Spot the Differential

Signing Cancelo a week before fixture swing can give FPL owners the edge

Fantasy Premier League managers could turn to Manchester City, Aston Villa or Crystal Palace to replace their Liverpool defenders for Gameweek 9.

Key members of the Reds’ back-line leave teams in their droves following the international break, so we have used this week’s Differential column to identify three exciting replacements; all of whom we think have the ability to deliver points at both ends of the pitch over the forthcoming weeks.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

João Cancelo

Cancelo stars for City as Sheff Utd's weak right-side bodes well for Chelsea
  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: tot | BUR | FUL | mun | WBA

João Cancelo (£5.4m) endured a tough first season in England, but is now starting to shine.

Since making his first Premier League start of the campaign in Gameweek 5, the Portugal international has amassed 24 FPL points, averaging six per game. In that time, he has registered two clean sheets and, despite only providing one assist, has created more chances than any defender in the entire division.

Having performed as a right full-back in his first appearance against Arsenal, he has since been deployed on the left in Benjamin Mendy’s (£5.9m) absence. It remains to be seen what will happen when the Frenchman returns from injury, but given Cancelo’s excellent form, it is hard to see an immediate route back into the team.

Since losing 5-2 to Leicester City back in September, Manchester City have conceded just four goals in nine games in all competitions, keeping five clean sheets. While many FPL managers will be looking at Gameweek 10 as the optimum time to invest in their backline, there could be value in going a week early, given Matt Doherty’s (£5.8m) positive coronavirus (COVID-19) test, and the fact most of Tottenham Hotspur’s chances tend to be conceded from their right-side.

Manchester City’s left-back problem has been a theme throughout Pep Guardiola’s time at the club, but the recent form of Cancelo has perhaps provided a solution. Consistency will now be the key to retaining his place, but if he can do that, it’s hard to envisage him being a differential too much longer. 

Matt Targett

  • FPL ownership: 2.4%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: BHA | whu | NEW | wol | BUR

Matt Targett (£4.5m) has been a solid performer for Aston Villa since joining from Southampton in 2019, making the left-back spot his own.

A product of the Saints academy, he has played a key role in a defence that has already kept four clean sheets in seven attempts this season, and perhaps doesn’t get the praise his performances often deserve.

The Englishman is yet to miss a single minute of league action so far, and with Jack Grealish (£7.5m) regularly drifting infield in front of him, plenty of space often opens up for him to attack. He’s got a good delivery too, which he showed in flashes against Arsenal last time out, when he provided the cross that was turned in by Bukayo Saka (£5.3m) for Villa’s first goal in their 3-0 win.

Interestingly, the 25-year-old scored his first goal for the club when he netted an injury time winner against this weekend’s opponents, Brighton and Hove Albion, back in October 2019.

This time, with Tariq Lamptey (£4.8m) likely to surge forward for Albion and support their attack, Targett could have his hands full defensively on Saturday, but at the same time, gaps could appear if space is left in behind. That has certainly been the case so far this season, with the Seagulls giving up 17 of their 42 chances down their right-flank, compared to just nine from the left. 

Still priced at just £4.5m, Targett offers the cheapest route into Villa’s defence, and could be a solid set and forget option given their appealing fixtures.

Patrick van Aanholt

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW9-13 fixtures: bur | NEW | wba | TOT | whu

Having just returned from a long-term injury, Patrick van Aanholt (£5.4m) looked back to his best against Leeds United before the international break.

The Dutchman supplied an assist and carried plenty of goal threat, registering three shots in the box. Determined to get forward at every opportunity, his attacking runs created space for Eberechi Eze (£5.8m) and Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) to thrive and gave them a cutting edge which has been missing without him in the team.

In his absence, Tyrick Mitchell (£4.1m) has impressed, but it was evident against Leeds just how much they’ve missed the 30-year-olds attacking nature, which leads us to think he’ll retain his place in the starting XI come Monday.

Despite often struggling in attack, Crystal Palace have had a bright start to the season. They sit eighth in the table, and looking at the run of games coming up, they have the potential to pick up points given the struggles of goal-shy Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and to a slightly lesser extent Newcastle United.

