Scout Network

FPL assets that can help managers soar through the ranks over Christmas

Over the course of the last ten Gameweeks we have seen a group of players emerge as the most popular players in the game as a result of their form, fixtures and in most cases both. The ten most owned players include:

  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin (7.9m) – 60.8%
  • Heung-Min Son (9.5m) – 57.6%
  • Harry Kane (10.9m) – 42.9%
  • Jack Grealish (7.7m) – 41.8%
  • Bruno Fernandes (10.8m) – 38.4%
  • Patrick Bamford (6.1m) – 35.2%
  • Ben Chilwell (6.1m) – 33.5%
  • Mohamad Salah (12.2m) – 29.8%
  • Jamie Vardy (10.2%) – 28.7%
  • Emiliano Martinez (4.8%) – 27.3%

In order to build a team containing all of these players you would need to spend 86.2m leaving just 13.8m for the other five players you need to build a squad. As such being selective about which of these most highly-owned players you choose is vital, as is selecting the right differentials.

Differentials are key to the success of a Fantasy Premier League squad. Mostly because if chosen correctly their points returns can boost your status in terms of mini-league position and overall rank. However, differentials can also be vital for making the squad budget works as they are often lower value players who enable FPL managers to afford as many of the key highly-owned, highly-valued players as possible.

We asked the members of the Scout Network who they think looks to be the best under 5% owned differential for the run up to Christmas.

Ted Talks FPL

Ted Talks FPL graphic for Jack Harrison

Jack Harrison (5.5m) Leeds United – 1.5%

With an assist for Leeds’ winning goal against Everton on Saturday, Harrison is now on four attacking returns for the season. That’s one every 2.5 games. More importantly, he’s displaying some excellent underlying numbers which could suggest that this rate of returns will improve. 18 Chances Created in the last six Gameweeks is only bettered by Bruno Fernandes, of which three big chances created is only bettered by Grealish, Fernandes, De Bruyne and Ziyech. In the same period, 10 Shots, including two big chances means that he is demonstrating combined goal and assist potential.

After Chelsea in Gameweek 11, Leeds play West Ham, Newcastle, Burnley and West Brom in their next five games, three of those at home. Excellent fixtures for budget midfielder Harrison to target. The form of Patrick Bamford is also a plus for the left winger with an increased chance of his crosses being converted. Harrison did pick up a knock towards the end of the Everton match, forcing him off the pitch but the initial reaction indicated nothing serious.

Ted Talks FPL

El Statto

El Statto heatmap – showing Abraham as a penalty box forward

The Scout Network: Which under 5% owned differentials look like the best investments?

Abraham’s points against lower ranked teams so far this season

Tammy Abraham (7.2m) Chelsea – 2.7%

With all their attacking options brought in the summer I think it was commonly expected that Abraham would be a bench option this season. However, he is proving pivotal to how Chelsea play, he is very much the penalty box poacher (see heatmap) allowing the likes of Werner, Ziyech, Havertz and Pulisic to influence the game from outside the box and in wide positions.

Tammy is averaging two shots per game, although slightly distorted by being in and out of the team over the first six Gameweeks with reduced minutes, however since then he has scored two in four. He is averaging 4.2 pts per game thanks to three goals and two assists already and returning in just over half of the games he’s played.

The most appealing thing for Abraham (and Chelsea in general) is their great run of fixtures over Dec, LEE/eve/wol/WHU/are/AVL. So far, against the non-top-six is where Abraham has performed better (see points split) but also they are up against teams that will allow chances and with Ziyech pulling the strings behind him I really expect his goal tally in particular to benefit over the busy Christmas period.

El Statto

FF Titan

The Scout Network: Which under 5% owned differentials look like the best investments? 1

Alioski in action for Leeds United

Ezgjan Alioski (4.4m) Leeds United – 0.5%

Interestingly enough Alioski was one of the players we tracked before the season started. He, however, did not make his first Premier League start until Gameweek 6.

