Chelsea’s FPL Points Potential

Out of all the Premier League teams this season, Chelsea spent the most money during the summer transfer window.

Expectations were high, however, their first three games were not as rewarding as anticipated. During that early spell they conceded six goals, despite playing against Brighton and West Brom.

From their FPL forwards and midfielders, only Tammy Abraham (£7.2m), Mason Mount (£6.8m), and Callum Hudson-Odoi (£5.7m) succeeded in scoring a goal from open play, netting once each. The hype surrounding Timo Werner (£9.4m), Kai Havertz (£8.3m), Christian Pulisic (£8.2m), and Hakim Ziyech (£8.2m) remained an imagination.

However, the arrival of the defensive trio of Edouard Mendy (£5.1m), Thiago Silva (£5.5m), and Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) in Gameweek 4 has brought solidity to the team.

In the four matches they have played together, they have conceded just one goal – notably initiated from a set-play. Ben Chilwell, in particular, has also contributed at the other end of the pitch with two goals and two assists. The resolute defence then bolstered the attack.

Specifically, since Hakim Ziyech got his first Premier League start in Gameweek 7, his influence has been apparent in Chelsea’s playing style. During the two Gameweeks he started (Gameweeks 7 and 8), no team has scored more or conceded fewer goals than Chelsea.

But what does that mean for the FPL manager? Which defensive assets should we buy? And is Ziyech the only attacking asset we should target or are there other assets benefiting from him?

In this article, I would like to analyse the most recent Chelsea performances and dig deeper into their FPL prospects.

CHELSEA’S DEFENCE

As mentioned, Chelsea’s defence has been getting better since Mendy, Thiago Silva, and Chilwell have played together.

In fact, in the four games they were not all involved (Gameweeks 1, 2, 3, and 5), Chelsea conceded 17 shots on target, with nine converted into goals. In the other four games with the defensive trio, Chelsea conceded a significantly lower number of shots (seven), and Mendy has made six saves from those attempts, giving him the highest save percentage among all goalkeepers so far this season (85.7%).

The xGC number per 90 minutes is also getting better from 1.41 to just 0.44. The shots conceded almost halved from 53 to 29, but more importantly, the shots also came from less dangerous positions. Of the 53 shots conceded without the trio, 31 shots (58.5%) came from inside the box, compared to only 14 of the 29 shots (48.3%) with them.

The improvement in the defence is thankfully translated into higher FPL points. Mendy got 21 points from four games, while Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.8m) and Willy Caballero (£4.8m) got a total of seven points combined from the same number of games.

The trio also benefited the other assets like Kurt Zouma (£5.4m), Reece James (£5.0m), and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m). Zouma, especially, has averaged only a tiny 2.5 FPL points per game without the help of the defensive trio. In contrast, with the trio playing together with him, his performance improved to 9.5 points per game.

Now that their defence has provided better assurance in the clean sheet department, we should examine Chelsea’s attacking shape and see how we can milk further benefits from the defenders via their attacking potential, as well as examining their midfielders and forwards.

GAMEWEEK 7 ANALYSIS V BURNLEY

In Gameweek 7, Chelsea visited Turf Moor, winning 3-0. They fully dominated the game against Burnley, recording four times more touches in the opposition penalty area than the home side.

In this game, Frank Lampard played Reece James and Hakim Ziyech on the right side, Ben Chilwell and Timo Werner on the left side, with Tammy Abraham upfront, supported by Kai Havertz and Mason Mount behind.

The attacking shape of Chelsea started to form in this match with Ziyech pulling the strings, manifested by the crossing percentage from the right side up to 68.8%.

This might be to do with the Burnley defensive form pre-Gameweek 7, where the left-back, Charlie Taylor (£4.5m), had more freedom moving forward than his colleague in the right-back position, whether it is Phil Bardsley (£4.5m), Matthew Lowton (£4.4m), or Erik Pieters (£4.3m).