In Gameweek 8 there were signs of progress. The expectation now is that results should pick up, and with the possibility of goals and clean sheets, at least in the short term, van Aanholt could be a nice pick-up for those in search of a differential currently owned by just 0.7% of FPL managers. 

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1,986 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jay01
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Thoughts on Bamford? Too late to get him?

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Good pick for a great price.

    2. yakirh
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I'm debating between him and Watkins on W
      Currently on Bamford

      1. The Ilfordian
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Bamford has better stats but worse fixtures than Watkins. I’ve gone Watkins atm but Bamford is great shout

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Nope, great stats in an attacking team

    4. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Not too late. Couple of players returning from injury too which could help creatively

    5. HashAttack
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      I've got Bamford but can see myself ending with both him and Watkins, given all the potential mids ... not too late for either

  2. Bobby_Baggio
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 7 days ago

    Evening wise ones. Your help please? 1FT and 0.4m ITB. Happy to take a -4 too.

    McCarthy
    Justin - Konsa - Chilwell - Kilman
    Podence - Son - Hamez
    DCL - Kane - Vardy

    Salah - Lewis - Stephens

    A) Salah > Bruno
    B) Salah + Lewis > Bruno + Cancelo (-4)
    C) Salah + Podence > Rash + Grealish (-4) - annoyingly 0.1m out from Bruno + Grelaish.
    D) Save
    E) Anything else

    1. GreennRed
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      A.

    2. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      A

    3. Il Capitano
        2 months, 7 days ago

        A

      • Bobby_Baggio
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        cheers all

    4. bso
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Start Mitchell or Lamptey?

      1. SharkyT
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Lamp

      2. Bobby_Baggio
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        lamps

      3. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        lamp

      4. Little Red Lacazette
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Humptey

    5. SharkyT
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Already done 1FT & 0ITB

      A) Salah > KdB (-4)
      B) Salah > Mane (-4)
      C) Hold. Play 1 of Brewster/Mitchell

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        A

    6. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Who to keep 1st on bench?

      1. Brewster
      2. Mitchell

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        1

      2. SharkyT
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        1

      3. Bobby_Baggio
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        forward

    7. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 7 days ago

      Is Vassilev to Watkins worth a -4 to play 343? or just stick with 442 for now?

      5.0itb 0ft
      Martinez
      Chilwell Taylor Cancelo Justin
      Grealish Son Rodriguez Bruno
      DCL Kane
      (Peacock Ayling Bissouma Vassilev*)

      1. Il Capitano
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I think so, escaping from 4-4-2 probably worth it

          1. Tonyawesome69
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Cheers, it's a -4 waiting to happen to change formation.

      2. FOMFF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        If Coady went into isolation on the 12th (at least that's when the news came out), and wolves game is on the 23rd, seems safe to bet he plays on Monday, right?

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Isolation and no training, don't expect him to start

        2. caldracula
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I would say so, just because he’s had to isolate doesn’t mean he can’t keep himself in shape. Sure most players have space/gyms in their properties.

      3. BenDavies
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Arguably the most important captain choice of the FPL season this week. Good luck everyone, going DCL myself as an owner of Bruno.

        1. Qaiss
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          What? How is it the most important lol. The TC is probably the most important or GW38 depending on rank.

          1. teneighty
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            I think he missed a "so far". Next week will be importanter and so on.

          2. BenDavies
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Sorry, meant so far!

        2. caldracula
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          They all are tbh, if your captain scores well you can get away with a poor GW from the other players. It will be a lot more diverse this week though.

        3. Amey
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Will be huge OR swings

          1. BenDavies
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Yes, feel it might be wise to play it safe.

        4. Original - Wolves Ay We
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          No argument about it. It's not even close to being the most important captain choice of the season. There have already been a few far more important already.

      4. Shark Team
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Captain Ziyech Grealish or DCL

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          DCL

        2. Little Red Lacazette
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          DCL

        3. caldracula
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          All good options, DCL, Grealish then Ziyech would be my order.