Over the past 3 games, the North Macedonian international has started in 3 different roles on the left side for Leeds and has excelled. Against Everton, Alioski was deployed as a winger, supporting Harrison and Bamford with his runs on the left. He is listed as a defender and has benefited greatly from Leeds’ back-to-back clean sheets.

Leeds have been playing well with their current set of personnel and set-up so we can expect Alioski to continue to keep his place in the starting eleven. At his price point (£4.4m), only Fabian Balbuena of West Ham and Max Kilman of Wolves have more FPL points.

In Alioski, we may have found the Lord Lundstram of this season – a listed defender deployed in midfield.

FF Titan

FPL Family

Tielemans celebrates scoring for Leicester City

Youri Tielemans (6.4m) Leicester City – 3.2%

Tielemans, and Leicester City generally have not set the world on fire so far this season. The Belgian has returned attacking returns twice this season against Leeds and Manchester City as well as two clean sheet points against Wolves and West Brom.

Whilst the attacking returns haven’t yet been constant the return of key players from injury such as James Maddison will bolster the Leicester attacking and as a result should improve Tielemans attacking output.

Tielemans currently sits 12th in the game for influence with only the likes of highly owned players such as Fernandes, Son, Sarah, Grealish and James Ward-Prowse ahead of him. As such the underlying stats are there to suggest that Tielemans should return some good points for his FPL Managers in the build up to Christmas – especially in fixtures against Sheffield United, Brighton and a Digne-less Everton.

FPL Family – Sam

FPL Nymfria

Jesus celebrates scoring for Man City vs Wolves

Gabriel Jesus (9.3m) Manchester City – 1.5%

With some talk that Aguero has re-aggravated his injury, and already a confirmation that Pep isn’t going to rush the Argentine back when fit, this should mean that Jesus is set to get his fourth consecutive start in the Premier League. With two goals and one assist in nine Gameweeks, there’s no surprise he’s just 1.5% owned. However, delve a little deeper and you’ll find his stats the past three Gameweeks are on par with that of other highly owned strikers.

He’s played 270 minutes the same as Calvert-Lewin and Harry Kane, scored the same amount of goals (one) as Kane and Bamford and has one assist along with Kane over his competitors. He’s had eight shots, only Bamford has had more with 13, and while he falls down a little when it comes to shots on target, he makes up for with his touches in the oppositions box. He’s had 20 which puts him right up there (between Gameweeks eight to 10), beating Kane, Bamford and Wilson. Which means, should he get some minutes in Gameweek 11, he’ll be right amongst the thick of things, hopefully making it more likely for a return or two.

If you didn’t have the room for Jesus up front you could consider Riyad Mahrez (3.2%) as another way into the Manchester City side for gameweek 11. In the past three Gameweeks he’s had six shots in the box and four on target. With an xG of 1.17 and off the back of a hat-trick, he’s an exciting prospect, but arguably a much risker one than Jesus based on his inconsistent game-time.

Of course these City differential comes with a massive warning flag, as touched upon, Pep loves to troll us FPL managers. There is no guarantees for minutes played apart from De Bruyne and Ederson in that Manchester City line-up. However, for the shot-term risk takers amongst us, this could be a fruitful punt. My advice is to wait and see what happens mid-week and then check-out the predicated line-ups here on the Fantasy Football Scout website before making your transfer nearer to the deadline.

FPL Nymfria

What’s happening in The Scout Network?

Ted Talks FPL

Last week Ted made his first appearance on The Scoutcast. It was great to welcome Ted in to the Scoutcast family! Joe, FPL Surgery’s Josh Paxman and Ted discussed ‘Form vs Fixtures’, all things Man City, Diogo Jota and their own teams ahead of Gameweek 10. On top of producing content for his own channels, Ted has continued to create videos for some of the FFScout Scout Notes summary this weekend. This week he produced videos for Man City vs Burnley and Chelsea vs Spurs.

FPL Nymfria

Nymfria’s Gameweek 10 video hit her channels highest typical views this week which was an excellent achievement as she looks to improve and grow her weekly content. The FPL Wildcats had a rare week with the original crew, full of Q&A’s and plenty of laugh, and I was joined by Scout Acadamy member FPL Focus as we chose the FPL Dream Team ahead of Gameweek 11.