The format is supported by the data, as in this game, Reece James attempted more than double the number of crosses (seven) compared to Chilwell (three). Ziyech added to that with three crosses, while Werner, Havertz, and the late substitute Hudson-Odoi did not deliver a single cross between them from the left zone.

The diagonal crosses from the right side obviously benefited the players in the centre and left side, with Mount, Abraham, Werner, and Havertz combining eight goal attempts between them.

One particular improvement in Chelsea’s attack came not from the open play, though, but from the set-piece situations, particularly the corner kick.

Against the towering defenders that Burnley have, Chelsea saw their four corners on the night all converted into direct goal attempts – scoring once from the set plays. In the set-piece situation where either Ziyech, Mount, or James took responsibility, at least five Chelsea players always roamed in the penalty box: Werner, Abraham, Silva, Zouma, and, surprisingly, Chilwell.

GAMEWEEK 8 ANALYSIS VS SHEFFIELD UNITED

Against Sheffield United in Gameweek 8, I thought Lampard would change his tactics. The assumption was conveyed as Sheffield United were notably weaker on their right defensive side, where they have conceded 82 crosses pre-Gameweek 8 (the third worst in the league). Sheffield’s left side conceded 16 fewer crosses.

From the line-up, Frank Lampard did play the same attacking combination bar Havertz replaced by Mateo Kovacic (£5.3m).

However, it did not materialize. Chilwell had zero crosses in Gameweek 8. Lampard stuck to his plan, attacking from the right side, surprisingly with the same proportion as Gameweek 7 (68.8%).

Ziyech and James combined for 11 crosses between them, while Werner had only one attempted cross. The goal threat benefits of the centre and left-sided players flourished: Abraham had four goal attempts and Chilwell, Mount, and Werner recorded three goal attempts each.

The set-piece situation was also good. From the six corners Chelsea had, four were converted into goal attempts, with one goal scored by Thiago Silva. That means from their last 10 corners, Chelsea had eight goal attempts, with two goals from the new centre-back pairing.

PROSPECTS ON THE UPCOMING OPPONENTS

Chelsea’s fixtures moving forward, although many said it was easy, I find it actually the opposite.

Their opponents are in the dark horse category, I should say, as Newcastle, Spurs, Leeds, Everton, Wolves, and West Ham are all capable of causing a surprise when they click. For the next six Gameweeks, in fact, Chelsea’s fixtures rank 14th in the Fantasy Football Scout season ticker.

However, these opponents might be very well suited to the way Chelsea play. Their style of attacking fits their opponents’ weaknesses.

In the last four Gameweeks, four of their six opponents (Wolves, Tottenham, Newcastle, and West Ham) are among the seven worst teams for crosses conceded from their left defensive side. This bodes well with Ziyech and James whipping in crosses for fun and Abraham, Mount, Werner, and Chilwell getting the final touch.

Newcastle, their opponent in Gameweek 9, have conceded the third-most chances from set-plays this season. Their next opponent in Gameweek 10, Spurs, are also included in the 10 worst teams judging by the shots conceded from set-plays.

Owners of Zouma and Thiago Silva will certainly smell the opportunities of attacking return besides the clean sheet points. 

CONCLUSION

With the current bandwagon situation, jumping to a Chelsea asset might be an easy decision. Who to jump on is a different topic, however.

In this article we have seen that because of the way Chelsea are now playing, Ziyech and James have the highest possibility to get assist points, while Werner, Abraham, and Chilwell have the higher goal threat.

The clean sheet potential is higher, and with the improvement in Chelsea’s set-plays, both Thiago Silva and Zouma now have the potential to score the odd goal. Their upcoming opponents also have weaknesses that Chelsea can definitely exploit.

I would say, for now, getting them in should be a priority. Their spread of points potential across all positions should not be overlooked. Mendy has become a very good option considering his cheap price tag.

All the defenders have the potential for both clean sheet and attacking returns, so offloading Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) might be an easy way to get them in. In midfield, Ziyech is an easy replacement for Son Heung-min (£9.6m), while slowly but surely Werner is becoming an asset worth of his price.