      5. Olson
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        MUN have won 26 penalties in the previous two seasons combined
        MCI have won 7

        Bruno Fernandes has a 93% conversion rate

        and people are still calling him an 'option'

        1. Pukkipartyy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 7 days ago

          U mean hes a must?

      6. P2One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        WC team
        Set to go?

        Martinez - McCarthy

        Bellerin - Walker - Chilwell - Dann - Lewis

        Bruno - Mane - Jota - Zaha - Grealish

        Werner - Calvert Lewin - Brewster

        0.2 itb. Any advice?

        1. Bobby_Baggio
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          DOwn grade one of your keepers to 4m and upgrade Zaha to Ziyech, is that possible?

      7. Yank Revolution
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        Any update on Kilman's potential compassionate leave?

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          I'd keep eye on fan forums.
          Nono doesn't give away anything

        2. caldracula
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          No, just make sure you have someone coming in if he doesn’t play.

          1. Yank Revolution
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Thanks chaps

      8. DAZZ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 7 days ago

        WCers. How many man city assets you going with and which ones?

        1. Tango74
            2 months, 7 days ago

            I have none at mo but maybe kdb

          • ElChapo
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            0, but got money ITB to get De Bruyne next week.

        2. ElChapo
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          surprised Che Adams isn't more popular on here - great form, good fixtures, guaranteed to play, good attacking team. more consistent than bamford/watkins

          1. Pukkipartyy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Good fixtures? Saint have worst longterm fixtures.

        3. Kell_oggs
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 7 days ago

          Best 5th defender on WC?

          Stuck between Lewis, Killman or just getting a 3.9 fodder.
          Could stretch to 4.4 but want to bank as much as poss.
          Thoughts ?

          1. GreennRed
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            3.9 fodder.

          2. The Ilfordian
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Any other season I’d go for 3.9 and have more flex with the cash but there’s so many injuries and covid that all subs might be needed this season. Kilman seems safe option- secure and good team but I also like Balbuena and Lascelles (both attacking potential at 4.4)

          3. Tango74
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Kilman, I don’t do fodder now with so many games - injuries,Covid at moment

          4. Sous Chef
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            RMWCT

            Martinez Forster
            Mitchell Cancelo Coufal Chilwell Kilman
            Bruno KDB Ziyech Grealish Soucek
            Kane DCL Watkins

            0ITB so I have to do this tonight to afford it.

            1. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Rather have Vardy than Kane, wouldn’t keep Mitchell either. Probably wise to keep some funds back for Salah in a few weeks time.

          5. Netters2018
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Help needed here, team a mess
            Martinez
            Coady Lamptey Coufal, Justin
            Grealish Barkley Son
            Werner DCL Kane
            Bench Salah Mitchell Burke
            Thinking Barkley and Kane to KDB and Bamford/Watkins?

            1. Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Team’s not a mess at all. I’d probably just move Barkley out of that lot.

              How much will you have available if you take out Barkley?

              1. Netters2018
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 7 days ago

                9m i will have......i was thinking ziyech but i have wernwr and not sure i want a dbl chelsea up in attack yet

                1. Nomar
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  2 months, 7 days ago

                  Zaha.

                  I wish I had room in my team for him. As you have Werner and no need to get Ziyech I think Zaha is a decent pick.

                  Shame you can’t stretch to Bruno.

          6. It’s gonna Ben Mee
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            G2G?

            Martinez
            PvA Chilwell Zouma
            Soucek Son Hamez Grealish
            Kane DCL(c) Bamford

            Bench: Lamptey Vestergaard Mo
            0 FT, 2.7m ITB

            1. Sous Chef
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Yep

          7. fc_skrald
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            how many goals will Callum Wilson score tomorrow?

            1. The Count of Monte Cristo
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Owner - expecting 0 goals and 0 minutes.

            2. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              1

          8. Pad Randa
            • 9 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Lose Salah for a hit (for whom?) or stick? At the 4M mark, worst ever by far.

            Martinez
            Robbo - Chilwell - Saiss
            Jota (c) - Barnes - J-Rod - Zaha
            Kane - Jimi - Brewster

            Mitchell the only bench player worth discussing (unless Dunne somehow comes into play).