El Statto

El Statto’s website jumpersforgoalposts.info passed 50,000 article reads this week since it launched in September – which is a remarkable achievement. He also updated his ABC Transfer guide using hauls and returns as measures and applying the last six Gameweeks data to highlight players you should be targeting with your transfers. Bendarnek was one highlighted who obviously returned with a goal against Man Utd this gameweek!

FF Titan

This week, over and above their regular pieces, FF Titan have had one of their regular contributors share how FPL has improved his mental health. A very important topic in the mist of a global pandemic. The FF Titans have also considered chip strategies for the 2020/21 season.

FPL Family

Last week Sam appeared on the Official FPL Podcast, this week Lee will be joining James Richardson to share his thoughts on Gameweek 11. Lee and Sam will also both be appearing on this weeks FPL Show.

The FPL Family are fast approaching 15k subscribers on YouTube and hope to pass that milestone in the next couple of weeks.

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751 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Little Red Lacazette
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Too risky to go without City this GW? Would have to lose 2 Spurs to get the only City player I am interested in KDB. Would line up with Salah, Bruno and Grealish.

    1. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I am wondering myself with FUL performance improved, see below

    2. n14mul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Sorry but this is City we are talking about not Leicester.

  2. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    How urgent is KDB this week for captaincy if you had Bruno and Vardy as alternatives. There are 9 starting players + Son + Cancelo, what would you do:
    A. Son > KDB [C]
    B. Cancelo > James, Bruno [C]
    C. Roll transfer, Bruno [C]

    1. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Both are very good candidates, though West Ham have been solid defensively and Leicester's ability to create is in doubt. I would do A but the other options are viable too.

    2. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I am tempted by A. Personally, I would have to take a -4 to get KDB.

  3. Gravless are for Kinnear
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 23 days ago

    Cancelo

  4. Parsnips
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Just heard robo news. How long is he out for?

      1. Jon Walter's Hatty
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Wut?

      2. n14mul
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        What news

        1. Jon Walter's Hatty
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          All ive read is he got an ankle knock but conpleted 90. Klopp said he should be ok. He has 3 days full recovery anyway.

          1. n14mul
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            Think he will be fine and then rested for champs league next week

            1. Jon Walter's Hatty
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 23 days ago

              Yeah he needs to deal with Traore so important to get one more game out of him

    • Woodpusher64
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      With Cancelo and Walker in team do people think at least one will be starting this weekend?

      1. Offs!de
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Of course, at least one will start

      2. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Walker will almost certainly start, Cancelo is a bigger risk.

        1. Flynny
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Walker will start

          Cancelo won't

      3. jomikijiq
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Walker yes
        At LB Mendy probably

    • Warby84
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Martinez
      Van Aanholt Cancelo Dias Coufal
      Zaha Salah De Bruyne (c) Son
      Vardy Calvert-Lewin

      Bissouma Brewster Branthwaite

      Not sure what to do, took an early transfer for De Bruyne. Will Zaha be back? I can do Cancelo to James -4 or have have Bissouma and Brewster as back up... Took a -12 last week which backfired..

      1. J ⚒ Salah & Vinagre
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Zaha is back and will be playing this weekend.

    • n14mul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Morning,

      This time yesterday I asked who was the better pick for this gw between grealish or mahrez.....it was a unanimous for Jack.

      So Jack no longer in the equation who else is worth a punt for this game week and possibly next?

      1. Roysgotnoboys
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Have we heard any news about when the Newcastle Vs Villa game will be re-arranged to?

        Remember a few seasons back they managed to re-arrange within the same GW and move the following game backwards

    • Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Writing "global pandemic" is like writing "reversing backwards".

    • Jimjam
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Martinez (Steer)
      Robertson, Chilwell, Coufal (KWP, Mitchell)
      Salah, Son, Ziyech, Grealish (Stephens)
      Kane, DCL, Bamford

      2FT, 1.3 in bank

      Need to use a free to ensure I have a playing keeper.

