Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

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639 Comments Post a Comment
  1. abhirup780
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 20 days ago

    1. Antonio
    2. Watkins
    3. Adams

    Which one for GW19 and beyond?

    1. Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 20 days ago

      Neither, all 3 are doubts

  2. zotter
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 20 days ago

    have six players for this week (seven if i take a hit for Chilwell > Dias)

    Q: do you think I am OK to go with that given the situation below?

    The way I am looking at it is

    - If i free hit I will gain an extra 20-30 points. However, I think that could be gained during a future free hit too
    - I will however have to bring in KdB, Dias, Cancelo next week which will cost a -8
    - I have already done Salah, Trent >> KdB, Cancelo this week
    - i have exact funds to do Son > Salah for free for GW19

    Current GW 18 team:
    **
    Dias, Cancelo
    KdB (c), Bruno, Son
    Wood, DCL

    GW19 Triple captain or maybe BB
    Martinez, Forster
    Dias, Cancelo, Dallas, COufal (KWP)
    Soucek, Salah, KdB, Bruno, Grealish
    Bamford (DCL, Wood)

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 20 days ago

      DCL is a goner now I'm afraid

    2. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 month, 20 days ago

      You need to FH IMO

    3. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 20 days ago

      Got a similar situation and ideally wanted to save the free hit, but with DCL apparently out now too I think free hit is the way to go.

  3. Labile
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 20 days ago

    Can I save my FH? also could take a -4 to get someone?

    Mitchell Stones Cancelo
    Son Bruno KDB Burke
    Kane

    1. Dexters Laboratory
        1 month, 20 days ago

        I'd just play it tbh... Join the dark side

      • 2OLEgend
          1 month, 20 days ago

          No need for FH imo. Save for another blank or a triple gw

          1. Labile
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 20 days ago

            Thanks both

        • Rhodes your boat
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 20 days ago

          Trying to be brave too and getting 8 with a -4, like myself you’ve got the big hitters for this week!

          1. Labile
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 20 days ago

            Imo if we nail our captain we might be ok. Easier said then done though!

        • Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 20 days ago

          Similar to my team and I am not FH'g

      • Inazuma X1
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 20 days ago

        DCL mass exodus incoming, price will plummet

        1. Would Ed Woodward
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 20 days ago

          He's dead to me again.

        2. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 20 days ago

          Hopefully we can buy in GW21 for the NEW + LEE fixtures for 7.5m or so

        3. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 20 days ago

          Oh no, I'll lose 0.1m max before I sell him in GW19...

      • popey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 20 days ago

        general consensus on Martial for gw18 & 19 if not using any chips?

        Rashford doesn't work for team structure as dont want to lose Grealish for DGW and beyond

        move would be TAA/Watkins >> AWB/Martial

        1. 2OLEgend
            1 month, 20 days ago

            Martial will share playtime with Cavani and he has been looking dreadfull all season

            1. Silecro
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              they can play together, Martial on RW

              1. popey
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 20 days ago

                Yes really not enthused with the Martial pick at all.

                Martial can be Kane and 4.4 defender actually with MITB (Would be either SHU or New defender by looks of things)

        2. Oooo Matron
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 20 days ago

          Rate my FH!

          De Gea
          Dias Dier Holding
          Fernandes Son KDB (C) Saka Rashford
          Kane Lacazette

          Subs: Kilman, Brewster, Mitchell

          1. Dexters Laboratory
              1 month, 20 days ago

              9/10

          2. DIMITRIS
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 20 days ago

            Help me out guys.
            What should I do with Grealish and Martinez? I have 2.2 ITB.
            Should I go -4 and get Rashford and Pickford instead of them?
            Or should I perhaps just get Rashford without a hit and leave Martinez?
            Also, what are the chances that Mahrez will play on Saturday, and what's going on with Sterling?

          3. Dexters Laboratory
              1 month, 20 days ago

              Best 9.8m defense combo (Not from Ars, ManU, ManC)
              Dier/Saiss & Fernandez?