            1. The Ilfordian
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              WC?

              1. Pad Randa
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 7 days ago

                Already gone and made things exponentially worse 🙁

                1. The Ilfordian
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 7 days ago

                  I feel for you. I’m at 3.2m. Made mistakes at the start, tried to rescue it and ended up with too many duds. I’m looking at the long game. Just need to average 65 to get my last years score

            2. Pep bites Kun
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Looking at your team, I reckon there's a lot itb?

              1. Pad Randa
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 7 days ago

                Boy, I wish...

          9. afs2239
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Bruno essential in WC?

            1. jaguar shark
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Yup

            2. Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I think he’s an incredibly important pick on WC and I am on my WC at the moment and have bought him in.

              But the vast majority on here will tell you otherwise, especially if it means going without KdB.

            3. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I don’t think so

          10. bluee
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Thinking I might just hang on to Salah..

            Chances of these 2 starting?

            1) Saiss
            2) Mitchell

            1. Pep bites Kun
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Well they're less than nailed, so unreliable assets to make 11. Depends on how reliable with performance/fixtures your other players are to bench or replace Salah.

          11. jaguar shark
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            If Salah has not had a negative test yet, does that mean he’ll miss two premier league games?

            1. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              No

          12. wulfranian
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            If Salah's test is negative on Monday he will play vs Brighton right?

            1. jaguar shark
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Hah, just asked a very similar question.

            2. WE GO FOR IT
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              He should, yeah!

            3. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Yes

            4. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              He’ll be able to train again so could even be in contention for the champions league game.

            5. g40steve
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              IF

            6. Pep bites Kun
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I thought he had to self-isolate for 10-14 days coming from abroad. If he has tested positive at one point, then he'll obviously miss training for a game and therefore the game itself?

          13. Chemical76
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Why does Ramsdale have a Threat rating of 2?

            1. BenDavies
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Maybe he's good at kicking/high accuracy passes

              1. Chemical76
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 7 days ago

                Same rating as Igalho and Shaqiri

          14. Well you know, Triffic
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Is it worth waiting until tomorrow to do transfers incase of failed covid tests?

          15. WE GO FOR IT
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Did Salah to Bruno for a hit. Next 3 fixtures look good for Bruno and Salah might miss 2. Wolves isn't the best fixture either. Will get him back for the Fulham game after that.

          16. SomeoneKnows
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Any idea what's the latest with Salah? Do we know if he's likely to be out vs Brighton?

            Also, what are the chances of Saiss starting this week?

            1. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Hasn’t been confirmed yet.

              50/50

          17. Gooders
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Final WC decision:

            McCarthy Forster
            Chilwell Cancelo Targett Coufal Lewis
            Bruno Ziyech Grealish .... ....
            DCL Watkins ....

            A) Mane/KDB, Soucek, Vardy (1.3m in bank)
            B) KDB, Mane, Brewster (enough ITB to switch Mane to Salah down the line)

            1. WE GO FOR IT
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              I like Soucek and Vardy over Mane and Brewster. Getting Salah might be difficult after that. You'd have to lose Bruno/KdB. Or downgrade Vardy and upgrade Ziyech.

          18. HashAttack
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 7 days ago

            Last 3 MCI home matches v Burnely have ended 5-0 ... 15 goals but only 2 for Aguero, 1 for KDB and none for Sterling

            Last match was 2 for Foden and 2 for Mahrez

            1. caldracula
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 7 days ago

              Doesn’t mean that’s what will happen in the next game

              1. HashAttack
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 7 days ago

                Aguero hasn't had a good match against them for ages - it certainly changed my mind about getting him for a gw 10 punt
                Aguero will never score at Anfield .. he must be convinced off that by now

                1. Pep bites Kun
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 7 days ago

                  Agree and both disagree. This supposition and the stats attached could go up in a cloud of smoke based on this gw. Rather than speculate on a singular future gw, based on past gws; let's get points from this one and/or learn something. Then let's look at next week 🙂