard anything more on TAA so reckon he is OK

    3. The Littlest Robbo
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      TAA trained today

    4. ZimZalabim
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Taa was training today and is fine

      Mane has Covid its all over the news and hes put a post on instagram confirming he tested positive and is isolating

      1. HD7
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Thanks for the info mates. Interesting how only Mane for the whole group is positive

  18. Drogba Legend
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    What to do here? .9 ITB, 1FT

    McCarthy
    TAA - Justin - Bavies - Holding
    Salah - KDB - Podence* - Son*
    Werner - Ings

    Nyland - Bissouma - Mitchell - Davis

    A) Son > 9.9 mid
    B) Bavies > 5.9 D
    C) Son and Bavies > Robbo and 7.9 mid (Hamez/Barnes/Zaha) (-4)
    D) Son and Davis > DCL and 6.9 mid?

    1. ZimZalabim
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Im in a similar situation and keep flip flopping between options

      D is probably ur safest option with Foden as ur mid but that is if u def will lose son

      u could just do podence and Davies to Foden and Lamptey and hold son

    2. barcaa7
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      D

  19. wildnothing
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Save ft and gtg after an embarrassing wc ganeweek?

    Martinez
    VVD Digne Saiss
    Sterling KDB Zaha Barnes Foden
    Jimenez DCL

    Steer Mitrovic Lamptey Dunne

  20. noahzark22
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Son to Neto, Traore, or hold FT?

    1. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Not Neto. Podence

    2. FPL FAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Hold

  21. Murder On Zidane's Flo…
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Just got in Sterling for Mane now don't know whether to give him the armband or leave it on De Bruyne. What do you guys reckon?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Sterling

    2. Takin the Schmeichel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      I'm going Sterling

    3. OleBall
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Raz

      • ZimZalabim
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        sterling

      • UNDERWORLD7
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        De Bruyne

    4. dopellganger
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 29 days ago

      gtg?

      Guaita
      Trent Saiss Justin
      Salah Kdb Barnes Zaha
      Ings Jimenez(c) Dcl

      Steer Mitchell Dunne Reed

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Gtg

    5. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      With Mané out do you think this makes Salah better option than KDB as captain?

      1. Noah’s Ark
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I don’t think so?

      2. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I look at it the opposite way and think they will be less dangerous going forward

      3. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Recent isolate example granted, but if it weren’t for Mane Salah would have blanked Monday night just gone...

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          *isolated

        2. Bushwhacker
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Assuming Jota wasn't there to knock it in you mean.

          1. KAPTAIN KANE
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Yeah, he’s usually deeper I think (Mane can match Salah’s pace)

    6. KAPTAIN KANE
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Pretty sure this will be my team long term:

      Martinez
      TAA | Dallas | KWP/Lamptey
      Salah | KdB/Sterling | Son | Barnes | Soucek
      Kane | DCL

      Steer | Brewster | Mitchell | Ferguson

      Can’t see anything I’d realistically change barring injuries, I guess Barnes would be the main one but right now Leicester are looking great.

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Looks very impressive all in all

        what does ur current team look like how far away are u from this ?

        1. KAPTAIN KANE
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Thanks. Current on left:

          Digne to KWP/Lamptey
          Bruno to KdB/Sterling
          Rodriguez to Son*

          Davis to Brewster
          Buur to Ferguson

          *Actually sold Son this week to get Barnes and DCL

          1. ZimZalabim
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            did u not look at gettig Kdb/Sterling in for son this week ?

            Im trying to work my way towards a similar team, hopefully without having to wc

            But im struggling this week with Son, Rich and Podence flagged.

            The biggest problem is the move I make(sterling in) could very well push me away from Kane/Son and make it tough to get them in. Would give me a double up with City mids. This week that looks gold but next week Kane is probably the stand out captain. Would be tough for me to get him in that quick anyway but if I can hold Son he would be nailed Captain next week.

            Do you think he will actually be back by gw5 ?

            1. KAPTAIN KANE
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Yes I did, but it meant sacrificing Digne which I didn’t want to do before Brighton at home.

              It’s difficult to know, Jose is coy with those things. I hope/think he will yes.

    7. Kjoreilly
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Any improvements guys?

      0.7 ITB for Mahrez to Son

      Martinez
      Justin, trent, robertson
      Salah, KDB, Mahrez, Trossard, Soucek
      DCL, Jiminez

      Taylor, Brewster, Mitchell

    8. Lignja
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      what ppl doing with Son now still selling or there is good chance that he play?

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Reluctantly sold for Barnes.

        I also own Podence (and to a lesser extent Saiss and Foden) with 1 sub (Mitchell away at Chelsea) so felt my hand was forced a bit.

        1. Lignja
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          also have Podence and Mithcell as only bech cover....thinking to selll Son and 4.5m forward to Jimenez to 4.5m mid

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            If that's for free then go for it.

            1. Lignja
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              sadly it is for a hit but if i dont i dont think i will have 11 players

              1. Lignja
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                dont like any option that i can swap Son for up to 9 m

      2. KAPTAIN KANE
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Will miss United, but could be back straight after IB

      3. ZimZalabim
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        still deciding

        problem for me is I have Rich, Podence, also and made an early move this week so I have to decide how aggressive I want to be.

        Simple solution would be to hold Son and take the drops hoping hes back by gw5 and sell rich for dcl for -4 but I might go -8 and get sterling in

        Tough choice and only a couple of hours to decide

    9. Rondon9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Good to go?

      Martinez
      TAA Semedo Robbo
      Salah KDB Podence Foden
      Jimenez Wood DCL

      4m - Lamptey Mitchell Reed

      0FT 2.5M ITB

      Cheers

      1. ZimZalabim
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        gtg

    10. focaccia
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Best swap for Mane? Salah?

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Definitely

    11. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Is Mitro to DCL worth a -4?
      Cheers

    12. Noah’s Ark
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      Thoughts on my wc team?

      Martinez
      Trent, Robertson, Castagne
      Salah, Kdb, Barnes, Trossard, Pereira
      Ings, Dcl

      Forster, Davis, Ferguson, Dunne