            • Jimjam
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              So the Spurs/Villa/Fulham fixture swap has now left me with 7 BGW players, 2 of whom are Taylor (orange-flagged) and Stephens (usually on the bench for Burnley) - so likely 5 players in reality.

              Inevitable that I now need to use the FH?

              1. The Senate
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 20 days ago

                I will be going in with 8 plus one maybe.

            • Inazuma X1
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              Cenk Tosun punt anyone?

            • JJeyy
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              On FH:
              A) Rashford, Leno
              B) Lacazette, DDG

            • Radzio
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 20 days ago

              Would you FH this?
              Cancelo,Stones
              KDB, Bruno, Saka
              Wilson, Wood

              Was all set to keep FH with Grealish and Martinez but not sure anymore! The problem is that I would have choosen on FH all those players apart of Wood!

              Any help?

              1. Little Red Lacazette
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 20 days ago

                I think I would FH because I would want Spurs assets, especially if they play Fulham

            • Westfield Irons ⭐️
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              3 upfront for GW18 Free Hit?

              --------- Darlow ---------
              Tierney Cancelo Stones
              KDB Bruno Son Saka
              Kane Lacazette Wilson
              ---------------------------------
              Subs: Fabri, Anguisa, Kilman, Mitchell

              Is this probably quite template?
              I've essentially swapped Sterling/Rashford > Kane/Son and feel more confident with those changes after initially thinking the change of fixture for Spurs was a headache

            • Little Red Lacazette
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              This gets better. I have DCL. It is a FH then for me.

              1. _Ninja_
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 20 days ago

                Sadly DCL is out for 19 as well and youll have him back.

                1. Little Red Lacazette
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 20 days ago

                  I will sell DCL before GW 19 deadline so I am ok. Was the plan anyway.

            • waltzingmatildas
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 20 days ago

              What do you reckon?
              Darlow
              Cancelo stones holding
              Kdb Bruno rashford son
              Kane wilson
              (4.0 Smith-Rowe mitchell kilman)

              1. Dexters Laboratory
                  1 month, 20 days ago

                  I'd get an extra player tbh...

                  1. waltzingmatildas
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 20 days ago

                    Ha, you are right. I'd play esr and brewster on the bench

                • Dexters Laboratory
                    1 month, 20 days ago

                    I like it .. your budget is a little low?

                    1. waltzingmatildas
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      It is pretty low yeah. Rashford is a must have for me to be honest.

                  • Dexters Laboratory
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      Rashford/Wilson to Foden/Laca ... Use that extra money then to upgrade Defense?

                    • RichieW
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      9 players same as mine, I've got Leno/AWB instead of Darlow/ESR

                  • _Ninja_
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 20 days ago

                    DCL out for 10-15 days so misses GW18 and 19.

                    1. Inazuma X1
                      • 3 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      Who said 10-15 days

                      1. _Ninja_
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Ancelotti, was on ssn.

                  • RamaJama
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 20 days ago

                    On WC.

                    Best keeper for both GW 18 and 19?

                    1. Dexters Laboratory
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        DDG?

                      • Miguel Sanchez
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        DDG
                        Areola
                        Ederson

                      • Pukki Party
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Ederson

                      • RichieW
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Ederson easily

                      • abhirup780
                        • 6 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        DDG for GW18 -GW26

                    2. Pukki Party
                      • 3 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      Thoughts on FH here?

                      Guaita
                      Cancelo Holding Ampadu
                      KdB Sterling Son Bruno Smith-Rowe
                      Kane Wilson

                      4.0 Kilma Brewster Mitchell

                    3. THFC4LIFE
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      Down to 6 players now with that DCL news, have 2ft’s though and could take a hit.

                      Chilwell Salah DCL to Dias Rashford Lacazette -4

                      Then Rashford and Lacazette to Salah and Antonio -4 in gw19

                      What you think?

                      1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 8 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Just FH mate.