      (A) Martinez --> Mendy
      (B) Steer -> Johnstone

    • Sz21
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      WC attempt.
      McCarthy, (Forster).
      Chilwell, James, Webster, (Targett, Dallas).
      KDB (c), Salah, Jota, Fernandes (vc), (Grealish).
      DCL, Bamford, Welbeck.
      0.0m ITB.

      Some other considerations.
      Dias instead of James is an option.
      Also- Raphina or Armstrong + Jesus or Vardy instead of Grealish/DCL.

    • Dr. Ante Pavlovic
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      How would this look for next gw, if I took a hit to get Mahrez in for Grealish as a punt? Could easily bring him back in gw13.

      Mendy
      Chilwell, Justin, Cancelo
      KDB(c), Bruno, Mahrez, Ziyech, Jota
      Vardy, DCL

      Button, Coufal, Brewster, Targett

      1. Roysgotnoboys
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Tempted to do similar myself. Think it’s an aggressive move that could pay off for a couple of weeks before getting Salah and Grealish

    • Mr. Mystic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Sheffield fans, can we expect Burke to get another start at the weekend?

    • Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Best move here fellas?

      A) Save FT
      B) Cancelo -> 5.5
      C) Something else

      McCarthy
      Cancelo, James, Bellerin
      KDB, Sterling, Son, Jota
      Vardy, DCL, Antonio

      Forster, Targett, Riedewald, Douglas
      Bank 0.0m, 1FT

      1. Sz21
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Save for sure. If Cancelo starts he should do really well and if not you have back up and then you know for certain he needs to go next GW.

        1. Flynny
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Cancelo is very unlikely to start tho

          1. Jinswick
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            I also have no backup in defence with Douglas and Targett not playing

          2. Jinswick
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            Annoyingly now 0.1 short of Cancelo -> Dias also

          3. Roysgotnoboys
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            I wouldn’t say very unlikely. Mandy has played one game, he scored but he can’t defend and this is Pep.

            Who knows

    • Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Sterling you are only 25, you are playing football for 90 mins you don't need rest every 3 days.
      People are working on a warehouse at night, with cold, every day.

      Sterling you will play against Fulham, otherwise I know where you live

    • Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Laporte with three consecutive benchings. That's very unusual and should not be happening. Indicative of an issue behind the scenes, perhaps? Either way it improves the prospects of Dias for now.

    • The Mantis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Teams a bit of a mess now as Wilson, Grealish and Martinez aren't playing. I actually don't have a GK for this week now. Not sure what to do, free hit or take some hits?

      Button

      Bellerin Cresswell Chilwell Kilman (Mitchell)

      Salah Jrod Bruno Bissouma

      Vardy DCL

      I was planning on getting KDB somehow but now it looks like I need to make other changes

    • The_Fish
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Sterling to KDB a no brainer?

      1. Flynny
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Yes

    • Flynny
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Any views on this plan please?

      Gw11 - cancelo and burke to dallas and jota - 4......gives me 10 outfield starters....exact cash for this

      Gw12 - vardy and ziyech to salah and brewster - 4 ...352

      (Martinez)
      Chilwell james cancelo lamptey (Mitchell)
      Kdb Bruno ziyech (burke grealish)
      Vardy dcl (watkins)

      Thanks

    • Jon Walter's Hatty
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Why is Robbo flagged ffs he completed the game. Casuals will start selling

      1. The_Fish
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Is that a bad thing?

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 23 days ago

        He completed the game because Klopp is a tightass with his substitutes

      3. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Looks like it was a knock to the same ankle he had an injury previously. He had it strapped up.

      4. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Let them...

    • Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Bench the Villa players and take a chance on Peacock-Farrell playing 1 more game?

      Should I use 1FT on replacing Cancelo? I was planning to have 2FT to bring in Salah in GW12

      1FT 0.2itb
      Martinez*
      Chilwell Cancelo* Justin
      Grealish* Son KDB Bruno
      Watkins* DCL Vardy
      (Peacock Ayling Taylor Bissouma)

      1. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Would rather play Martinez and have 0 then play the Peacock and get minus points from own goals

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          This type of comment does not help. If he doesn't play, he will be auto-subbed for Peacock.

          1. Roysgotnoboys
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 23 days ago

            Lol

    • J ⚒ Salah & Vinagre
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Seeing a few Zaha questions for people that held him.

      He’s been back in training this week and will be ready to start this weekend.

      Hold him if you got him IMO.

      1. Z
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        TY

    • Noah’s Ark
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I have 3 Villa and no playing bench. Free hit?

      1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Take the no-show from Martinez
        use FT and one of them and keep Grealish too I'd say

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Use a FT and field 9 men

    • manu4life99
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Is Robbo likely to miss WOL?

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Probably not but wait for the press conference. Though with 2CS in 10 and 4 blanks in 5 he feels like a real waste of money at the moment with Dias, Reguilon, Chilwell and James all cheaper.

    • Sulley
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Have a big issue. Used FT to do Salah > KDB with a view to switch Sterling to Salah next week. With Villa / Newc off it leaves my team
      Very bare:

      McCarthy
      James Coufal Lamptey
      Bruno Bissouma Sterling KDB (c)
      Werner DCL Wilson*

      All bench non playing. Now nervous Sterling will be benched. To hedge my bets is it worth Sterling > Mahrez now for -4, use FH or hold and accept a bad game week.

      Advice appreciated on FH as think I may regret not having it later in season.

      Cheers

    • ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Cancelo to Dias for a hit or play Riedewald/Hope that Cancelo plays?

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Not for a hit. Dias has had a lot of game time recently. Stones, Ake and Laporte on the bench last night. I think two of them will start at the weekend

        1. Flair
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Extremely unlikely that Ake will have even a remote chance of starting.

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Dias is no certainty to start either, he played yesterday

    • gryffsonofarthur
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Start.....

      A) Dallas (LEE) @ Chelsea

      Or

      B) Coufal (WHU) Home to MAN UTD

      1. Sulley
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 23 days ago

        I would say Coufal

    • Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Better option here? 1ft 2.0itb

      Martinez*
      Robbo Taylor Cancelo*
      Fernandes Son Ziyech Jota
      Vardy DCL Watkins

      4.0 Soucek Ayling Lewis*

      A) 4.0gk to Johnstone/McCarthy
      And play Soucek
      B) Watkins to Adams/Antonio

      1. drughi
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        like B adams

        1. Pukki Party
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Thanks

    • KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      I Really like Tammy Abraham as differential
      As i have no other chelsea attacking cover.
      Will you double up James with chilwell or,go with abraham ?
      A) 4.5 def + Abraham
      Or,
      B) Reece James + Bamford/antonio

      1. Pukki Party
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        B

    • Lost in fantasy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Werner to Jesus and a -4 hit? Specially now that aguero still has problems.

      Yes or No?

      1. Flair
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Dreadful idea. Leeds are an excellent opponent for Werner. He would be my 2nd best (C) this GW.

      2. Pukki Blinders
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 23 days ago

        Definitely not

      3. KUN_DE_BRU_YNE
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 23 days ago

        I am thinking bringing in werner,absolutely no for me !!!

    • Vlad
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 23 days ago

      Guys I had this brilliant idea of going sterling and cancelo last gw instead of kdb and Dias. So now I’m 0.1 shot of getting in kdb for sterling. I’m thinking of doing now this :
      Sterling —> Mahrez (c?)
      Bissouma —> Jota

      I have to play bissouma otherwise because of grealish absence.
      I figure mahrez scored a hattie on the weekend and was rested yesterday, I know pep is completely insane, but looks to me he has to start against Fulham.

      1. Sulley
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 23 days ago

        I am in similar boat. Was giving Sterling one more week as was Fulham at home. I think worth doing to Mahrez. I would need to take a hit and so not so clean cut. Obviously worth waiting until last min in case any other curve balls

        1. Vlad
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 23 days ago

          Yeah ofc waiting for Friday to do it.. 2 many risks doing early transfers.. that’s why upheld from going sterling to kdb on Monday night which is probably a mistake looking at it with hindsight. Tnx and good luck