                    4. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      This FH is absolutely head melting! Being conscious not to pick the bigger players for the sake of it as this is essentially a 1 week punt... Is that just overthinking things though and better to play it safe... 18 and 19 absolutely pivotal in how this season swings.

                      1. Pukki Party
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Can't fit in any differential punts either with these Spurs news, would have been more fun with no Spurs tbh.

                    5. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      FH team set for now, pending any other news? 0 ITB. Darlow v Lloris to upgrade bench? Stones v Shaw?

                      Lloris (4.0)
                      Cancelo Stones Tierney (Mitchell 3.9
                      KDB(c) Bruno Son Saka (Stephens)
                      Kane Lacazette Richarlison

                      Thanks 🙂

                      1. Ady87
                        • 7 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        What’s your plan next week?

                      2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
                        • 9 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Isn't richa a doubt too

                      3. RichieW
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Shaw is doubtful

                    6. GS456
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      Where’s the Wilson rumours coming from?

                      1. Silecro
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        What rumour?

                        1. GS456
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 5 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          Previous pages saying he is a doubt

                      2. DA Minnion
                        • 8 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        The rumour mill.

                      3. Pukki Party
                        • 3 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        That he will score a brace?

                    7. konrad.sygula95
                      • 3 Years
                      1 month, 20 days ago

                      How do you like my FH team?

                      Darlow
                      Stones/Dier/Holding
                      Rashford/ Son/Fernandes/KDB/Smith Rowe
                      Kane/DCL

                      1. Dexters Laboratory
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          Sell DCL.. Injured

                      2. wulfranian
                        • 4 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Is Kane a must have in FH?

                        1. Wings Fan
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          At home to Fulham - yes

                      3. Ady87
                        • 7 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        What’s the upside on saving FH - to use it on another BGW later in the season? Or even DGW? This is quite a good week to use it in terms of City having Brighton, Newcastle having SHU, United having Burnley, Spurs having Fulham, Arsenal having Palace - an out of form Pool and Chelsea missing isn’t the end of the world as they could well have bombed anyway.

                        1. @ocprodigy
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          For me personally, the issue is (and I'm now stuck given current news) you'll barely gain places - everyone will have the same players playing (or thereabouts). I wanted to keep my FH, and then FH the DGW to have 11 players playing twice - which I'm still keen on doing.

                          I already have most of the "backbone" of the FH squads, so is there a bonus to me FH'ing for the purpose of a few players who may not even return? Hard to say.

                        2. Dark Side Of The Loon!
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          What if you have 7 playing with all those teams covered?

                      4. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 5 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Are Spurs confirmed as having a fixture in 18?

                        1. McSauce
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 11 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          ye VS Fulham

                          1. Hotdogs for Tea
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 5 Years
                            1 month, 20 days ago

                            thanks, just noticed already added

                      5. Iain Dowies Love Child
                        • 11 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        I have 6 players plus Dale Stephens (!) and 2FTs - should I be free-hitting?

                        1. Rhodes your boat
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          No think you’ll be fine just use your 2ft’s what’s you team looking like?

                        2. sunzip14
                          • 4 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          depends on who those 6 are

                          1. Iain Dowies Love Child
                            • 11 Years
                            1 month, 20 days ago

                            Dier, Dias, Stones, Bruno, Neto, Kane

                      6. McSauce
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 11 Years
                        1 month, 20 days ago

                        Who scores more points this week;

                        A) Lacca
                        B) Rashford

                        Its either 351 with Rash Or 343 with Lacca

                        1. Pukki Party
                          • 3 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          B

                        2. Dexters Laboratory
                            1 month, 20 days ago

                            Laca

                        3. FPL Kaka
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 5 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          Is Jesus a good option now for FH?

                          Kun is isolating and is ruled out

                        4. King Kohli
                          • 8 Years
                          1 month, 20 days ago

                          Any news on Anguissa?
                          Need his 2 pts this week.
                          Was not part of the FA cup squad